Retiring Soon - open speculation

[grabbitfast]

4 minutes ago, Villager Chris said:

Very nice. Sadly 75% off any set is unlikely to be repeated in such quantities. Nearly every retailer has limits now.

Ah, the good old days.... 

Yes have to admit that was a one off and I did have to spend an enormous amount of time tracking them.

Lets just hope Argos and Asda stay in the game.

[eliminator]

What D2C sets are we expecting to see retired this holiday season? Holiday Train and/or Station, Ferris Wheel, Cooper Mini, Parisian Restaurant, GBHQ, Slave-1?

Wildcards: Death Star, VW T1, Tower Bridge, Assembly Square, Saturn V...?

Trying to make a plan...

Edited August 15, 2018 by eliminator

[fantomas007]

8 minutes ago, eliminator said:

What D2C sets are we expecting to see retired this holiday season? Holiday Train and/or Station, Ferris Wheel, Cooper Mini, Parisian Restaurant, GBHQ, Slave-1?

Wildcards: Death Star, VW T1, Tower Bridge, Assembly Square, Saturn V...?

Trying to make a plan...

 

My bets:

90% - PR (first in time line of modulars), Holiday train (winter sets has regular EOL)

75 % - Slave (too long life for UCS)

50 % - Ferris Wheel (3 years old, but good for combination with carousel and rollercoaster), Saturn (Ideas set have short live, but this is a hot seller + next year is anniversary of moon landing), Fishing store (same story), GBHQ and Silent Mary (depends on the licence)

0 - 5 % - Death star (why to retire a re-made set after 2 years, while the previous version was here 8 years?), and the rest of exclusives...

unable to predict - VW T1, Tower Bridge (they should be already dead for years), Minicooper (younger than T1, but it can jump it as Ferrari), Assembly Square (special life time for special set?), Disney Castle (it can live for 2 but also 8 years, since it is a special set related to Disney parks)

[eliminator]

12 minutes ago, fantomas007 said:

 

My bets:

90% - PR (first in time line of modulars), Holiday train (winter sets has regular EOL)

75 % - Slave (too long life for UCS)

50 % - Ferris Wheel (3 years old, but good for combination with carousel and rollercoaster), Saturn (Ideas set have short live, but this is a hot seller + next year is anniversary of moon landing), Fishing store (same story), GBHQ and Silent Mary (depends on the licence)

0 - 5 % - Death star (why to retire a re-made set after 2 years, while the previous version was here 8 years?), and the rest of exclusives...

unable to predict - VW T1, Tower Bridge (they should be already dead for years), Minicooper (younger than T1, but it can jump it as Ferrari), Assembly Square (special life time for special set?), Disney Castle (it can live for 2 but also 8 years, since it is a special set related to Disney parks)

Has it really only been 2 years for the "new DS"...wow, felt longer. Yes, it should stay for a while.

IMO, maybe Assembly square goes early, as did the TownHall as it's larger and more expensive that the typical Modular buildings.

Saturn V is a wildcard for me only because Canadian retailers have been liquidating them off. Perhaps a re-box, re-branding on the way? Or perhaps just overstocked.

Tower Bridge has also been on sale 20%+ off in Canada for a set that's never discounted, that might be another sign of its upcoming departure.

[fantomas007]

2 minutes ago, eliminator said:

Has it really only been 2 years for the "new DS"...wow, felt longer. Yes, it should stay for a while.

IMO, maybe Assembly square goes early, as did the TownHall as it's larger and more expensive that the typical Modular buildings.

Saturn V is a wildcard for me only because Canadian retailers have been liquidating them off. Perhaps a re-box, re-branding on the way? Or perhaps just overstocked.

Tower Bridge has also been on sale 20%+ off in Canada for a set that's never discounted, that might be another sign of its upcoming departure.

 

Yes, it has some logic to retire Assembly earlier... Town hall lived for 2.5 years, Assembly will have in january 2 years... I guess it can go to EOL no earlier than in the end of 2019 - problem is that it is very unpredictible - it can finish in 2019, 2020 but also in regular time - 2021 - and holding such big and expensive set in stock for such long time can be killing...

Saturn - cant imagine re-boxing. Maybe a shortage of stock - this set has big problems with the availability even several months after its release... It would be strange to finish such good seller and 1 year before a big hype around moon landing anniversary (the media will be full of this story, so it will be perfect marketing situation for lego).

TB - such discounts can mean nothing - for example, shop@home has many discounted sets during Black Friday, and many of them are far to EOL, although a logic would say that they should discount the finishing sets (for example last year - big ben, silent mary, beettle, GBHQ, taj mahal, only batcave was retiring).

 

[Tomhagen]

The Saturn fascinates me because I think all other recent ideas sets (Doctor Who, Caterham, Beatles etc) have only been around for a year before retirement. It's such a good seller though so can see LEGO keeping it into 2019. Seems to be a lot of supply in the market too. 

[CosmicSpeed]

I bet both the winter train and station retire this season. The station is consistently seeing discounts at the Lego stores and other retailers which would make it a short run. Lots of speculation about this years winter set. We should be hearing soon what it might include. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 hour ago, CosmicSpeed said:

I bet both the winter train and station retire this season. The station is consistently seeing discounts at the Lego stores and other retailers which would make it a short run. Lots of speculation about this years winter set. We should be hearing soon what it might include. 

There's no discounts in the UK as yet.

[EctoG63AMG]

Lego Store employee (per corporate) told me this past July that both Slave One & GBHQ are retiring towards the end of this year. 

[roxio]

5 hours ago, CosmicSpeed said:

I bet both the winter train and station retire this season. The station is consistently seeing discounts at the Lego stores and other retailers which would make it a short run. Lots of speculation about this years winter set. We should be hearing soon what it might include. 

Winter sets have been on a regular cycle (in Europe) of 3 Xmas' availability. Most recent retiree was 10249 Toyshop which was first available Xmas'15. It came back before retiring in Nov'17. 

Based on that, train should be available for short time in Oct/Nov'18 before retiring. Station should be available right through Xmas'18 along with the new set.

[ravenb99]

round and round the train goes but where it'll stop no one knows...  My money is on station and I'm gonna take it to the bank, if not the jokes on me.

[BrickLegacy]

If the new Death Star retires I’ll eat my underwear.


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[Bold-Arrow]

1 minute ago, BrickLegacy said:

If the new Death Star retires I’ll eat my underwear.


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I still need to eat mine from last year 

[exracer327]

I'll pretty confident Slave 1 was extended because Assault on Our Intelligence, err, Hoth was retired after only 1 year.  The last time I spoke with a LEGO store mgr, he said he sells multiple Slave 1s every week.  It either is or close to the best selling UCS Star Wars set.  I don't know how to measure if that is true or not.

Another way to look at it is; Snowspeeder, MF, Y-Wing are all new.  Last DS ran for 8 years.  I'll bet 75159 will be no exception.  Slave 1 (2015) is the only one that doesn't fit.  And if they do come out with Cloud City, that would make six SW UCS sets running concurrently.  Has LEGO ever sold six UCS sets at the same time?

[cladner]

4 hours ago, ravenb99 said:

round and round the train goes but where it'll stop no one knows...  My money is on station and I'm gonna take it to the bank, if not the jokes on me.

ok - lets break this nugget down...

round and round:  ferris wheel

bank - brick bank?

jokes on me:  joker manor?

which exclusive  should i type up my capital in and lower my cagr for this year???

all of these large exclusives will be smoked investment performance wise by a $3.97 walmart dino poly (or say a box of 50) or the second chewie edition Millennium falcon microfighter bought at $7.

Edited August 16, 2018 by cladner

[ravenb99]

13 minutes ago, cladner said:

ok - lets break this nugget down...

round and round:  ferris wheel

bank - brick bank?

jokes on me:  joker manor?

which exclusive  should i type up my capital in and lower my cagr for this year???

all of these large exclusives will be smoked investment performance wise by a $3.97 walmart dino poly (or say a box of 50) or the second chewie edition Millennium falcon microfighter bought at $7.

C+/B- on deciphering.  Least you're not left out in the cold asking why you don't have some of the sets.  Don't go to big on Dino's or you'll be a prisoner to your own stash unless you think the bounty is worth it.   

Yeah big sets aren't worth the ups and downs of late.  

 

 

[cladner]

16 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

C+/B- on deciphering.  Least you're not left out in the cold asking why you don't have some of the sets.  Don't go to big on Dino's or you'll be a prisoner to your own stash unless you think the bounty is worth it.   

you gotta problem with $5?

more clues please. gives me a reason to get up in the morning.

bounty is worth it?  

as in bounty hunter - slave 1?

 

Edited August 16, 2018 by cladner

[ravenb99]

10 minutes ago, cladner said:

you gotta problem with $5?

more clues please. gives me a reason to get up in the morning.

bounty is worth it?  

as in bounty hunter - slave 1?

 

Can't I just have a casual conversation with a long time member about LEGO??   

[xeeeej]

5 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

Can't I just have a casual conversation with a long time member about LEGO??   

Casual conversation, like one might have in a restaurant in France?!

 

(Just messing with you!)

[ravenb99]

4 minutes ago, xeeeej said:

Casual conversation, like one might have in a restaurant in France?!

 

(Just messing with you!)

Lol that was good.  

[mtchrs]

Big W in Australia was selling the GBHQ for $200 (RRP $500) so that’s probably a sign it’s going.

[exciter1]

12 minutes ago, xeeeej said:

Casual conversation, like one might have in a restaurant in France?!

 

(Just messing with you!)

I guess you are waiting on Tabbyboy.

[Alucard1982]

Big W in Australia was selling the GBHQ for $200 (RRP $500) so that’s probably a sign it’s going.

Big W clear out a lot of their bigger sets on a yearly basis. I think it’ll go; however, I don’t think Big W is a definitive sign.

[whoisbiggles]

1 hour ago, Alucard1982 said:

 

 

Big W clear out a lot of their bigger sets on a yearly basis. I think it’ll go; however, I don’t think Big W is a definitive sign.
 

 

 

It is a sign that it wont be returning to Big W's shelves?

[Alucard1982]

It is a sign that it wont be returning to Big W's shelves?

Big W’s management and logistics are shot, nothing would surprise me, as far as I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t re-inject GBHQ @ RRP at Xmas.

Personal hunch is that they will go the way of **** Smith & TRU.