Retiring Soon - open speculation

[vexxet]

1 minute ago, tacsniper said:

I wonder how many ppl missed out on this.

wasnt it on sale for that price for like 5 months?

[PlasticDude]

I answered my own question reviewing past posts that yes the set was previously at $54 in October and November which I missed out on. Oh well, I’ll keep one for myself and flip the rest in a year or two. ?

[Ed Mack]

4 minutes ago, PlasticDude said:

So I just bought 4 Holiday Stations from Amazon for $62, now at $105.  I’m thinking this was a good deal.  We’re these cheaper during BLack Friday or Cyber Monday?  Thoughts on deal?

Yes..Good deal even though it sold for $55 in Oct/Nov.

[calmdahn]

16 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

the fallacy of the argument from authority...

What does that even mean?  Sorry, it went over my head.  Time to get back to retiring LEGO sets.  ?

Everybody should familiarize themselves with the logical fallacies. This is the argument from authority: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

[PlasticDude]

1 minute ago, Ed Mack said:

Yes..Good deal even though it sold for $55 in Oct/Nov.

Yeah, my posts are delayed through moderator review, thanks for the validation ??  Just got into flipping sets about 6 mo, been trolling the site and learning. Figure I’m now to a point of contributing and engaging in convos ?

[Ed Mack]

1 minute ago, calmdahn said:

Everybody should familiarize themselves with the logical fallacies. This is the argument from authority: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

I still don't get it.  Sorry, my head hurts sometimes when I think too hard.  It's like the "straw man argument/fallacy."  What the F is that?  LOL.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

Anyone know if LEGO is purposely making how sets get retired guesswork?

Such a huge trade secret apparently. For a relatively predictable company, they are certainly guarding the retirement chain

the company has been around for decades and there has been thousands of sets...yet everyone is still reading tea leaves?

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Anyone know if LEGO is purposely making how sets get retired guesswork?

Such a huge trade secret apparently. For a relatively predictable company, they are certainly guarding the retirement chain

the company has been around for decades and there has been thousands of sets...yet everyone is still reading tea leaves?

The inner circle know the retiring sets months ahead and plan accordingly. If you are out of that loop then you are a tea leaves guy with a major disadvantage. Doesn´t mean you can´t strike gold but you are trying to catch lightning in teacup. Urrggg I think I just ovedosed on clichés....

[Legojona]

4 hours ago, calmdahn said:

Everybody should familiarize themselves with the logical fallacies. This is the argument from authority: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

You should familiarize yourself with the fact that this is a bias. This does not mean all arguments from authority are wrong.  

I think you're going a downward spiral of trying to prove a point nobody else is really interested in. Don't let yourself get worked up and just enjoy the fact that we're all sharing our passion for lego and business here. 

Regarding the best way to see what are the sets to buy, I would recommend: 

- look at how many people say they've got a set on brickset.com (might be saturated)
- Look at Brickinsights to see how people rate sets
- Look at performance of past sets that are similar. 
- Look at sets that are offered at a discount
- Really take the size of a set into consideration as storage will cost you.
- For estimating a retirement it is good to check how long similar sets used to run for.

Added comment: I'm in no way an authority, so you can trust me

Edited December 4, 2018 by Legojona
comment

[exciter1]

Yes..Good deal even though it sold for $55 in Oct/Nov.

It was $55 with a $10 gift card at Target several times and also an extra 20% off through Google Express. Someone will always out deal with practically every set, but do what works for you (not Ed, his strategy is something totally different).

Like with any great novel, the pictures are stunning in the book.

[redcell]

Me too.  Let me know when you get the answer.

Amazon

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[redcell]

Anyone know if LEGO is purposely making how sets get retired guesswork?
Such a huge trade secret apparently. For a relatively predictable company, they are certainly guarding the retirement chain
the company has been around for decades and there has been thousands of sets...yet everyone is still reading tea leaves?

If you watch the market long enough, you will realize that it is generally not guesswork. There are very clear patterns to their product cycle that make retirement dates highly predictable for many sets. Can you predict every retirement date? No. For whatever reason, Lego retires some sets far earlier than anyone would ever expect and extends other far longer than anyone would ever want. But if you watch long enough, it's not hard to predict at least 70% of the sets that will retire in a given year without having any inside info.

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[Frank Brickowski]

6 hours ago, calmdahn said:

Everybody should familiarize themselves with the logical fallacies. This is the argument from authority: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

Knowing about logical fallacies alone doesn't help you much if you don't see when they apply and when they don't. In this present case your personal fallacy lies in the erroneous assumption that Ed Mack is basing the validity of his arguments on his authority. The truth is his arguments are based on experience.

[Ed Mack]

7 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Knowing about logical fallacies alone doesn't help you much if you don't see when they apply and when they don't. In this present case your personal fallacy lies in the erroneous assumption that Ed Mack is basing the validity of his arguments on his authority. The truth is his arguments are based on experience.

Thanks...I have a title for the next book...THE BRICK AUTHORITY.  There won't be a book.  Slave wages.  

[Frank Brickowski]

3 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Thanks...I have a title for the next book...THE BRICK AUTHORITY.  There won't be a book.  Slave wages.  

Try making it an e-book on amazon.

[Ed Mack]

38 minutes ago, redcell said:

Amazon

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Yes.  Amazon is the key.  The key to buy and sell.  Without it, the world of reselling is in serious trouble.

31 minutes ago, redcell said:

If you watch the market long enough, you will realize that it is generally not guesswork. There are very clear patterns to their product cycle that make retirement dates highly predictable for many sets. Can you predict every retirement date? No. For whatever reason, Lego retires some sets far earlier than anyone would ever expect and extends other far longer than anyone would ever want. But if you watch long enough, it's not hard to predict at least 70% of the sets that will retire in a given year without having any inside info.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Brickpicker Forum mobile app
 

I agree with this.  A person has to keep informed and pay attention and most retirements can be predicted to within a few months.  There are exceptions and many here will make note of that and complain, but considering there are over 700+ LEGO items for sale on any given year, there is a pattern.  The majority of sets retire at this time of year.  If a set makes it through this time of year, many will make it to the next holiday season.  Not all, but many.

[calmdahn]

19 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Knowing about logical fallacies alone doesn't help you much if you don't see when they apply and when they don't. In this present case your personal fallacy lies in the erroneous assumption that Ed Mack is basing the validity of his arguments on his authority. The truth is his arguments are based on experience.

The reason it’s a fallacy in this case is because it’s the only argument he advanced when I asked him to give reasons why the book was worthwhile, not because he’s not an authority, but rather because he gave no evidence of his authority, which is specifically what I asked for. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Try making it an e-book on amazon.

As much as I enjoyed the process and finished products, it is so time consuming.  I was up until 2-3AM for months writing and that was not including the hours I put in when I was working my real job.  I think we got paid like $5000.00 each to do the book.  Divide that by hundreds of hours, it is not worth it.

1 minute ago, calmdahn said:

The reason it’s a fallacy in this case is because it’s the only argument he advanced when I asked him to give reasons why the book was worthwhile, not because he’s not an authority, but rather because he gave no evidence of his authority, which is specifically what I asked for. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

I think we can move on from this.  You didn't realize who I was.  I assumed you knew.  No biggie.  

[Frank Brickowski]

2 minutes ago, calmdahn said:

The reason it’s a fallacy in this case is because it’s the only argument he advanced when I asked him to give reasons why the book was worthwhile, not because he’s not an authority, but rather because he gave no evidence of his authority, which is specifically what I asked for. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

It seems like you didn't really understand the wikipedia article you linked above, in the first place. When somebody is sparing with words because he knows the community won't have any issues identifying his post as self-ironic, rather than using his taciturnity as a hint at his argument-validating authority, your whole "fallacity" argumentation is nothing but out of place.

11 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

As much as I enjoyed the process and finished products, it is so time consuming.  I was up until 2-3AM for months writing and that was not including the hours I put in when I was working my real job.  I think we got paid like $5000.00 each to do the book.  Divide that by hundreds of hours, it is not worth it.

I see.

[Achilles]

7 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Anyone know if LEGO is purposely making how sets get retired guesswork?

Such a huge trade secret apparently. For a relatively predictable company, they are certainly guarding the retirement chain

the company has been around for decades and there has been thousands of sets...yet everyone is still reading tea leaves?

"If it was easy everyone would do it" -

I don't mean this to come off as condescending, but there are no easy answers. I have been doing this for several years, and I am still learning, adapting, and refining my processes. I am sure several of the vets here would echo that sentiment. But there are tools, sites like this one, and others, that can help you learn and grow. But like most things, the best teacher is practice.

Even without insider info, there are ways to make educated guesses as to what is retiring - there are some predictable trends, and not so predictable trends - For example, we know what themes LEGO is still using in 2019, and we can see that "LEGO Batman Movie", "Cars", "NEXO Knights" and "Elves" are not among them - so we know those sets are retiring. 

From themes that are continuing, such as DC Super Heroes, LEGO typically only has one BIG SET (140 ish price point) for each super hero line, currently Flying Fox for DC And the Sanctum for Marvel. Flying Fox has been out for a year and a half (Release dates available on Brickset.com), so it's an educated guess to assume that set is on its way out, even without having any other info. 

Some other info we do have on this set however is that it's been cleared out from most major retailers at steep discounts. That also can usually be taken as a sign of something retiring.

Every set retires eventually. Some sets bring better returns than others at a different timeline and for different storage spaces. All those nuances are things you'll have to figure out yourself. From my example above, I think most serious LEGO investors are shying away from most LEGO Batman Movie and Cars sets, even at steep discounts. Elves seem to be a mixed bag, and I find NEXO Knights interesting. After the relative flop that I consider most of CHIMA to be, I avoided a lot of NEXO - And some of those sets have actually appreciated quite well - and I just haven't put much into the theme. 

But as someone else said, you can't buy it all. And some decisions will be winners, some will be losers. If you have more winners than losers, you're doing well. Personally, I have more Joker Steamrollers and Gorzan Gorilla Strikers than I care to admit. But I have far more Gorilla Grodd goes Bannanas and Joker Manors to make up for it. And here's the thing, MOST "losers" still sell for close to MSRP, so if you bought at a decent discount, 40% or more - You're still going to make a few bucks or come out even. That's one of the things I like about doing this, since at worst you are likely to break even - It's a pretty decent risk. The sets I have bought over the years that sold for less than MSRP 2-3 after retirement I can count on one hand. 

If I were to give advice to someone just getting involved, I would say this: Have a budget and a plan. Don't overspend. Be realistic. And definitely do not buy every set that's retiring or every set that's 50% off. THERE IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO BUY. There are better/more efficient ways to go about it all, but as we all keep echoing - things are changing constantly. The Amazon gating thing is kind of a big deal. I don't even know if I *could* start doing this today with a goal of making money. Once you're already entrenched and have a system/rotation, it's a different game. 

Even as someone who has done this a while, and who (I consider) to have decent success, I would be lying if I said I totally understood it. I really thought 31038 Changing Seasons was going to be successful, and it has turned out to be pretty much a dud (even though I personally love the set). I would have never guessed that a set like 31032 Red Creatures would have been the smash that it is, but I ended up with a fair amount of them anyway. 

You are here, which is a major step. I was doing this for years before I discovered this site, and the information and experience found here have been instrumental in helping me grow. So from here, I'd say do a little research, dip your toes in, and see how it goes. 

Edited December 4, 2018 by Achilles

[redcell]

19 minutes ago, Achilles said:

But as someone else said, you can't buy it all. And some decisions will be winners, some will be losers. If you have more winners than losers, you're doing well. Personally, I have more Joker Steamrollers and Gorzan Gorilla Strikers than I care to admit. But I have far more Gorilla Grodd goes Bannanas and Joker Manors to make up for it. And here's the thing, MOST "losers" still sell for close to MSRP, so if you bought at a decent discount, 40% or more - You're still going to make a few bucks or come out even. That's one of the things I like about doing this, since at worst you are likely to break even - It's a pretty decent risk. The sets I have bought over the years that sold for less than MSRP 2-3 after retirement I can count on one hand. 

 

This is one of the best things about reselling Lego.  Last year I sold 290 different sets, lost money on 7 of them, and had a profit margin greater than 100% on 98 of them.  

[Guest TabbyBoy]

The good thing about LEGO is, even if the set is utter crap, the pieces inside still have value and can be sold. I've even started parting out my remaining Exo Suits to sell the pieces and minifigs separately. I think the "secret" these days is trying to gauge how desirable a set will be in the future rather than when it retires. If I knew the retirements dates of modulars and Star Wars UCS, it would've made no difference, apart from QFLLing the Town Hall. Personally, I'd like to know production amounts and divide this by the expected number of people that will want that set.

[barneyman]

35 minutes ago, redcell said:

This is one of the best things about reselling Lego.  Last year I sold 290 different sets, lost money on 7 of them, and had a profit margin greater than 100% on 98 of them.  

interesting stats, I am in the uk and after 18 months of selling I have sold a similar number (around 320) and made about 80% return which is after eBay/postage/paypal but before taxes...

Compared to interest rates in bank accounts/isa's this is a healthy return and also more fun!

I haven't sold anything at a loss yet but that's because I haven't put those potential sets up for sale yet, lol...

[dennugsmello]

5 hours ago, redcell said:

Amazon

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What can us non Amazon sellers do to survive? From what I understand new sellers cannot sell LEGO on Amazon, correct?

I've been an Ebay seller for a while, mainly out of print boardgames, which has similarities to LEGO reselling. High demand out of print games for example. Over the last year I have diversified into LEGO, and now have a hearty supply of sets. I was considering staking claim onto a Wal-Mart third party store? Might that be a good idea for those of us who missed the Amazon store train?

[hockeyweasel]

2 hours ago, redcell said:

This is one of the best things about reselling Lego.  Last year I sold 290 different sets, lost money on 7 of them, and had a profit margin greater than 100% on 98 of them.  

I bow to you.  I have to be happy with my 20%-30% profit margins, but I'm also satisfied with the hobby aspect of reselling and running a business.