Retiring Soon - open speculation

[CosmicSpeed]

3 minutes ago, Fabo24 said:

I know, but what do you think?

My opinion, the biggest chances at retirement from your list are probably the Porsche and 10243. 

[glucapg]

Hello guys,
I`m new here and my english isn`t the best because i`m from Germany.
I want to buy one of the following sets and I want to ask you which will be retiring first:
(maybe it was already mentioned here, but I don´t want to read 570 pages)
10214 Tower Bridge
42056 Porsche 911 GT3 RS
10243 Parisian Restaurant
10255 Assembly Square
Thank you for the answers in advance!
 

Buy two 42056 and five 10243 before the end of the year
Tower never retired.... Everlasting set
10255... Wait

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[Ed Mack]

My guess would bee the Parisian Restaurant or Porsche.

[Shewie]

2 hours ago, Fabo24 said:

I know, but what do you think?

There is a German guy here who might know something so maybe @Val-E will drop you the link (he is our "brickipedia" guy) or smth because this German boi was about 90% accurate last year with retirements. So maybe he will drop something this year again.

[Bricklyn1]

3 hours ago, Fabo24 said:

Hello guys,

I`m new here and my english isn`t the best because i`m from Germany.

I want to buy one of the following sets and I want to ask you which will be retiring first:

(maybe it was already mentioned here, but I don´t want to read 570 pages)

10214 Tower Bridge

42056 Porsche 911 GT3 RS

10243 Parisian Restaurant

10255 Assembly Square

Thank you for the answers in advance!

 

This is just my opinion. Open for criticism.

 

First off. I personally don't like any for investment at this point. I like all of them for my personal collection but will probable say away from the Porsche  I don't have the space needed to display it. Bridge will display well on a shelf. Modular go with what I already have.

If you are going to get all of them I would get the Porsche first.  I don't know a lot about Lego licensing but I assume they have to pay Porsche something. Also, once it is "sold out" then you will have to get it from the secondary market. This set is over 5 kg with out packaging. So shipping could get pricey. Just make sure you know where you are going to put it before you build it.

Second, I would look at the Tower Bridge. It been out awhile, and has to retire at some point. And again shipping could get expensive. But I wouldn't be that worried if it retired. It is saturated  on the secondary market and you could likely find it at MSRP for about a 1-2 months after retirement.

Third I would get Parisian. You should have time before it retires. The modular likely to go in order of release (not always). So Detectives office will like go before Parisian. It also saturated on the secondary Market,  So again you would have time after retirement.

Assembly Square has only been out one year. I would expect it to be out for 2 more years if not more. And it goes in order with modular set then the Office, Parisian, and Bank would retire first. 

 

[cladner]

38 minutes ago, Bricklyn1 said:

 

Third I would get Parisian. You should have time before it retires. The modular likely to go in order of release (not always). So Detectives office will like go before Parisian. It also saturated on the secondary Market,  So again you would have time after retirement.

Assembly Square has only been out one year. I would expect it to be out for 2 more years if not more. And it goes in order with modular set then the Office, Parisian, and Bank would retire first. 

 

10243 Parisian Restaurant came out in 2014.

10246 Detective Office was 2015 modular.

Parisian should go before DO, if you buy into that logic but other factors could be at play .

PR has lower sales rank on amazon than DO, or BB so that would favor retirement possibly.  but....

Assembly Square has lowest sales rank of all currently available modulars sold by amazon.com - that big price tag automatically reduces the market demand. 

For the BTP with access to wholesale catalogs and other private knowledge, life is but a dream.

For the rest of us peons, its all a guess and paying attention to retailer stock outages and different countries LEGO Shop at Home websites.  buy correctly move inventory and watch your cagr grow.  choose poorly, you bought deep into iron golem head fake and you got a nice dust collection going.

when the time is right, the big time people will pass the word on down from up yonder high so us mere mortals can scrounge the remaining morsels and seed shells to wring out the retail supply and provide a nice post EOL bump.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by cladner

[LegoBro]

141 amazon sellers on iron golem would agree with ya. Looks to have a similar end as the cave...should have disappeared at the end of 2016...but remained throughout 2017. Only silver lining I see for golem is it seems to only be available online and not at any physical stores shelf....at least in my neck of the woods.....for now

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Brickpicker Forum mobile app

[Val-E]

Logic says that the Porsche will go first as big Technic sets only last 2.5 years and the Chiron will be out in the summer.

Ass Square should be the last, but you never know if Lego will spring another Town Hall on us due to poor sales.

There is still time to get all of these sets but if you see one at a good discount (e.g. Target Ass Square mistake) then don´t procrastinate.

 

[Fabo24]

Thanks for the help all of you!

I think I will get the Porsche first because probably when the Chiron is out in summer, it will get retired.

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, Fabo24 said:

Thanks for the help all of you!

I think I will get the Porsche first because probably when the Chiron is out in summer, it will get retired.

You have 7 months to get the Porsche so just wait till it comes in at a good price eg sub 200 euros.

[Fabo24]

42 minutes ago, Val-E said:

You have 7 months to get the Porsche so just wait till it comes in at a good price eg sub 200 euros.

Do you think it will drop to 180-190€ here in Germany?

Edited April 4, 2018 by Fabo24

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, Fabo24 said:

Do you think it will drop to 180-190€ here in Germany?

You might even get it for less if it comes into the SAH 50% sale, but that´s by no means guaranteed. 190-200 is doable.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

You might even get it for less if it comes into the SAH 50% sale, but that´s by no means guaranteed. 190-200 is doable.

It'll need to be as it won't reach RRP once the horde start offloading.

[Val-E]

I reckon it will get to RRP without too much difficulty. This is a set people will want down the line.

[lobo1969]

10247 Ferris wheel is coming up to 3 years since release. Everyone has been quiet about this one but with the roller-coaster being released soon you have to wonder how much longer it will last.

I'm also eyeing up 2.5 years of GB Firehall. Licensed set must be on the verge as well.

[Val-E]

I´d say there is a very  very high probability both are done this year.

[dragonmist64]

Thoughts on 42063 BMW R 1200 GS Adventure?  Can I expect a 2 year life span?  Also has anyone seen it go on sale in the US?

[HandyHand]

14 hours ago, lobo1969 said:

10247 Ferris wheel is coming up to 3 years since release. Everyone has been quiet about this one but with the roller-coaster being released soon you have to wonder how much longer it will last.

I'm also eyeing up 2.5 years of GB Firehall. Licensed set must be on the verge as well.

Yup, I agree with you and @Val-E that both 10247 (FW) and 75827 (GBHQ) are high likely to retire by end of this year.

So ... a list of the "Hard to Find Items" on LEGO Shop at Home that have a high chance to retire would be:

75827 GBHQ

75060 Slave-1

10247 FW

10243 PR

10242 Mini Cooper

And ... if 21137 (Minecraft Mountain Cave) follows the same pattern of 21128 The Village, then 21137 will retire by end of 2018 like 21128 retired by end of 2017.

[HollyS]

Anyone think 75175 A-Wing Starfighter is done?

[exciter1]

4 minutes ago, HollyS said:

 

Anyone think 75175 A-Wing Starfighter is done?

It's been mentioned that it might move to Amazon as an exclusive.

[HollyS]

8 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

It's been mentioned that it might move to Amazon as an exclusive.

Does that mean Lego is making more or just remaining stock?

[exciter1]

Just now, HollyS said:

Does that mean Lego is making more or just remaining stock?

I would only assume they'll offload the remaining, but not 100% on that.

[Kands75]

48 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

It's been mentioned that it might move to Amazon as an exclusive.

Amazon has already taken presales for a June 1st release.  Also includes the other SW sets that were TRU exclusives, Friends TRU Exclusive and Speed Champions.  Some are at least temporarily sold out while others are still available.

[Yellow Castle]

We usually see a handful of summer retirements, I remember 75114 (Buildable First Order Stormtrooper) and Darth Vader 75111 last summer so does anyone think some of the Rogue One sets might not make October/November retirement season and go sooner?

Could FW also go sooner than end of year with 10261 out on 1st June?

There seems to be more "likely sets" bouncing in and out of stock quickly (42056, 60052).

[Guest TabbyBoy]

It'll be interesting to see what would happen if the Tower Bridge and/or VW Camper retired. There'll either be instant panic and growth or reaching RRP will take years due to massive over-hoarding. I got fed up of the space that mine took up so I got rid the lot at a 10% loss.