Retiring Soon - open speculation

[spener90]

18 minutes ago, kouks said:

Any chance 10262 - JB Aston Martin goes this year?   Don't think I have seen it on any retiring lists?

I doubt it. It seems to be the forgotten creator car on most boards though. It will likely be a candidate for 2021, with No Time to Die coming out next year.

[Val-E]

5 hours ago, Darth_Raichu said:

One interesting thing to note.  Just a few years ago if you told me LEGO was retiring 200+ sets, I would have asked if they were closing business.  

We live in interesting time.  There are side effects of having this huge of catalog that we won't see until 2022 or beyond.

It´s more than 200 if we count the summer ones. It has been like that since I started following retirements, always above 200 for the whole year.

That means about 30% of the range is renewed every year.

[elmaslıefendi]

6 hours ago, Darth_Raichu said:

One interesting thing to note.  Just a few years ago if you told me LEGO was retiring 200+ sets, I would have asked if they were closing business.  

We live in interesting time.  There are side effects of having this huge of catalog that we won't see until 2022 or beyond.

The market is flooded, I don't know how long this game will still be playable until the bubble bursts. Not for long.

QFLLs will reign this Empire for the 2 weeks a new hyped set comes out, that's gonna be it.

[ravenb99]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

It´s more than 200 if we count the summer ones. It has been like that since I started following retirements, always above 200 for the whole year.

That means about 30% of the range is renewed every year.

at the end of last year this years was 47 summer and 179 end of year for a total of 226,  been a few revisions of extensions and shortenings since then though so low 200s will be about right

last year was like 47 summer and 248 winter ,  year before was somewhere in the mid to upper 200s I belive too but those were the 2 years they finally started letting go of stuff after extending stuff from 2015/2016.  

I have 2016 somewhere but that would require effort and lots of spreadsheets to search

[ravenb99]

Dug through some other exit dates from system which is a little different and not fully accurate (well more accurate in the sense that is wasn't actually available anymore but retirement was actually earlier), but 323 products left in 2016 and 345 left in 2017.   Some of those were holdovers from excess stock though like Birds.  Also had some random stuff like polybags, promos, minifigs and stuff.    

[Val-E]

16 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

at the end of last year this years was 47 summer and 179 end of year for a total of 226,  been a few revisions of extensions and shortenings since then though so low 200s will be about right

last year was like 47 summer and 248 winter ,  year before was somewhere in the mid to upper 200s I belive too but those were the 2 years they finally started letting go of stuff after extending stuff from 2015/2016.  

I have 2016 somewhere but that would require effort and lots of spreadsheets to search

Yeah it falls in line with when their growth and profit started falling. It also depends on what themes went in and out. IIRC

2016: exit Scooby Doo, Jurassic 1.0, Bionicle / In Jurassic 1.0, Angry Birds, Nexo, Disney Princess.

2017: exit SH Girls, Angry Birds  / In: , SH Girls, Brickheadz, Ninjago and Batman Movie

2018: Exit Nexo, Elves, Brickheadz, Ninjago Movie. LBM / IN: Potter,  Solo JW 2.0

2019: Exit Powerpuff, LM2, Unikitty, Solo, Jurassic 2.0 / IN: LM2

Edited November 6, 2019 by Val-E

[Legojona]

I don't really understand the discussion about the number of retired sets each year. Since 2010 there are a lot of sets released by Lego, of which almost anything (even tower bridges and eventually t1), will retire. Logically each year about the same amount of sets will retire. 

Here are the numbers of bricklink of retired sets per year (also include gear etc, but looking at normal sets it is the same growth) :

 

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Legojona

[crayxlp]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Yeah it falls in line with when their growth and profit started falling. It also depends on what themes went in and out. IIRC

2016: exit Scooby Doo, Jurassic 1.0, Bionicle / In Jurassic 1.0, Angry Birds, Nexo, Disney Princess.

2017: exit SH Girls, Angry Birds  / In: , SH Girls, Brickheadz, Ninjago and Batman Movie

2018: Exit Nexo, Elves, Brickheadz, Ninjago Movie. LBM / IN: Potter,  Solo JW 2.0

2019: Exit Powerpuff, LM2, Unikitty, Solo, Jurassic 2.0 / IN: LM2

LEGO Batman movie sets await bright tomorrows .. you will see ..

[ravenb99]

4 minutes ago, Legojona said:

I don't really understand the discussion about the number of retired sets each year. Since 2010 there are a lot of sets released by Lego, of which almost anything (even tower bridges and eventually t1), will retire.

Here are the numbers of bricklink of retires sets per year:

 

 

that counts a bunch of BS no one gives a crap about like MF's individually, all the pods, other bs 

Running active real sets is always in the 500 range.  About 200-300 go out but new stuff always being released.

That is not close to accurate of what matters as far as sets.

[Val-E]

run  bricklink keyword searches containing STAR WARS+FIGHTER, CITY+HELICOPTER and FRIENDS+HOUSE and you´ll get 95% of the ins and outs.

[Legojona]

6 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

that counts a bunch of BS no one gives a crap about like MF's individually, all the pods, other bs 

Running active real sets is always in the 500 range.  About 200-300 go out but new stuff always being released.

That is not close to accurate of what matters as far as sets.

For 2018 about 500 normal sets (see image) were released just likt every year after 2010. Lego releases loads of sets pretty consistently. 

[Dark Helmet]

Oh God. How did we just merge the bubble has burst thread with this? I thought that was Quarantined. 

[ravenb99]

8 minutes ago, Legojona said:

For 2018 about 500 normal sets (see image) were released just likt every year after 2010. Lego releases loads of sets pretty consistently. 

obv you didn't look at that list,  polybags, hardlines sets, seasonal sets, monthly builds, GWP's, minifigs listed seperately.  None of that shows up on a product order form.  Some of it is on a hardlines order form but you will never see dates on that stuff.

[eliminator]

75212 Kessel Run Millennium Falcon not retiring this year?

[Sfcommando14]

75212 Kessel Run Millennium Falcon not retiring this year?

I believe most/all the solo sets were mid-year retirees.

[Legojona]

7 hours ago, ravenb99 said:

obv you didn't look at that list,  polybags, hardlines sets, seasonal sets, monthly builds, GWP's, minifigs listed seperately.  None of that shows up on a product order form.  Some of it is on a hardlines order form but you will never see dates on that stuff.

My point is the number of new sets are similar each year which can be shown by looking at the total amount of sets. I understand your point about polybags and such but even if you just count all sets above 100 pieces you would have: 

2019: about 300
2018: about 300
2017: about 310
2016: about 260 (low because star wars figs and dimensions were low piece count)
2015: about 280

In short: The amount of retired sets each year should be similar as what is going in, must come out. So, I think you guys are seeing things that are not there. 

Enough about this, though. 

[brecki]

Someone earlier speculated that the 40352 Scarecrow could be a surprising EOL as it is a new article and the market would not expect it to have such a short lifespan.

I didn't believe that this could happen, but  well, not only 40351 Ghost but also 40352 Scarecrow are actually out of stock in Germany.

Maybe it's a one and done? If so, prices will explode.

Both are seasonal sets and maybe underproduced? A maximum buy of two peaces allowed (in the german LEGO Shop at Home store) underlines that possibility.

We'll see!

What do you think?

[hockeyweasel]

The seasonal set vignettes and brickheadz used to be reliably seasonal. They'd appear about 2 months to 6 weeks ahead of the holiday and sell out shortly beforehand, although some holidays were often exceptions.  Then a couple of years ago, we started to spy them on shelves the next year at Barnes & Noble, Walmart, etc.  So, yes, those two might be disappearing for this year, but based on precedent, it is rational to believe that they'll be back next year at some outlet.  Yes, their prices might appreciate in the short-term for those fearful of missing out.

Edited November 7, 2019 by hockeyweasel

[Therightbruno]

Not sure how this happened but I'm seeing Brick Banks for 174 euro on Amazon.es!

Bought 3 - some left for the fastest members  I'd say

https://www.amazon.es/LEGO-Creator-Banco-construcción-Multicolor/dp/B01AC1E0CA/ref=sr_1_2?__mk_es_ES=ÅMÅŽÕÑ&keywords=lego+creator+banco&qid=1573140632&s=toys&sr=1-2

 

[Therightbruno]

15 minutes ago, Therightbruno said:

Not sure how this happened but I'm seeing Brick Banks for 174 euro on Amazon.es!

Bought 3 - some left for the fastest members  I'd say

https://www.amazon.es/LEGO-Creator-Banco-construcción-Multicolor/dp/B01AC1E0CA/ref=sr_1_2?__mk_es_ES=ÅMÅŽÕÑ&keywords=lego+creator+banco&qid=1573140632&s=toys&sr=1-2

 

Back to 349 euro I see...

[cladner]

some retiring soon tags are up on US LEGO Shop at Home site...   us capitol, great wall of china. lockwood indoraptor.  few others.

Edited November 11, 2019 by cladner

[skinsfan0521]

1 hour ago, cladner said:

some retiring soon tags are up on US LEGO Shop at Home site...   us capitol, great wall of china. lockwood indoraptor.  few others.

Yeah, very few sets have the tag. Like 15 or less. But, hey, it's a start! 

[Val-E]

25 minutes ago, skinsfan0521 said:

Yeah, very few sets have the tag. Like 15 or less. But, hey, it's a start! 

A webmaster´s work is never done, especially when the web is Lego Shop.

[joneyyy1981]

2 hours ago, cladner said:

some retiring soon tags are up on US LEGO Shop at Home site...   us capitol, great wall of china. lockwood indoraptor.  few others.

anyone know how many lockwood indoraptor come in a lego sleeve?

[Frank Brickowski]

4 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

anyone know how many lockwood indoraptor come in a lego sleeve?

too many obviously, since it is included in the first "retiring soon" batch