Retiring Soon - open speculation

[HandyHand]

3 hours ago, mauro23 said:

They have cancelled all my Nutcracker beside one... Should I now cancel some of my 5 orders as revenge...?

Depends what you ordered and whether the nutcracker was a major reason to order those sets or just an inconsequential side promo.

[mauro23]

10 minutes ago, Haay said:

Depends what you ordered and whether the nutcracker was a major reason to order those sets or just an inconsequential side promo.

Alwyas in a separate order:

VV - 70 Euro

Silent Mary - 160 Euro

Brick Bank - 120 Euro

Big Ben - 176 Euro

GHQ - 270 Euro

As you can see, the nutcracker was NOT the major reason... I think I will give them a call and ask either for giving me the nutcrackers or I will cancel the orders...

(I wanted them for personal building...)

 

[roxio]

12 hours ago, Val-E said:

76039 and 40?

Most on around 50% buy in, Hulkbuster, Riddler Chase, Antman, Brainiac, even the Batboat getting £39 on a £15 buy.  Rinse and repeat

[Shewie]

19 hours ago, mauro23 said:

Alwyas in a separate order:

VV - 70 Euro

Silent Mary - 160 Euro

Brick Bank - 120 Euro

Big Ben - 176 Euro

GHQ - 270 Euro

As you can see, the nutcracker was NOT the major reason... I think I will give them a call and ask either for giving me the nutcrackers or I will cancel the orders...

(I wanted them for personal building...)

 

Give us a note how it went, I'm curious.
If you are making too many separated orders it's rather obvious it raised the alarm in the system.
Friend of mine ordered 2 from web, got 2 nutcrackers no problem.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Shewie

[legobuddies]

On 9/30/2017 at 7:09 PM, legobuddies said:

Just patience wait what is 10256 ? 

Next year I bet cafe corner and green grocer remake. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

2 hours ago, legobuddies said:

Next year I bet cafe corner and green grocer remake. 

I won't bet against you.

[Yellow Castle]

Apparently Batcave being re-released in 2018?.

Does anyone have any updates on further retirements in addition to retirement list as it has been very smoke and mirrors this year from TLG with sets slipping into retirement quietly plus Black Friday deals at SAH very disappointing☹️.

 

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, Castle375 said:

Apparently Batcave being re-released in 2018.

Does anyone have any updates on further retirements in addition to retirement list as it has been very smoke and mirrors this year from TLG with sets slipping into retirement quietly plus Black Friday deals at SAH very disappointing.

 

We´re done pending the clarification of whether R1 sets are going or not. USA say no, Europe says yes.

I stil think Adventure Time won´t make another year but I seem to be in the minority.

[crayxlp]

How much likely do you see retirement of Assembly Square modular at the end of this year? I mean (my view).. its a special set for 10th anniversary (meaning 10th year) also kind of large ane expensive as a toy for regular building by children.. and you all are rumouring that there might be even two modulars that would retire. And this has been on for a full year so not exactly a supershort existence.

[ED-209]

3 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

How much likely do you see retirement of Assembly Square modular at the end of this year? I mean (my view).. its a special set for 10th anniversary (meaning 10th year) also kind of large ane expensive as a toy for regular building by children.. and you all are rumouring that there might be even two modulars that would retire. And this has been on for a full year so not exactly a supershort existence.

I wouldn't bet on it

[Fenix_2k1]

7 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

How much likely do you see retirement of Assembly Square modular at the end of this year? I mean (my view).. its a special set for 10th anniversary (meaning 10th year) also kind of large ane expensive as a toy for regular building by children.. and you all are rumouring that there might be even two modulars that would retire. And this has been on for a full year so not exactly a supershort existence.

If that logic about anniversary sets held any water those waiting for 75192 should be panicking right now ?

[crayxlp]

yeah.. but this cant be compared .. Assembly Square has been hugely available and whoever wanted one - got three already

 

[Fenix_2k1]

19 hours ago, legobuddies said:

Next year I bet cafe corner and green grocer remake. 

Given that they've already announced 1 modular release for 2018 and you specify both would come out next year I'd take that bet.

[fantomas007]

2 hours ago, crayxlp said:

How much likely do you see retirement of Assembly Square modular at the end of this year? I mean (my view).. its a special set for 10th anniversary (meaning 10th year) also kind of large ane expensive as a toy for regular building by children.. and you all are rumouring that there might be even two modulars that would retire. And this has been on for a full year so not exactly a supershort existence.

It would be a bad joke to keep this set just for 1 year. Even it is an anniversary set, 1 year is extreme and it doesnt make a sense to design and produce such big set for such short period of time. And there aro no signals about EOL (no sold out, retiring soon or last chance status). EOL would be really shocking :-)

The bigger risk is that we cannot predict, whether this set will live as long as other modulars (5 years), since it is the most expensive modular and we remember what happen with Town Hall. So it can finish in 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021, everything is possible. So nobody knows when to hoard. If i buy it in next year, i can be sitting on it many years. Its too risky.

 

[crayxlp]

4 minutes ago, fantomas007 said:

It would be a bad joke to keep this set just for 1 year. Even it is an anniversary set, 1 year is extreme and it doesnt make a sense to design and produce such big set for such short period of time. And there aro no signals about EOL (no sold out, retiring soon or last chance status). EOL would be really shocking :-)

The bigger risk is that we cannot predict, whether this set will live as long as other modulars (5 years), since it is the most expensive modular and we remember what happen with Town Hall. So it can finish in 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021, everything is possible. So nobody knows when to hoard. If i buy it in next year, i can be sitting on it many years. Its too risky.

 

I got mine own share so I vote for early, unexpected retirement ..  

[legobuddies]

3 hours ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

Given that they've already announced 1 modular release for 2018 and you specify both would come out next year I'd take that bet.

Haha..let's wait..once TLG announced either Cafe Corner or Green Grocer re-make..the other set sure on the card. Reseller market is going collapsing for both sets. Time will tell...next one will be Starwars UCS remake..will update once have more info. 

[Val-E]

50 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

I got mine own share so I vote for early, unexpected retirement ..  

It´s more likely that Angry Birds will be remade.

[crayxlp]

I politely disagree. Ive read the comments presented here regarding why its unthinkable that Assembly Square should retire, just to name a few: it would be shocking, its too soon.. the development was so expensive it wouldnt make any sense (not exactly worded like this but I perceived it this way).. lets take a closer look on these arguments:

a) expensive development - lets consider 2 designers working full time for 3 months on AS. I dont know the precise salaries for LEGO designers, but just for the sake of the argument, its 6 months salaries . if each receives 6000 USD per month (plus like 50 % company has to pay on various taxes, insurance etc), it comes to a total of 54.000 USD for a payroll expenses on a development. .. if you make 50.000 sets, its just a single USD per set.. laughing stock.

marketing expenses bringing a product to a market. Maybe in Denmark they had some serious marketing campaigns envolving advertisement in media, but overall I believe they just used internet and in-store incentives and stuff. wouldnt account for much in a total

c) one of the most cited early-retired modulars The Town Hall lasted also very short. Reasons could be any, but the fact is its development also cost something and marketing around also something. Still LEGO considered it fruithful to retire.

d) based on the latest developments and massive scale sets such as a new UCS Falcon, UCS Death Star, Joker Manor .. I dont think these are the sets preliminary targeted for parents to buy for their kids as a toy. Its quite obvious who is the target market group (exclusions apply). 

e) Look at the EU SAH development in the past cca 6-7 weeks. Last year it was unheard off that LEGO would retire a set not tagged in advance as "retiring soon".. nowadays Id say that for every two "regularly" tagged retiring soon you get one that you had no idea it would retire (okay, some of you guys know and can predict anything). Also none of the retiring soon sets in the past few weeks has got any discount (at least in EU). Also something totally new compared not just to a previous year, but also to the 1H of 2017.

so what if this is all a part of a new marketing approach? LEGO suffered some financial loss, felt a need to lay off almost 10 % of their loyal stuff (so why to offer any discounts, right?) .. plus knows and got way over too firmly convinced that AFOLs would buy ANYTHING - given the UCS Falcon - even if the market price is almost unacceptable... in conjuction with some sets tagged as retiring, others not..  you guys perfectly predicting which set will retire when.. why shouldnt they aim for establishing an "unpredictable environment" when you dont know an hour or day any particular set would retire? Wouldnt that increase sales? The uncertainty that you just dont know.. 

this is my view and being in charge of marketing, I would deploy many of that into reality. Its not a problem to decide upfront that you product only 50.000 pcs of Assembly Square, order the adequate number of packaging boxes and then you are done with that. Another Town Hall.

Edited November 29, 2017 by crayxlp
typos

[Phil B]

TL;DR but did see your point e) which is incorrect, actually, the whole "retiring soon" gimmick is something that only started in the last few years and has never been applied to all sets that retire.

[Val-E]

Those are reasonable arguments but there is one factor that will decide retirement that you didn´t mention - sales.

There are still enough people buying modulars (you yourself said you have made your number) that a repeat of TH is now unlikely. 

If it were a poor seller, they´d try other strategies like discounts or 3x VIP promos before killing it off. 

[fantomas007]

30 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

I politely disagree. Ive read the comments presented here regarding why its unthinkable that Assembly Square should retire, just to name a few: it would be shocking, its too soon.. the development was so expensive it wouldnt make any sense (not exactly worded like this but I perceived it this way).. lets take a closer look on these arguments:

a) expensive development - lets consider 2 designers working full time for 3 months on AS. I dont know the precise salaries for LEGO designers, but just for the sake of the argument, its 6 months salaries . if each receives 6000 USD per month (plus like 50 % company has to pay on various taxes, insurance etc), it comes to a total of 54.000 USD for a payroll expenses on a development. .. if you make 50.000 sets, its just a single USD per set.. laughing stock.

..........

c) one of the most cited early-retired modulars The Town Hall lasted also very short. Reasons could be any, but the fact is its development also cost something and marketing around also something. Still LEGO considered it fruithful to retire.

.......

......

......

a) you are right, design costs can be spread within large amount of sets. But there is something more behind each set - otherwise they wouldnt have been produced a remake of Winter Toy shop because of lack of time, although the designer said that he had ready a new winter model.

c) town hall had 2.5 years life, its much more than just 1 year. In normal world (i.e. technic, city) 2.5 year would be normal production time of the set. We are just accustomed, that normal period for a modular set is 5 years, so Town hall seemed to be alive too short.

I know we live in chaotic lego world with unexpected EOLs, remakes, etc. But at least something should signalize the retirement - out of stock warning throughout the biggest chains, SAH, etc, secret lists of retiring sets, etc. We see nothing about Assembly Square EOL.

What is more probable is:

1) changing the chain of retirement of modulars, i.e. finish Brick Bank instead of Cinema, because of bad selling numbers; or

2) killing 2 or 3 modulars in 1 year (i have been expecting this several years, since it is too much to have 5 modulars together on the shelves).

 

[Val-E]

One thing to also take into account. We have 11 confirmed exclusives retiring this year (if sales are good), which equals the record of 2014. Maybe next year we won´t get quite so many or maybe they will continue the trend as this year has also seen a record number of new exclusives.

In 2018, if we want to start speculation, we can include:

Winter Train, Parisian Restaurant, Slave1, GBHQ, Ferris Wheel and Silent Mary (6).

Minecraft Mountain and Ninjago City are also possibles and Mini could too. (3)

I think the real number will be lower and probably 6 or 7.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Val-E

[Yellow Castle]

Just did the search on SAH uk and now 206 coming up as retiring soon, weirdly few new releases in that which must be an error (Brickheadz Captain Phazma).

It doesn’t appear to be all sets on list but could be first wave of updated to their system?

 

[Val-E]

10 minutes ago, Castle375 said:

Just did the search on SAH uk and now 206 coming up as retiring soon, weirdly few new releases in that which must be an error (Brickheadz Captain Phazma).

It doesn’t appear to be all sets on list but could be first wave of updated to their system?

 

Seems legit as per Raven´s list but there are some false positives/prematures and some sets like The Village are not yet tagged.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Val-E

[glucapg]

One thing to also take into account. We have 11 confirmed exclusives retiring this year (if sales are good), which equals the record of 2014. Maybe next year we won´t get quite so many or maybe they will continue the trend as this year has also seen a record number of new exclusives.
In 2018, if we want to start speculation, we can include:
Winter Train, Parisian Restaurant, Slave1, GBHQ, Ferris Wheel and Silent Mary (6).
Minecraft Mountain and Ninjago City are also possibles and Mini could too. (3)
I think the real number will be lower and probably 6 or 7.

Which are the 11 of 2017?
Thanks