Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Ed Mack]

Then Modulars will always have fans and collectors that will want every one to complete their collection or display.  The Haunted House was not really a Modular IMO and many anal LEGO collectors would never include one in their "town."  Modulars will have their ups and downs, but my money is on more ups than downs.

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, Ed Mack said:

Then Modulars will always have fans and collectors that will want every one to complete their collection or display.  The Haunted House was not really a Modular IMO and many anal LEGO collectors would never include one in their "town."  Modulars will have their ups and downs, but my money is on more ups than downs.

Yup, Market Street, HH, OFS and Simpsons sets don´t count as in the modular series any more than the Friends Roller Coaster does in the funfair series.

It´s early days but when people have less of a set they are more likely to sit it out and that is good for prices. Having said that, there is a glut of TH on the market now the price has topped out.

[calmdahn]

1 hour ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Palace Cinema was not meant to set the world on fire, it retired on schedule after a market presence of average duration. Like I said before, it's not very expedient to compare BB to PS or PC just because they were the last (unsuccessful) modular retirements. Better compare it to the only other sub-40 month modular since GG.

And to see Haunted House stagnate does not actually say too much about the potential of modular investing as of now either. I mean, no set will rise in value forever.

If you can’t see the differences between Town Hall and Brick Bank, I don’t know what to tell you. 

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, calmdahn said:

If you can’t see the differences between Town Hall and Brick Bank, I don’t know what to tell you. 

Ass Square retiring early would have been a more interesting comparison.

[ChristopherJB]

1 hour ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Palace Cinema was not meant to set the world on fire, it retired on schedule after a market presence of average duration. Like I said before, it's not very expedient to compare BB to PS or PC just because they were the last (unsuccessful) modular retirements. Better compare it to the only other sub-40 month modular since GG.

And to see Haunted House stagnate does not actually say too much about the potential of modular investing as of now either. I mean, no set will rise in value forever.

That Paris Restaurant........glad I only have 1........if the AS or BB go EOL, they might be worth something. But I'm not going to get too excited about this. I recalled when the Detective Office came out, people were paying over $300USD at one point for it. I sold a few for $280USD right after release during the shortage. So you never know what to expect EOL.

[Ciglione]

1 hour ago, Ed Mack said:

Then Modulars will always have fans and collectors that will want every one to complete their collection or display.  The Haunted House was not really a Modular IMO and many anal LEGO collectors would never include one in their "town."  Modulars will have their ups and downs, but my money is on more ups than downs.

Haunted House does not fit in a City center. But it surely fits nicely in a suburb.

[Val-E]

9 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Haunted House does not fit in a City center. But it surely fits nicely in a suburb.

Put Geoffrey the Giraffe outside and a TRU logo on the front and problem solved!

[Frank Brickowski]

31 minutes ago, calmdahn said:

If you can’t see the differences between Town Hall and Brick Bank, I don’t know what to tell you. 

I was talking about comparisons, not about similarities. I never stated there were no differences between TH and BB, so what's your point?

[ChristopherJB]

All this discussion and I still remember years ago when people were debating about the Star Wars BWing vs the Town Hall. Those Star Wars fans who loaded up the Bwing must be still choking on their inventory.

Back to the point, my guess is the BB outperforms the AS from a % point due to the fact that AS is more expensive to begin with and has less appeal.

[exciter1]

All this discussion and I still remember years ago when people were debating about the Star Wars BWing vs the Town Hall. Those Star Wars fans who loaded up the Bwing must be still choking on their inventory.
Back to the point, my guess is the BB outperforms the AS from a % point due to the fact that AS is more expensive to begin with and has less appeal.

I think you need a history exam.

[Val-E]

16 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

I think you need a history exam.

I believe the debate was whether Lego was worth more than gold and how long it would take R2 to reach 500 or 1000 USD.

Edited November 24, 2018 by Val-E

[redcell]

3 hours ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Palace Cinema was not meant to set the world on fire, it retired on schedule after a market presence of average duration. Like I said before, it's not very expedient to compare BB to PS or PC just because they were the last (unsuccessful) modular retirements. Better compare it to the only other sub-40 month modular since GG.

And to see Haunted House stagnate does not actually say too much about the potential of modular investing as of now either. I mean, no set will rise in value forever.

It's also important to recognize that both PS and PC were at their prime while the interest in Lego investing was pretty high.  At the time, the most comparable sets for post-EOL price comparisons were FB and GE, both of which did well enough in the after-life to justify rolling the dice on PS and PC.  That fact led to an oversupply on the secondary market, which has kept prices down.  Unless you think that people out there are buying as many BBs & DOs as they did PSs and PCs, they are not apt comparisons.  I dumped all of my PSs and PCs when it became clear that they weren't going to follow the same trajectory as FB or GE and I haven't reinvested that money in any of the exclusives that are on the chopping block this year. 

[calmdahn]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

Ass Square retiring early would have been a more interesting comparison.

Yeah, but it’s not, and it ain’t. 

[calmdahn]

2 hours ago, Frank Brickowski said:

I was talking about comparisons, not about similarities. I never stated there were no differences between TH and BB, so what's your point?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[steelmelt]

1 hour ago, ChristopherJB said:

All this discussion and I still remember years ago when people were debating about the Star Wars BWing vs the Town Hall. Those Star Wars fans who loaded up the Bwing must be still choking on their inventory.

Back to the point, my guess is the BB outperforms the AS from a % point due to the fact that AS is more expensive to begin with and has less appeal.

Yeah if you bought the B wing at MSRP you totally must be choking.  But if you were like the rest of us and bought them at what was the last decent black friday sale for 50% off in the USA ... Then, like me, made a ton more money on B wings than TH.  I was doubling my money (even after fees and shipping) on B wings less than two years after EOL.  Ebay right now TH is trending at $470 with free shipping.  Not even close to doubling your money with fees and shipping costs.  

[ravenb99]

All this b wing talk.  What will people think of 16 month y wing runs 

[Yellow Castle]

75172.......I bought a few earlier in year but in hindsight I have vision/face of “Gold Leader” in his final moments before ploughing into The Death Star in The New Hope....Ive been hit....noooooo  

i hope im wrong but recently I have come to conclusion LEGO SW is very hit and miss, more so of late steering more towards Luke’s first attempt down the DS trench.....it’s a miss ?. I hope I’m wrong and it’s a hit ?

Stay on target.........

 

 

[landphieran]

Alright, I spent quite sometime musing over 75172 (Non UCS Version). Below is the row out of my spreadsheet with 1163 being the sales rank.

75172-1

Y-Wing Starfighter

2017

Star Wars Rogue One

1163

41.99

I loaded up my cart all gleeful, then stopped and thought about A Wing vs Tie, Kylo Ren Shuttle, FOT, etc. Began researching most of the current year star craft sets and there sales ranks which were really impressive. Star wars is still popular. Then I start going through last years retired sets sales ranks and they were just okay 50k-100k...

I looked at the previous version 9495. 5 years retired and on FBA for 120$. 

My conclusion:
Star wars sets are great gifts, they are produced in extraordinary amounts, there are WAY TOO MANY sets and thus nearly impossible to "collect them all".
 

Edited November 25, 2018 by landphieran

[ChristopherJB]

1 hour ago, ravenb99 said:

All this b wing talk.  What will people think of 16 month y wing runs 

Y Wing will collect dust. It is not iconic in the Star Wars line.

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, ravenb99 said:

All this b wing talk.  What will people think of 16 month y wing runs 

Retiring soon tag killed the Snowspeeder as an investment and it is still hanging around. They might as well tag the Y Wing in January, like Batcave and Adventure Time.

[Furious_george]

3 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Retiring soon tag killed the Snowspeeder as an investment and it is still hanging around. They might as well tag the Y Wing in January, like Batcave and Adventure Time.

Yep. Down with tags!

[dx0520]

Hey guys, I've only joined recently, but have been selling for awhile.

Here's my contribution to this group. This is a general model, which I adjust depending on the set. In short, it helps me predict if a set takes forever to reach maximum profitability (top right), and if so, then the "optimal" time to sell is somewhere nearer to the center. Granted, the data points are all based on observed trends, promos, and overall "feeling", but it at least helps organize the prediction into a visual model.

FYI:

-The "cost" line is simply 20% below the price line  
- "Affordability" limits market availability to buy at current price, incurring longer wait times to sell

Generally, it's simply a "quick cash / low sell time" vs. "high profit / high sell time"...depends on set of course. But you all knew this...

Cheers!

[glucapg]

42078 is going eol?

Sent from my SM-G955F using Brickpicker Forum mobile app

[Val-E]

Just now, glucapg said:

42078 is going eol?

Sent from my SM-G955F using Brickpicker Forum mobile app
 

No, SAH 30% off today.

[eliminator]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

No, SAH 30% off today.

Too bad not 30% off in USA/Canada. Still full priced here at LEGO Shop at Home.