Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Big set retirements aren't worth talking about any longer.

Unless they are the UCS Falcon....

[MrSam]

7 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Big set retirements aren't worth talking about any longer.

... Because they're all over-hoarded?
I'm sure there are still plenty of people pondering when they will go. 

In terms of smaller sets, I wonder if the current X-wing/A-wing and Y-wing are all set to go? They seem to be the most popular in terms of sales.

I'm also keeping a keen eye on Destiny's Bounty, personally

[Phil B]

Did anyone manage to find a way to look for retired sets at LEGO Shop at Home recently? They removed the dedicated page AFAIK

[Val-E]

12 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Did anyone manage to find a way to look for retired sets at LEGO Shop at Home recently? They removed the dedicated page AFAIK

search bar for "retired product" still works as does availability filter.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Val-E

[exciter1]

46 minutes ago, MrSam said:

... Because they're all over-hoarded?
I'm sure there are still plenty of people pondering when they will go. 

In terms of smaller sets, I wonder if the current X-wing/A-wing and Y-wing are all set to go? They seem to be the most popular in terms of sales.

I'm also keeping a keen eye on Destiny's Bounty, personally

Yes, nothing is doing that great besides the Shield Helicarrier.

[terrymc4677]

1 hour ago, MrSam said:

Feels like this thread has been pretty quiet recently.

I'm planning to grab a few Saturn V's too - not huge numbers but I feel like I'd be mad not to buy just few. Locally it still sells ~20% over RRP when stores run out of stock. Surely that's a good sign - it was with Wall-E!

In terms of upcoming retirements, surely the UCS Slave 1 must be due for retirement in the next few months? Along with GBHQ, Parisian Restaurant, Ferris Wheel, Mini Cooper. And who knows when the Tower Bridge and VW Camper might bite the dust.
I'm also curious how long the Disney Castle will last. That one seems to be sitting under the radar since it was released...

Maybe also the Capitol Building and SRG Museum from the Architecture line?

 

[oneknightr]

7 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Yes, nothing is doing that great besides the Shield Helicarrier.

Helicarrier is going for about $400 on evilBay. With a RRP of $350, not sure how that's great. 

[crayxlp]

1 hour ago, MrSam said:

Feels like this thread has been pretty quiet recently.

I'm planning to grab a few Saturn V's too - not huge numbers but I feel like I'd be mad not to buy just few. Locally it still sells ~20% over RRP when stores run out of stock. Surely that's a good sign - it was with Wall-E!

In terms of upcoming retirements, surely the UCS Slave 1 must be due for retirement in the next few months? Along with GBHQ, Parisian Restaurant, Ferris Wheel, Mini Cooper. And who knows when the Tower Bridge and VW Camper might bite the dust.
I'm also curious how long the Disney Castle will last. That one seems to be sitting under the radar since it was released...

Maybe also the Capitol Building and SRG Museum from the Architecture line?

Yes.. given the Disney Castle and Ghostbusters.. how many ppl you think would be so freaked out to happily purchase a 350-450 USD set?? Whoever wanted it - got it by now. Ghostbusters are kind of a sentiment piece for a generation that saw first two GB movies.. I doubt that nowadays teenagers give a damn about that movie in a sense that would truly like to have that. And what is your ideal scenario in a case that somebody truly would buy it? Would you get 20 % profit after fees? is that really worth that ?

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by crayxlp

[exciter1]

5 minutes ago, oneknightr said:

Helicarrier is going for about $400 on evilBay. With a RRP of $350, not sure how that's great. 

Check the Black Market.

[oneknightr]

12 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Check the Black Market.

The TRU parking lot? No longer viable as mine has been empty for over a month now. haha     I'm guessing you meant Amazon?

[Saruman]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

Silent Mary is more Piggy´s Pirate Ship than Queen Anne´s Revenge in terms of resale potential.

Why?

[Saruman]

Okay, I'll buy a Saturn V BUT ONLY because 

1. You guys have WAY more experience than me

2. I get the Creative Storybook which I can sell for a little something...... hehe 

3. It's selling over RRP

[cladner]

actual retiring speculation:

oos on june 1.

 

[crayxlp]

12 minutes ago, Saruman said:

Okay, I'll buy a Saturn V BUT ONLY because 

1. You guys have WAY more experience than me

2. I get the Creative Storybook which I can sell for a little something...... hehe 

3. It's selling over RRP

I think you take it wrong. You should always give just on your instincts and how you feel about the certain set. Each of us have different experiences and what you read (all) about here is just stories and experiences of other investors/resellers.. who previously got burned by a wrong pick or had a nesty conflict with some buyer / refund etc.. its just sharing a common experiences not stating "if you do not follow the main stream - you are a dead man"..  there are always some surprising sets, even though its much more often the overlooked, cheaper sets than your Ghostbusters.  

at the end, its your money and you put them into something. and if that doesnt pay off at the end, you could hardly put the blame on all of the BP comments just because "they told you so..". maybe you would feel better for a while but thats about it. Money would be still gone. its like you would be getting in a sports bidding  and asking seasoned ppl around "which team should I put my money on..?:" .. and expecting some sincere advice what pays off.. 

[Saruman]

Just now, crayxlp said:

I think you take it wrong. You should always give just on your instincts and how you feel about the certain set. Each of us have different experiences and what you read (all) about here is just stories and experiences of other investors/resellers.. who previously got burned by a wrong pick or had a nesty conflict with some buyer / refund etc.. its just sharing a common experiences not stating "if you do not follow the main stream - you are a dead man"..  there are always some surprising sets, even though its much more often the overlooked, cheaper sets than your Ghostbusters.  

at the end, its your money and you put them into something. and if that doesnt pay off at the end, you could hardly put the blame on all of the BP comments just because "they told you so..". maybe you would feel better for a while but thats about it. Money would be still gone. its like you would be getting in a sports bidding  and asking seasoned ppl around "which team should I put my money on..?:" .. and expecting some sincere advice what pays off.. 

Yes, I don't follow the crowd. But. I have been thinking about purchasing a Saturn V for a while. and yes I still will probably buy another Silent Mary  Because if everyone says it's bad, no on'e's buying it which means supply will be low and I can charge higher. As far as USPS problems go I have never had one so I am not worried about something bad happening. As far as instincts go I have been investing since August last year, so 11 months. And I have developed a sense of what I think will do well and what will do bad. I do realize it is my own money and I can't blame anyone if I lose it because I'm the one that spent it. I just don't understand though why everyone says the SM is terrible. Is there some deep dark secret I don't know about it?

[LegoBro]

Yes, I don't follow the crowd. But. I have been thinking about purchasing a Saturn V for a while. and yes I still will probably buy another Silent Mary  Because if everyone says it's bad, no on'e's buying it which means supply will be low and I can charge higher. As far as USPS problems go I have never had one so I am not worried about something bad happening. As far as instincts go I have been investing since August last year, so 11 months. And I have developed a sense of what I think will do well and what will do bad. I do realize it is my own money and I can't blame anyone if I lose it because I'm the one that spent it. I just don't understand though why everyone says the SM is terrible. Is there some deep dark secret I don't know about it?

My 2 cents which arent worth much - Silent Mary...well..it's selling below RRP on ebay. At least 25 to 50 bucks below. On Amazon..has a pretty high sales rank at the 199 price which means it's not flying off the shelves. If you can get at a real good discount may be worth getting some..if not, probably other sets worth looking into. Things become a lot clearer towards the end of the year as to what will retire as you probably know. Saturns..hoarded like crazy last year. Will be hoarded again this year as it retires. Will be a good seller after EOL...how fast the price will climb with so many sellers is another story.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Brickpicker Forum mobile app

[crayxlp]

28 minutes ago, Saruman said:

Yes, I don't follow the crowd. But. I have been thinking about purchasing a Saturn V for a while. and yes I still will probably buy another Silent Mary  Because if everyone says it's bad, no on'e's buying it which means supply will be low and I can charge higher. As far as USPS problems go I have never had one so I am not worried about something bad happening. As far as instincts go I have been investing since August last year, so 11 months. And I have developed a sense of what I think will do well and what will do bad. I do realize it is my own money and I can't blame anyone if I lose it because I'm the one that spent it. I just don't understand though why everyone says the SM is terrible. Is there some deep dark secret I don't know about it?

The issue is that you take into your calculations only "screams" around here. Im pretty sure there are some whales who can afford to spend hundreds of thousand into anything.. and they probably wouldnt look left or right or think twice if the Mary ship is a good prospect or not. With that kind of funds these ppl have, they probably get such a discount we can never dream of.

+ do not forget, that at the times of Amazon + ebay anybody in the world can be your competition. South Korean SAH shop still has Temple of Airjitzu, Palace Cinema and other sets already retired in EU and US.. and when South Koreans get their "sales" in a few months, they would be in a situation when these sets would be around a year or more already retired worldwide and they could choose whether to get them at ridiculous prices . or pass them given the overall performance after retirement..  there is always somebody smarter or with better chances than you (we) think..  no wonder there are so many Korean ebay sellers

Edited June 7, 2018 by crayxlp

[exciter1]

1 hour ago, oneknightr said:

The TRU parking lot? No longer viable as mine has been empty for over a month now. haha     I'm guessing you meant Amazon?

It was going for $525 on Amazon for a bit.

[Val-E]

7 hours ago, exciter1 said:

It was going for $525 on Amazon for a bit.

5 USD bills sell for 10 USD on Amazon FBA.  Just gotta factor in the comms and returns.

[Val-E]

8 hours ago, Saruman said:

Why?

If no one is buying it at normal price, who is going to flock to it on retirement and pay a premium? Pirates that have been offshore for the last 2 years?

[OrangeChiliPeP]

10 hours ago, Val-E said:

Silent Mary is more Piggy´s Pirate Ship than Queen Anne´s Revenge in terms of resale potential.

I have a lot of them & that ship has a great potential no later than in  September 2019 when the Angry Birds sequel will be released. 

With a buy in of hardly 18€ a piece and a part out value of more than 100$ already I see these ships sailing for a really big profit. 

 

 

[Vinetu]

If no one is buying it at normal price, who is going to flock to it on retirement and pay a premium? Pirates that have been offshore for the last 2 years?

10179 and the space pirates crew say hi

[Val-E]

31 minutes ago, Vinetu said:

 

10179 and the space pirates crew say hi

You know things are bad when people have to wheel out 10179 as an example of a  recent set with investment potential.

[Val-E]

49 minutes ago, OrangeChiliPeP said:

I have a lot of them & that ship has a great potential no later than in  September 2019 when the Angry Birds sequel will be released. 

With a buy in of hardly 18€ a piece and a part out value of more than 100$ already I see these ships sailing for a really big profit. 

 

 

Friends Adventure Camp Treehouse was also a great buy at 75% off but then it´s the discount and not the set that gives it potential.

 

[Legojona]

9 hours ago, crayxlp said:

The issue is that you take into your calculations only "screams" around here. Im pretty sure there are some whales who can afford to spend hundreds of thousand into anything.. and they probably wouldnt look left or right or think twice if the Mary ship is a good prospect or not. With that kind of funds these ppl have, they probably get such a discount we can never dream of.

+ do not forget, that at the times of Amazon + ebay anybody in the world can be your competition. South Korean SAH shop still has Temple of Airjitzu, Palace Cinema and other sets already retired in EU and US.. and when South Koreans get their "sales" in a few months, they would be in a situation when these sets would be around a year or more already retired worldwide and they could choose whether to get them at ridiculous prices . or pass them given the overall performance after retirement..  there is always somebody smarter or with better chances than you (we) think..  no wonder there are so many Korean ebay sellers

With the intensifying trade wars and import tax barriers, I only see the European Market as my competition. With Brexit coming up, I might even be protected from @TabbyBoy