Retiring Soon - open speculation

[crayxlp]

1 minute ago, Dr Jedi said:

All things being equal, I would agree that the train is the one to go this year...but I don't know.  What's the stranger situation?  A train with no train station, or a train station with no train?  I  could see TLG retiring the station first, as it would seem a bit odd to have a train station available to purchase, but no train to put with it.  

And if this retires, look out.  Three years of train sales with 1 year of train station sales?  This set could challenge the post office and bakery rather quickly, I think.

I can easily imagine the same situation as they did with Ninjago Movie Mechs - they had an offering of their combo on SAH website for like 20 prct off (if Im not mistaken). THIS would make a real sense how to finish both of them at the same time.. before xmas

[LegoSteve]

I'd bet there's still Train Station inventory out there but it would be surprising if there was any available after Christmas. That's a set I'd never buy but to each their own.

I'm not sure what the thoughts are from others but I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a single architecture set retiring this year. I hope I'm wrong but SAH has always had around 15 sets available at all times & now there is only 11. Architecture has become my bread & butter over the last few years since the larger sets dont have as much ROI as they used to.

[eliminator]

3 hours ago, emazers said:

This is not going to retire til at least the end of the year., The 10254 Holiday Train is done at the end of 2018.

 

https://shop.lego.com/en-US/Winter-Village-Station-10259

Well, if there's no train then perhaps the station retiring makes sense....

[Loghamel]

On 7/25/2018 at 12:00 PM, TabbyBoy said:

It won't surprise me as it's an old theme and some fans now have new interests. Like Angry Birds, too little too late. I'll not be buying any HP sets.

How about a Resurrecting Soon thread? We already have the Taj Mahal and the Eiffel Tower then Cafe Corner could be next.

I hope your tongue is firmly planted in your cheek.  HP is going to be the largest winner for LEGO in a very, very long time.  I'm not claiming I'm predicting that because it's embarrassing to call that a 'prediction'.

[redcell]

1 hour ago, Loghamel said:

I hope your tongue is firmly planted in your cheek.  HP is going to be the largest winner for LEGO in a very, very long time.  I'm not claiming I'm predicting that because it's embarrassing to call that a 'prediction'.

Come on Loghamel...haven't you been paying attention?  According to Tabby, the Lego market has already gone down the toilet and no one is buying Lego anymore.  In his world, Lego will probably have to start paying people to take their products off their hands...or some crap like that.  Back in the real world, I agree with you, HP is going to be huge for Lego.  From a reselling perspective, it should be solid too, but I'm a bit wary on it since it is soooo obvious that there should be a ton of them put away for resale.

[Pebble&Park]

2 minutes ago, redcell said:

Come on Loghamel...haven't you been paying attention?  According to Tabby, the Lego market has already gone down the toilet and no one is buying Lego anymore.  In his world, Lego will probably have to start paying people to take their products off their hands...or some crap like that.  Back in the real world, I agree with you, HP is going to be huge for Lego.  From a reselling perspective, it should be solid too, but I'm a bit wary on it since it is soooo obvious that there should be a ton of them put away for resale.

I'm personally unlikely to touch the theme due to your last point. It's the same reason I have zero Saturn V. They're going to be winners eventually, but with finite capital I can get a much better return by not fighting 150 other sellers on a set.

[Pebble&Park]

4 hours ago, LegoSteve said:

I'd bet there's still Train Station inventory out there but it would be surprising if there was any available after Christmas. That's a set I'd never buy but to each their own.

I'm not sure what the thoughts are from others but I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a single architecture set retiring this year. I hope I'm wrong but SAH has always had around 15 sets available at all times & now there is only 11. Architecture has become my bread & butter over the last few years since the larger sets dont have as much ROI as they used to.

Great Wall and Vegas skyline will bring it up to 13. I'd bet that Eiffel goes this year, but it wouldn't shock me to see it go into a 6th year of production. 

[LegoSteve]

1 minute ago, Pebble&Park said:

...I can get a much better return by not fighting 150 other sellers on a set.

100% correct! I still own around 70 units of Saturn V I recieved before it's release date. If I had to do it all over again I would've added to my 300 Lourves, Burj Kalifas, or Architecture studios. 

[LegoSteve]

2 minutes ago, Pebble&Park said:

Great Wall and Vegas skyline will bring it up to 13. I'd bet that Eiffel goes this year, but it wouldn't shock me to see it go into a 6th year of production. 

Hope you're right about ET. That's the sets I have the most units of. If it doesn't retire this year I'll try to get 1000 units total.

[Pebble&Park]

I wonder if it's just "Sold Out" at this price for SAH and then will return later. 

Back to backordered at full price.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Brickpicker Forum mobile app

[cladner]

1 hour ago, Pebble&Park said:

Back to backordered at full price.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Brickpicker Forum mobile app
 

It became available yesterday while still on sale after emazer made the proclamation. Snagged a few nutcrackers worth.  Wah weh

 

[ravenb99]

On 7/29/2018 at 2:39 PM, emazers said:

 The 10254 Holiday Train is done at the end of 2018.

 

 

I feel like a wager is in order...

[Val-E]

 

[KingdomBrickSupply]

On 7/29/2018 at 5:48 PM, LegoSteve said:

Hope you're right about ET. That's the sets I have the most units of. If it doesn't retire this year I'll try to get 1000 units total.

How in the world did you manage to acquire that amount of inventory? Is there a method that I have been missing may whole life?

[LegoSteve]

I only have 350 units now but if it doesn't retire this year I'll put most of my Q4 profits into ET. No method really. You just need time & money. If I find a set that's a winner I try & buy as many as possible. I dont diversity & why should you if you put in the hours to determine a winner. When the Louvre came out I knew it was a winner.  I wanted 1000 units but only had the money for 300. I've never owned 1000 units of anything so that will be my next milestone. That's not something you should plan on accomplishing in a short time either. 18 to 24 months is a more realistic time frame.

[mudcatsfan]

1 minute ago, LegoSteve said:

I only have 350 units now but if it doesn't retire this year I'll put most of my Q4 profits into ET. No method really. You just need time & money. If I find a set that's a winner I try & buy as many as possible. I dont diversity & why should you if you put in the hours to determine a winner. When the Louvre came out I knew it was a winner.  I wanted 1000 units but only had the money for 300. I've never owned 1000 units of anything so that will be my next milestone. That's not something you should plan on accomplishing in a short time either. 18 to 24 months is a more realistic time frame.

sorry if this is a ridiculous question, but have you had much experience selling? 

some find the buying fun and the selling excruciating. 

selling 1000 units of lego sets could take quite a bit of work one set twosey. or do you plan to offload in bulk?

asking because I care, not to insult.

[iahawks550]

Actually, selling 1,000 units on EBAY would be very easy compared to 1,000 different sets. One listing, repeated. One style box for shipping, repeated. I think his theory makes sense, as long as you have 1,000 buyers for the set.

[KingdomBrickSupply]

34 minutes ago, LegoSteve said:

I only have 350 units now but if it doesn't retire this year I'll put most of my Q4 profits into ET. No method really. You just need time & money. If I find a set that's a winner I try & buy as many as possible. I dont diversity & why should you if you put in the hours to determine a winner. When the Louvre came out I knew it was a winner.  I wanted 1000 units but only had the money for 300. I've never owned 1000 units of anything so that will be my next milestone. That's not something you should plan on accomplishing in a short time either. 18 to 24 months is a more realistic time frame.

 

5 minutes ago, iahawks550 said:

Actually, selling 1,000 units on EBAY would be very easy compared to 1,000 different sets. One listing, repeated. One style box for shipping, repeated. I think his theory makes sense, as long as you have 1,000 buyers for the set.

It's definitely an interesting approach, but what I do not get is how you can accumulate that amount of a single set with discounts. I'd imagine you'd have to pay full price on that set you do end up choosing to invest in.

[landphieran]

Its always easier to only have one investment (Lego set, stock market,etc). Simplifies logistics and allows you to focus on maximizing profit of the single investment. Easier to know the market of that niche.

However there is a lot of inherent risk and downsides (as some have stated):
Getting them in bulk with discounts is difficult. Often requiring you to hold a lot of stock for a while as you mass purchase as they go on sale.
If the set ends up being a lemon. Your entire portfolio is lemon.
Pushing a lot of units to the market WILL cause the price to drop. It will take time to get max dollars. With the delay of your investment money coming back reduces your ability to reinvest.

[LegoSteve]

18 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

sorry if this is a ridiculous question, but have you had much experience selling? 

some find the buying fun and the selling excruciating. 

selling 1000 units of lego sets could take quite a bit of work one set twosey. or do you plan to offload in bulk?

asking because I care, not to insult.

I started selling Lego around 2013 I think but I do sales for a living.  I was really doing lego as a hobby till about 2-3 years ago. Instead of listening to what the masses post on here, no offense,  I've spend a good 25 hours breaking down historical data of sold lego sets & plugged that info into a bunch of excel spreadsheets. I dont necessarily look at what sets to buy I look at what themes to buy. If a theme has around a 75% ROI on it then I buy every set of that theme.  I dont second guess myself or get emotional about it. It just is what it is.  

Selling 1000 units of one set takes work but know as much as you think. I've streamlined everything and have everything on pallets. I dont do shelves anymore or worry about how pretty my set up looks. I have all the boxes I need and since each unit is the same size I dont have to worry about searching for the right box. Just stick the product in a box, tape it up, throw a label on it, & stick it on the front porch. Easy peasy!

In regards to bulk I've noticed a phenomenon where I've had people with Asian names purchase 5-10 units at a time & I'm more than happy to oblige them.

[mudcatsfan]

19 minutes ago, LegoSteve said:

I started selling Lego around 2013 I think but I do sales for a living.  I was really doing lego as a hobby till about 2-3 years ago. Instead of listening to what the masses post on here, no offense,  I've spend a good 25 hours breaking down historical data of sold lego sets & plugged that info into a bunch of excel spreadsheets. I dont necessarily look at what sets to buy I look at what themes to buy. If a theme has around a 75% ROI on it then I buy every set of that theme.  I dont second guess myself or get emotional about it. It just is what it is.  

Selling 1000 units of one set takes work but know as much as you think. I've streamlined everything and have everything on pallets. I dont do shelves anymore or worry about how pretty my set up looks. I have all the boxes I need and since each unit is the same size I dont have to worry about searching for the right box. Just stick the product in a box, tape it up, throw a label on it, & stick it on the front porch. Easy peasy!

In regards to bulk I've noticed a phenomenon where I've had people with Asian names purchase 5-10 units at a time & I'm more than happy to oblige them.

 Glad to hear you are a pro and have been through this rodeo before period I assume so but figured it was worth asking as we have seen some folks come to that realization painfully.

 The more I think about selling just a few sets the more I like the idea. You can really focus and streamline as you said buying the same packing materials the same boxes etc.

 If you know a particular set is going to be a winner why not go big? Make sense to me.

 

[TargetZero]

time pass so quick

[donbee]

Most of us don’t have a risk threshold high enough, or patience, to invest a year+ in to just a few sets.
Convenient, but risky.

Well, except for me. I pick winners.
But for the rest of the masses... a bit risqué.

[grabbitfast]

My experience of picking up 72 x 21117 Minecraft Dragons at approx £15 each in  Tesco 3 for 2 events left me a little concerned on how long it would take to unload them, but they were all gone bar 1 in 3 months at sell out of £59 approx .

Having a mass of the same set is handy as said for packaging posting listing, and not having to buy in boxes you may never use is of no concern.

[Villager Chris]

2 minutes ago, grabbitfast said:

My experience of picking up 72 x 21117 Minecraft Dragons at approx £15 each in  Tesco 3 for 2 events left me a little concerned on how long it would take to unload them, but they were all gone bar 1 in 3 months at sell out of £59 approx .

Having a mass of the same set is handy as said for packaging posting listing, and not having to buy in boxes you may never use is of no concern.

Very nice. Sadly 75% off any set is unlikely to be repeated in such quantities. Nearly every retailer has limits now.

Ah, the good old days....