Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Guest TabbyBoy]

It'll be good to look back at these pages a year from now.

BTW... I sold my last Trevi Fountain this morning. £70 from a £25 buy-in only a year ago. That may be the last well performing Archtecture set. I think the detail-lacking skylines will be the worst. They're an executive souvenir, nothing more.

[feed]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I was thinking of pulling up a list of the best performing 2016 retirements at the end of this year. Are they any others I should add to the below  list?

 

75902

 

 

Think the other Scoob sets have done better.  JW retired 2016 for the most part. 
But you have the same problem as always, measuring off retail. I've made more profit on spaceports and Deep Sea Exploration than anything else, the stupid low buyins on those have suppressed aftermarket prices.   

[Val-E]

6 minutes ago, feed said:

Think the other Scoob sets have done better.  JW retired 2016 for the most part. 
But you have the same problem as always, measuring off retail. I've made more profit on spaceports and Deep Sea Exploration than anything else, the stupid low buyins on those have suppressed aftermarket prices.   

Yes, it has to be versus RRP or @exciter1 and others´ 3  cents Walmart deals will obliterate all other performances.

JW sets are not doing as many times RRP as the sets I listed above. Pound per pound it is always going to be sub 50 whatsit sets that perform the best.

[LegoSteve]

The Lourve is now sold out on SAH US.

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, LegoSteve said:

The Lourve is now sold out on SAH US.

 

 

[LegoSteve]

I had another block of 115 ordered 2 days ago.  Hope there wont be any issues.

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12 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Yes, it has to be versus RRP or @exciter1 and others´ 3  cents Walmart deals will obliterate all other performances.

JW sets are not doing as many times RRP as the sets I listed above. Pound per pound it is always going to be sub 50 whatsit sets that perform the best.

Then all you are doing is creating a list of the outliers, it doesn’t really show anything other than there are Lego set unicorns. If it's just out of interest/curiosity fair enough, but it’s no easier picking sets for the future looking at that list, most were unpredictable apart from MM which everyone has dozens of.   

And you are being disingenuous when you say 3c sets, I’m not talking about the 90% discounts people find in small volumes.  It’s nice but not representative.  If someone claimed to have found 100 41171s at 10p each, would you discount it from the list.  Sets that were consistently available with solid 40-50% discounts, that trade above RRP in volume within 12 months of retirement, it’s those sets are that are the real winners.  
 

[crayxlp]

If I may..  working on those lists is surely great thing to do that also must consume a lots of time.. however (as pointed out above) regarding "all those other sets - smaller, larger, heavily discounted..". whatever was, is or may be their performance in the future - we will NEVER SEE until the BP database gets a NEW PRICE UPDATE...

[Val-E]

5 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

If I may..  working on those lists is surely great thing to do that also must consume a lots of time.. however (as pointed out above) regarding "all those other sets - smaller, larger, heavily discounted..". whatever was, is or may be their performance in the future - we will NEVER SEE until the BP database gets a NEW PRICE UPDATE...

Might I suggest you check out this thread, in the meantime. I´ll be updating it next week with November data.

 

[Val-E]

22 minutes ago, feed said:

Then all you are doing is creating a list of the outliers, it doesn’t really show anything other than there are Lego set unicorns. If it's just out of interest/curiosity fair enough, but it’s no easier picking sets for the future looking at that list, most were unpredictable apart from MM which everyone has dozens of.   

And you are being disingenuous when you say 3c sets, I’m not talking about the 90% discounts people find in small volumes.  It’s nice but not representative.  If someone claimed to have found 100 41171s at 10p each, would you discount it from the list.  Sets that were consistently available with solid 40-50% discounts, that trade above RRP in volume within 12 months of retirement, it’s those sets are that are the real winners.  
 

RRP has to be the starting point - it´s what has always been used to calculate Brickpicker CAGR and is what is used by any used car guide to show depreciation. Of course, hardly anyone pays sticker price for a car and some people get them at cost so YMMV.

The sales platform used is the other thorny issue - to use the car analogy, craigslist etc are equivalent to seized property auctions and Amazon is like an official franchised dealer and the prices on each can be vastly different.

When we compare stats with RRP, D2C exclusives look to be safe bets, but we all know that our own special bargains do way better and we can often get 6 times buy-in or better if we have been skilled or lucky purchasers.

[crayxlp]

12 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Might I suggest you check out this thread, in the meantime. I´ll be updating it next week with November data.

 

Well, I asked about the price update at several different threads since October - no reply in any of them:
 

 

[feed]

13 minutes ago, Val-E said:

RRP has to be the starting point - it´s what has always been used to calculate Brickpicker CAGR and is what is used by any used car guide to show depreciation. Of course, hardly anyone pays sticker price for a car and some people get them at cost so YMMV.

The sales platform used is the other thorny issue - to use the car analogy, craigslist etc are equivalent to seized property auctions and Amazon is like an official franchised dealer and the prices on each can be vastly different.

When we compare stats with RRP, D2C exclusives look to be safe bets, but we all know that our own special bargains do way better and we can often get 6 times buy-in or better if we have been skilled or lucky purchasers.

I don’t disagree with anything you said, I just don’t understand your intent with the lists.  If it’s a look there are still sets that go for high RRP multiples in the aftermarket, I get it.
Using it as a measuring stick for value, insight into the market or even investment acumen, not so much.  
 

[cladner]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

I was thinking of pulling up a list of the best performing 2016 retirements at the end of this year. Are they any others I should add to the below  list?

41171, 74, 78

71312, 71315, 71316

10697

75902

31032

 

 

lego 10667 Juniors construction red bucket - msrp $14.99 - current FBA - $94.90.  6.33x MSRP.  on permasale throughout its long life at target and walmart for 11.99.  i unloaded in the 60s.

drop the mic.

 

Edited November 24, 2017 by cladner

[Val-E]

6 minutes ago, feed said:

I don’t disagree with anything you said, I just don’t understand your intent with the lists.  If it’s a look there are still sets that go for high RRP multiples in the aftermarket, I get it.
Using it as a measuring stick for value, insight into the market or even investment acumen, not so much.  
 

The original intent was to explore if there was a trend in the theme or style of sets that could be bought for RRP and make multiple times that profit. What has been shown is that the sets or themes don´t really matter and what mainly count are three general factors.  Short shelf life,  scarce availability and that the sets were not discussed at length here or on other fan sites.

That´s why I made the comment about lightning not striking twice with Elves dragons because the horde, by nature, will ensure that similar sets won´t do as well as the originals.

[Achilles]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

To be fair, anyone that would have suggested Elves and Bionicles as the most profitable themes at the beginning of 2016 would have been roundly mocked. I was convinced that 41109 Friends Plane and 60112 Fire Engine were hidden gems and look at what happened to them.

I think that Plane is going to do just fine. Going to take another year or two. It was avail at TRU long after "retirement".

 

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, Achilles said:

I think that Plane is going to do just fine. Going to take another year or two. It was avail at TRU long after "retirement".

 

I reckon it will be caught and passed by 60104.....

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 minute ago, Val-E said:

I reckon it will be caught and passed by 60104.....

60104 will shoot it down right after takeoff. 60104 was also a lower buy-in for most.

[Val-E]

9 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

60104 will shoot it down right after takeoff. 60104 was also a lower buy-in for most.

The gap is 20 euros at the moment on Amazon - it should be on a par by February. I guess 41109 was just too exclusive for little girls to know about it and too girly for collectors to want it.

[feed]

15 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I guess 41109 was just too exclusive for little girls to know about it and too girly for collectors to want it.

And had too many male pilots.  

[crayxlp]

2 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

It'll be good to look back at these pages a year from now.

BTW... I sold my last Trevi Fountain this morning. £70 from a £25 buy-in only a year ago. That may be the last well performing Archtecture set. I think the detail-lacking skylines will be the worst. They're an executive souvenir, nothing more.

Im curious.. when you sold the Trevi for that price - what was the shipping costs that buyer paid? Or was that a local collection?

[dmind]

Not sure if anybody noticed, but on LEGO Shop at Home EU, it looks like the sets with 20% off are "just discounted", and the sets with 30% off are going to retire (without retiring soon tag). That logic also matches with the "retire soon list" as shared here on the forum, and matches with e.g. 76057 Battle Bridge.

[crayxlp]

4 minutes ago, dmind said:

Not sure if anybody noticed, but on LEGO Shop at Home EU, it looks like the sets with 20% off are "just discounted", and the sets with 30% off are going to retire (without retiring soon tag). That logic also matches with the "retire soon list" as shared here on the forum, and matches with e.g. 76057 Battle Bridge.

Can you give an example? because on Czech e-shop I see currently 47 items tagged as retiring soon and only some stupid items such as keychains or plastic bottles are discounted. The rest is either discounted for Black Friday - or not at all.

[exciter1]

3 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

Can you give an example? because on Czech e-shop I see currently 47 items tagged as retiring soon and only some stupid items such as keychains or plastic bottles are discounted. The rest is either discounted for Black Friday - or not at all.

Just all the stuff you've been reporting.

[dmind]

1 minute ago, crayxlp said:

Can you give an example? because on Czech e-shop I see currently 47 items tagged as retiring soon and only some stupid items such as keychains or plastic bottles are discounted. The rest is either discounted for Black Friday - or not at all.

Czech Republic shows same logic:

Will retire, 30% off: 70907, 70908, 41232, 75139, 76052, et cetera

Are just discounted, 20% off: 42069, 10252, 75189, 10251, et cetera

 

[crayxlp]

1 minute ago, exciter1 said:

Just all the stuff you've been reporting.

I really dont get your point.. what are you trying to prove here? that we - in Europe (not just CZE, but also German, France, Italian, Spanish etc) market SUCK? And you in North America are The Kings or what?

I would expect this attitude from someone else than MOST RESPECTED MODERATOR .. 

or are you suggesting that we should - somehow, given these circumstances, revolt against TLG presence here or something?. Its their decision why they cease production in different world areas at different moments. The same as why it is still financially efficient for them to have everything loaded off in Munich and whenever I order something from the local website I get it from German warehouse. The same applies for the rest of the continental Europe, not sure if UK doesnt have a dedicated warehouse.