Retiring Soon - open speculation

[exciter1]

  On 9/26/2019 at 9:27 PM, Al Legorical said:

LEGO Shop at Home is out of stock, after being on sale. Next stop “retired product “ AZ & WM have stock to shift after that it’s gone

.... to the aftermarket ?

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Yes, that's a key set to track in order to trend the entire market.

[chunhengpang]

  On 9/26/2019 at 6:26 PM, beatpoppa said:

3 new Ideas sets announced today included 2 larger playsets... Not sure whether this represents an increase the number of IDEAS offerings available going forward split between small sets and playsets.  OFS and Treehouse sets seem in-line with these larger playsets, but hard to peg what retires given there are no playsets to replace per se... Here are the 5 oldest still selling:

 6/2017 - Apollo Saturn V

2/2018 - Ship In a Bottle

4/2018 - Tron

8/2018 - Voltron

11/2018- Pop-up Book

Can't figure logic of pulling Saturn 5 in 50th anniversary year, but I long ago gave up guessing the hive mind that is TLG.

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All these are going to be retired by 31 Dec 2019

[Al Legorical]

  On 9/27/2019 at 4:52 AM, chunhengpang said:

All these are going to be retired by 31 Dec 2019

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You seem very confident, is this more than a prediction?

If so which markets? It’s very easy to simply make a statement. So what gives you this insight?

[BillyBricks]

  On 9/27/2019 at 11:49 AM, Al Legorical said:

You seem very confident, is this more than a prediction?

If so which markets? It’s very easy to simply make a statement. So what gives you this insight?

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Almost all of his posts are related to retirement dates, with the first coming this December and others as far out as 2021. It'll be interesting to see if this is a new LEGO Messiah to whom we must bow down or another anonymous person on the Internet who just likes to say random things. That would be a bold move to wipe clean the slate for Ideas this December and start fresh. Although I doubt it, I guess we will see in a few months. 

[cladner]

  On 9/27/2019 at 11:49 AM, Al Legorical said:

You seem very confident, is this more than a prediction?

If so which markets? It’s very easy to simply make a statement. So what gives you this insight?

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of course he seems confident.

no one would believe chunhengpang if he said, "Well guys i think prolly all these might/should be retired by 31 Dec 2019."

every year some mysterious low-post # member comes through with a list that is 90-100% accurate.  then we get the riddle and we know where to spend.

[ravenb99]

He's confident for a reason.   Question is which ones of those will actually dry up.  Retirement means a lot less since last year and can guarantee it will be worse this year.

10259, 76100, 75190, 10214 are good examples.  All retired last year.  2 LEGO marked retired but have been available all year and 2 LEGO still is selling themselves along with others cause they have so much excess stock.   

Amazon still sitting on 967 Winter Stations in late Sept.  

There are more sets but those are just a few examples.  LEGO has been having a habit of dumping the last unsold batches to random retailers in large quantities last few years so probably see more of that and then the ones really oversaturated will still be available at multiple retailers even though they aren't in production anymore.

 

[exciter1]

  On 9/27/2019 at 2:46 PM, ravenb99 said:

Question is which ones of those will actually dry up.

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This is key nowadays

[dmind]

  On 9/27/2019 at 2:46 PM, ravenb99 said:

He's confident for a reason.   Question is which ones of those will actually dry up.  Retirement means a lot less since last year and can guarantee it will be worse this year.

10259, 76100, 75190, 10214 are good examples.  All retired last year.  2 LEGO marked retired but have been available all year and 2 LEGO still is selling themselves along with others cause they have so much excess stock.   

Amazon still sitting on 967 Winter Stations in late Sept.  

There are more sets but those are just a few examples.  LEGO has been having a habit of dumping the last unsold batches to random retailers in large quantities last few years so probably see more of that and then the ones really oversaturated will still be available at multiple retailers even though they aren't in production anymore.

 

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Look what I found today...

[ravenb99]

yeah I don't even want to get into how much product EU is sitting on.  That keeps growing the past 2 years as well.  

[Darth_Raichu]

This thread stresses me out more than the bubble thread.  At least in the bubble thread we all know where we are going....
 

Hint: We all float down here

[LegoSteve]

  On 9/27/2019 at 3:57 PM, Darth_Raichu said:

This thread stresses me out more than the bubble thread.  At least in the bubble thread we all know where we are going....
 

Hint: We all float down here

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[BrickLegacy]

  On 9/27/2019 at 3:03 PM, dmind said:

Look what I found today...

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Darin is back?! When did you get the house tour?

[dx0520]

If it’s retired, and you see them everywhere...don’t buy it.

But if you have the capital...buy it all and corner the market...profit.

Investment is completely different between those with capital and those that don’t. And when I mean capital, I mean enough to affect the pricing when you decide to offload.

[chunhengpang]

For those who are interested, I posted before on 10257 to be retired 0n 31 Dec 2020, it seems that the date has been revised to 31 Dec 2019 instead.

[ravenb99]

Speaking of resurrecting from the dead.  Everyone's favorite grey haired admiral will be remaking an appearance very soon...

[Darth_Raichu]

  On 9/27/2019 at 5:40 PM, ravenb99 said:

Speaking of resurrecting from the dead.  Everyone's favorite grey haired admiral will be remaking an appearance very soon...

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Emazer ?

[ravenb99]

  On 9/27/2019 at 5:42 PM, Darth_Raichu said:

Emazer ?

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is pretty close resemblance

[Al Legorical]

  On 9/27/2019 at 5:40 PM, ravenb99 said:

Speaking of resurrecting from the dead.  Everyone's favorite grey haired admiral will be remaking an appearance very soon...

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Now I realize why investors are staying away from everything Star Wars!!

Guess y’all seen the “force Friday” thing on LEGO . Com  honestly I cant believe they are re hashing the falcon again.  

The universe expands with all-new( Reissued ) sets coming October 4th.

In celebration of the upcoming (yet another) movie Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, LEGO Star Wars™ is launching brand new (almost identical) sets to inspire exciting adventures and replay (again and again) favorite scenes from the saga that began (20 years ago, I believe) in a galaxy far, far away.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

  On 9/27/2019 at 7:30 PM, Al Legorical said:

Now I realize why investors are staying away from everything Star Wars!!

Guess y’all seen the “force Friday” thing on LEGO . Com  honestly I cant believe they are re hashing the falcon again.  

The universe expands with all-new( Reissued ) sets coming October 4th.

In celebration of the upcoming (yet another) movie Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, LEGO Star Wars™ is launching brand new (almost identical) sets to inspire exciting adventures and replay (again and again) favorite scenes from the saga that began (20 years ago, I believe) in a galaxy far, far away.

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to be fair, the "new" falcon has the terrible gap problem addressed and comes w/ new MFs (Jang claims the best one of them all); pretty much undermines all teh past sets except for the white one...do ANY of the older MFs have any exclusive minifigures?

[Al Legorical]

  On 9/27/2019 at 8:08 PM, $20 on joe vs dan said:

to be fair, the "new" falcon has the terrible gap problem addressed and comes w/ new MFs (Jang claims the best one of them all); pretty much undermines all teh past sets except for the white one...do ANY of the older MFs have any exclusive minifigures?

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Not sure without checking. Given the ever increasing $/part I’m speculating (guessing) this one will be pricey

the KR falcon only started moving when it went sub $130, don’t believe I saw it listed at all at rrp

[Yellow Castle]

  On 9/27/2019 at 2:46 PM, ravenb99 said:

10259, 76100, 75190, 10214 are good examples.  All retired last year.  2 LEGO marked retired but have been available all year and 2 LEGO still is selling themselves along with others cause they have so much excess stock.   

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Can we add 70618, DB to this as plenty of bounty’s on eBay here in UK at well below RRP. This is a lovely set but clearly lots of people hoarded and not strong (presently) in the after market.

As for 10259 (IMO a poor design), this might sell better as a bundle once 10254 retires?

Be interested to see what JW or HP go EOL this year.

 

[exracer327]

  On 9/27/2019 at 8:08 PM, $20 on joe vs dan said:

to be fair, the "new" falcon has the terrible gap problem addressed and comes w/ new MFs (Jang claims the best one of them all); pretty much undermines all teh past sets except for the white one...do ANY of the older MFs have any exclusive minifigures?

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75105 has 2-3 exclusive minifigures: 1) Old Han Solo, 2) the Kanjiklub leader (Tasu Leech) and 3) kanjiklub member. 

7965 exclusives are: Luke, Leia, Ben, and Han.

Not sure about the older ones.

[Al Legorical]

Most of my winners from 3-4 years ago appear to share 2 commonalities 

1. Low part out value : purchase price

2. Poor sellers due to either looks/desirability or bad/flawed  design

= they retired after a short run.

I  wonder how much investors and parts sellers impact volume of total sales? I suspect a lot.

There are a lot of folks on this site.  EOL is rumored or announced, they/we all go on a buying spree, sales shoot up, production continues.... maybe?

[Val-E]

  On 9/28/2019 at 12:30 PM, Al Legorical said:

Most of my winners from 3-4 years ago appear to share 2 commonalities 

1. Low part out value : purchase price

2. Poor sellers due to either looks/desirability or bad/flawed  design

= they retired after a short run.

I  wonder how much investors and parts sellers impact volume of total sales? I suspect a lot.

There are a lot of folks on this site.  EOL is rumored or announced, they/we all go on a buying spree, sales shoot up, production continues.... maybe?

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I can´t think of any set that ever got extended life after September nor of one with seal codes after EOL date.

I can think of many sets that stopped production but hung around like a bad smell at SAH or in retailers. Most Lego Movie 2 sets are candidates for this as the EOL date is this year and some have barely been out more than a quarter yet you will find them around for months if not years till the 1.99 clearance stickers come out.

[dmind]

  On 9/28/2019 at 12:30 PM, Al Legorical said:

Most of my winners from 3-4 years ago appear to share 2 commonalities 

1. Low part out value : purchase price

2. Poor sellers due to either looks/desirability or bad/flawed  design

= they retired after a short run.

I  wonder how much investors and parts sellers impact volume of total sales? I suspect a lot.

There are a lot of folks on this site.  EOL is rumored or announced, they/we all go on a buying spree, sales shoot up, production continues.... maybe?

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What do you mean with "1. Low part out value : purchase price" you have examples? My winners have high part out value and low purchase price, e.g. 70643.