Quacs Posted June 7, 2014 Author Share Posted June 7, 2014 This set has not even been out for 2 years. 2017 would be a realistic retirement date. Released Sept. 1, 2012, nearly 2 years. The point still stands - lots of investors love (and have been hoarding) this set....as for most investors holding HH and that having an effect on price...will only apply for a 2 year period after retirement...from what i can tell, "most" investors don't have the capital or patience to see a maximum return on their sets and aren't holding for more than a year or two after retirement. This seems pretty speculative. You could be right, but in the end I think it's still a numbers game, especially if you're expecting CC or GG type returns. The more sets there are out there, the longer they will take to appreciate. The more investors that are hoarding this set, the more investors there are willing to hold these for more than two years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asharerin Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Released Sept. 1, 2012, nearly 2 years. The point still stands - lots of investors love (and have been hoarding) this set. I am not arguing against your point that the reselling supply is going to be mammoth on this set. I am pointing out that the idea of HH going this year is quite ridiculous. I agree wholeheartedly the days of 2007 returns are long gone for a variety of reasons. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoNotInsertIntoMouth Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Released Sept. 1, 2012, nearly 2 years. The point still stands - lots of investors love (and have been hoarding) this set. This seems pretty speculative. You could be right, but in the end I think it's still a numbers game, especially if you're expecting CC or GG type returns. The more sets there are out there, the longer they will take to appreciate. The more investors that are hoarding this set, the more investors there are willing to hold these for more than two years. Ill hold something 20 years if it keeps growing by 20% a year. I actually agree with djiim in the fact that most people only hold stuff for 1 - 2 years. But that is really only because in most cases it makes sense. There are so many new sets, new winners, etc. you only want to hold stuff as long as its going to keep growing. Example: If you have sold any of these sets before now, you lost money: 10179 Falcon (This is on the edge. If you got 3 grand for it, thats hard to argue with) Cafe Corner Market Street Grand Carousel Taj Mahal Eiffel Tower If you still have these sets, you probably should have already sold them: UCS Xwing, Star Destroyer, Death Star 2 Just a few examples. Thats why I have already sold 75% of my stock of Wolverine and Hulk sets even though they have only been gone less than a year. But I will hold Helms deep and the other LOTR sets for 2-3 years. I might hold the Bwings I have for 5-6 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsrt8 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 2017 really explains why lego stores don't have them and aren't getting anymore and legoland discovery even says same thing. After this year its done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsrt8 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Also let's remb. Stated before this isn't a creator modular line this is a themed line 2 years is up this year its not gona be 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoNotInsertIntoMouth Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 2017 really explains why lego stores don't have them and aren't getting anymore and legoland discovery even says same thing. After this year its done. I haven't been around for just more than a year now, but its obvious you have been around a lot less. This literally means nothing. Stuff goes in and out of stock constantly, becomes hard to find constantly. it doesn't mean crap. Here are some examples: 1. Batcave near the end of last. Gone everywhere well before Christmas. None at Lego stores, none at Walmarts or Targets. Price rose to $115. Back in full style now at literally every retail place. 2. Architecture Studio - obviously. 3.Whats happening now with the Mars Rover 4. Whats been happening right this moment with the SSD yet it comes back. 5. Ahemm... Jabba's Palace anyone? 6. Cat woman cycle. There are countless more. It just literally means nothing. Its still online, you can still purchase it from literally every retailer out there. Could it be gone this year? Certainly. Is there any likely sign? No. Not one. You know why? Because they don't exist anymore. Until "retired product" (and there are some people that would argue even against that) is on a set. You don't know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djim Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Emazers has over 70 of these. Exactly. I'm largely taking the emazers approach to Lego investments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naf Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Also let's remb. Stated before this isn't a creator modular line this is a themed line 2 years is up this year its not gona be 5. Haunted House needs to be looked at as it's own thing even though it has the Monster Fighters label on it. I would not be surpised to see this set live on through next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsrt8 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Well I'm still stocking up every week no matter so its all fun and games speculating. But let's talk cash a few years from now. I'm not dragging this out anymore no one knows even people that have been in this for years. I'm not as new as you think new to investing but collecting almost all my life I watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
comicblast Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 You all are both missing the biggest detractor. It literally doesn't make much of a difference how nice the set is. There are probably 50X more Haunted Houses out in the wild at least. Its about rarity. There will always be 10x more Haunted Houses for sale down the road then there were for the Cafe Corner at the same time. More Supply = more competition and options = less price. Look at the Fire Brigade where all these people were going crazy about it. Its already slowed down and its not even to $300 yet. You think its going to get to $800? Not a chance. And the Haunted House could be around even longer than it was. Agreed. In fact, I think I would argue that there are more HH's, FB's, etc. than many medium-ish sets. The market is way oversaturated. There are more SSD's in the hands of investors than people who actually would build the set for a post-retirement price of $800. I see it at $700 tops in three years. You could make double that on the same investment on smaller, rarer sets. Also let's remb. Stated before this isn't a creator modular line this is a themed line 2 years is up this year its not gona be 5. For the HH, I don't think the Monster Fighters theme has much to do with the relavence of a single set. If that arguement is relavent, then we could also argue that ever set released in a certain year has to retire at exactly the same time, which obviously isn't true. I think the HH can survive on the normal consumer's market WITHOUT any of the complementary sets. How about a comparison to that Vampyre Castle craze late last year? Yes, that worked out well. 2017 really explains why lego stores don't have them and aren't getting anymore and legoland discovery even says same thing. After this year its done. Lastly, do not, do not, do not, trust what a LEGO Store employee says, nor what a Discover Center employee says. They know just as much about retirement information as you do. I thought the forum learned that from the 3 years of forum conversation about the Death Star retiring. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naf Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Until "retired product" (and there are some people that would argue even against that) is on a set. You don't know. Being sold out at TRU is the new "retired product" tag. See Vampyre Castle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsrt8 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Yeah but when I can't buy anymore in local store instead of risking shipping and they haven't got in any for months there's a sign we will see that is all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsrt8 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Isn't this thread open to speculation so many people missed that topic header. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoNotInsertIntoMouth Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Isn't this thread open to speculation so many people missed that topic header. Yes - but when people say things as though they are facts, hence the argument. Being sold out at TRU is the new "retired product" tag. See Vampyre Castle. Very good point as well. Sets just stay there forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allen9917 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Its still online, you can still purchase it from literally every retailer out there. Could it be gone this year? Certainly. Is there any likely sign? No. Not one. You know why? Because they don't exist anymore. Until "retired product" (and there are some people that would argue even against that) is on a set. You don't know. This is exactly what I have been thinking as I don't see sign of EOL so far. Yes it may be out of the local lego store but there are so many exclusives and new sets coming out and there are only limited space in a lego local store. HH is still available at Walmart, Target, and TRU. If target and walmart put GC offer on it again I'd love to pick up a few but with MSRP and such big boxes there is high cost of holding them much longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsrt8 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 How long did fire brigade last at toyrus after retired tag? Not long probably larger exclusives will be bought up something like the castle is a different level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anon33 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 How long did fire brigade last at toyrus after retired tag? Not long probably larger exclusives will be bought up something like the castle is a different level.Fire Brigade was all ready sold out in U.S Toys R Us stores; however, they were still available in Canadian Toys R Us stores. I am not sure about Europe. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Brickpicker mobile app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNH1974 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Fire Brigade was all ready sold out in U.S Toys R Us stores; however, they were still available in Canadian Toys R Us stores. I am not sure about Europe. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Brickpicker mobile app FB was still available in NZ stores in March. Pity I could not fit one in the suitcase. I regards to the HH, it may be round for a while yet. 10193, a 2009 castle set, hung around for nearly 4 years, right throughout the Kingdoms themes run. It only went when the new Castle sets were announced. Price wise, it shot up 30-40% at EOL. And has not budged since. HH may do the same........ ......we just don't know...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wazzapova Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 My girl Maria Sharapova won the French Open again for the 2nd time! Yay! The Haunted House is awesome for so many reasons but it is a "modular" set that swings open like the Simpsons house! It has a very rare Zombie chef...which works so well in my apocalyptic Parisian Restaurant I'm building. And it has Victorian styling! So rare! And I think Vampyre bride's dress is exclusive than how she is represented in Vampyre Castle! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 (...) my apocalyptic Parisian Restaurant I'm building. Please once it's finished create a topic and share pictures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grolim Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 FB was still available in NZ stores in March. Pity I could not fit one in the suitcase. I still know of a few stores here with it in stock now. I'm not buying any more as I have to sell into the same market and due to the size of the set "exporting" is expensive and means I need a way bigger margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoNotInsertIntoMouth Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 How long did fire brigade last at toyrus after retired tag? Not long probably larger exclusives will be bought up something like the castle is a different level. You have to remember - this wasn't marked up there. The SSD is marked up to $550 or something like that. Thats why these sets still around. Vamp Castle is $120 and Palpatines arrest is like $110. If FireBrigade had been $200 like some of their other modulars, it would have sat longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthias Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Does anyone has a idea when the Tower Bridge wil retire ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holleman67 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Does anyone has a idea when the Tower Bridge wil retire ? My crystal ball says next year. Honestly no one knows, it's speculative. We can only guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legopocalypse Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 it's already been out for 4 years so my best guess would be either end of this year or most likely end of 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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