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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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15 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

I might be able to arrange it.  Not as fun that way really though.  I like to keep cladner in suspense

i agree.  ravenb99's random oblique references and clues turn what should be a simple financial decision into a sleuthing puzzling exercise  worthy of hours of contemplation and ponderment.  guess right - untold fortunes.  guess wrong - you're waiting in walmart return line for eternity behind some joker with a semitruck full of L.O.L. Big surprise balls and snow glow elsas.

i've been banking on walmart's clearance to light the way to EOL enlightenment so that has been helpful.

 

one question for those in the know:

was there an instance last year of a set that was supposedly not going to retire but then DID end up retiring or is this list IT - nothing else is going.  like last year you guys knew dragon sanctuary was going.  (like you guys know what this year's dragon sanctuary or town hall is going to be 8) 

Edited by cladner
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3 minutes ago, cladner said:

i agree.  ravenb99's random oblique references and clues turn what should be a simple financial decision into a sleuthing puzzling exercise  worthy of hours of contemplation and ponderment.  guess right - untold fortunes.  guess wrong - you're waiting in walmart return line for eternity behind some joker with a semitruck full of L.O.L. Big surprise balls and snow glow elsas.

i've been banking on walmart's clearance to light the way to EOL enlightenment so that has been helpful.

 

one question for those in the know:

was there an instance last year of a set that was supposedly not going to retire but then DID end up retiring or is this list IT - nothing else is going.  like last year you guys knew dragon sanctuary was going.

Ha so many good words in there, like pondering and surprise balls...

I didn't have full information on last year to know but seeing this years which LEGO has even posted one in the catalog the short runs are a known factor and I presume others have this info as well that have hit large quantities of the random short sets in the past (not just the ones that reacted and grabbed up what they could).  It does not have anything to do with slow sales of that set.

Sure things can still change and that would relate to slow sales or spikes in sales but I do not foresee any extensions like in the past due to the time we are in now.  It's not like it was the past 3-4 years and the last thing they need to do is extend sets when they have just under 600 active sets not counting hardline sets like holidays and special stuff like chess.

I am interested to see what happens with the 5 sets that didn't match up.   I show some of them summer 2018 and a few end of 18.   His list I believe he said was what was not orderable anymore which usually does correlate but could also be the reason why.   Over here we usually have a set or 2 carry over from the previous wave into the next and seeing all the others were going they just might not carry any from that wave at that retailer.  

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Yeah, the list is to help smaller shops make their pre Xmas orders and if they want to send back returns before the deadline. In addition, Lego will offer bigger discounts on the sets they want to see in shops and seasonal supermarket lines over this period, which is why you end up seeing the same stuff from shop to shop and they all start price matching each other. At least that´s how it works in Europe and why last year we got such good deals as everyone bought based on previous years´ demand.

There will be sets that retire which are not on the list a) because they are not sold to this type of store (D2C exclusives, IDEAS, shop exclusives b: because they  were last minute cancellations and xmas orders have been fulfilled.

Most sets on the list will have now had their last production runs (weeks 40-47) as Lego switch to 2018 novelties about mid October. Last year they even got them out early so they could be on shelves in December to boost sales.

As for late cancellations, no idea about DS but 75150 certainly came late in the day as it was in supermarket Xmas lines. The abrupt cancellation of the last wave of Agents sets in Europe was also probably not listed. I need to ask someone in the know about the specifics - it´s hard to get straight answers when you are outside the circle.

 

Edited by Val-E
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5 hours ago, ravenb99 said:

It was already stated above the list was missing 128 sets.  Of what he had on there all but 5 were correct.   He then added some more of which are all correct too.  

so please let me if we finally reach "final version" of the list rather than "pre alpha", "alpha", and "alpha almost final" of the list.
thanks.

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1 hour ago, Shewie said:

so please let me if we finally reach "final version" of the list rather than "pre alpha", "alpha", and "alpha almost final" of the list.
thanks.

how bout I just give you 2021 for now.  It's small and easy to compile for me cause we are so far out and I'm sure it will grow many times as new sets come out each year.   So might be a few alpha beta gamma  lists til then.

21028 21030 21034 21035 21036 

Least that will prevent a few people from stockpiling to early.

Mods feel free to move to the retiring not so soon open speculation thread...  or the TB, T1 threads will work

Edited by ravenb99
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It was already stated above the list was missing 128 sets.  Of what he had on there all but 5 were correct.   He then added some more of which are all correct too.  


Where did you figure out the other 128? Just guessing or do you have another source?
It was already stated above the list was missing 128 sets.  Of what he had on there all but 5 were correct.   He then added some more of which are all correct too.  


Where did you figure out the other 128? Just guessing or do you have another source?
It was already stated above the list was missing 128 sets.  Of what he had on there all but 5 were correct.   He then added some more of which are all correct too.  


Where did you figure out the other 128? Just guessing or do you have another source?
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42 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

how bout I just give you 2021 for now.  It's small and easy to compile for me cause we are so far out and I'm sure it will grow many times as new sets come out each year.   So might be a few alpha beta gamma  lists til then.

21028 21030 21034 21035 21036 

Least that will prevent a few people from stockpiling to early.

Mods feel free to move to the retiring not so soon open speculation thread...  or the TB, T1 threads will work

Still no Eiffel Tower :( That one will retire after Tower Bridge at this rate.

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how bout I just give you 2021 for now.  It's small and easy to compile for me cause we are so far out and I'm sure it will grow many times as new sets come out each year.   So might be a few alpha beta gamma  lists til then.
21028 21030 21034 21035 21036 
Least that will prevent a few people from stockpiling to early.
Mods feel free to move to the retiring not so soon open speculation thread...  or the TB, T1 threads will work


21035 eol??
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18 minutes ago, Legojona said:

Nice to see the first wave of Brickhheadz going. I'm most surprised about the retiring of these two:

 

 

31051_alt1.png

31065_alt1.png

Why? These creator 3 in 1´ buildings are so similar Lego could release the same one twice and not notice. The lighthouse could do well but it seems they are not really finding a clear market between kids and AFOLS.

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23 hours ago, Gnueck said:

In Germany ToysRUs had quite often KwikEMart at 10%-20% off (which is pretty good here for exclusives)

I returned the Kwik-E-Marts I got from TRU due to the bad condition of the boxes. Maybe other buyers returned them as well. So TRU was able to offer them again at a discount. In the end, waiting for double VIP points plus promo from SAH is less trouble.

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22 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

I returned the Kwik-E-Marts I got from TRU due to the bad condition of the boxes. Maybe other buyers returned them as well. So TRU was able to offer them again at a discount. In the end, waiting for double VIP points plus promo from SAH is less trouble.

TRU is getting better, but I sent many boxes back. The smaller exclusives were usually fine.

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I added the SAH sets with retiring soon tag to the list posted by @Gnueck (mainly Super Heroes and Duplo):

10506    Train Accessory Set
10524    Farm Tractor
10580    LEGO® DUPLO® Deluxe Box of fun
10590    Airport
10724    Batman™ & Superman™ vs. Lex Luthor™
10801    Baby Animals
10808    Little Plane
10853    LEGO® DUPLO® Creative Builder Box
10855    Cinderella´s Magical Castle
21024    Louvre
21026    Venedig
21027    Berlin
21031    Burj Khalifa
21050    Studio
21123    Der Eisengolem
21124    Das End-Portal
21125    Das Dschungel-Baumhaus
21126    Der Wither
21127    Die Festung
21131    Türme aus Eis
21132    Der Dschungeltempel
21133    Das Hexenhaus
21134    Unterschlupf im Wasserfall
31042    Düsenjet
31045    Erforscher der Meere
31046    Schneller Sportflitzer
31047    Propeller-Flugzeug
31048    Hütte am See
31049    Doppelrotor-Hubschrauber
31050    Feinkostladen
31051    Leuchtturm-Insel
31053    Baumhausabenteuer
31054    Blauer Schnellzug
31055    Roter Rennwagen
31059    Straßenrennmaschine
31060    Flugschau-Attraktionen
31063    Strandurlaub
31064    Wasserflugzeug-Abenteuer
31065    Stadthaus an der Parkstraße
41065    Rapunzels perfekter Tag
41066    Annas und Kristoffs Schlittenabenteuer
41067    Belles bezauberndes Schloss
41068    Fest im großen Schloss von Arendelle
41101    Heartlake Großes Hotel
41118    Heartlake Supermarkt
41119    Heartlake Cupcake-Café
41124    Heartlake Welpen-Betreuung
41125    Pferdeanhänger und Tierärztin
41127    Spielspaß im Freizeitpark
41128    Raketen-Karussell
41129    Hot-Dog-Stand im Freizeitpark
41133    Autoscooter im Freizeitpark
41143    Berrys Küche
41144    Suzettes Reitanlage
41147    Annas eisiges Abenteuer
41149    Vaianas Abenteuerinsel
41172    Abenteuer mit dem Wasserdrachen
41175    Lavahöhle des Feuerdrachens
41179    Rettung der Drachenkönigin
41180    Raganas magisches Schattenschloss
41181    Naidas Gondel und der diebische Kobold
41182    Die Gefangennahme von Sophie Jones
41184    Airas Luftschiff und die Jagd nach dem Amulett
41185    Magische Rettung aus dem Kobold-Dorf
41230    Batgirl™ auf den Fersen des Batjets
41231    Harley Quinn™ eilt zu Hilfe
41232    Highschool der Super Heroes
41233    Lashinas Action-Cruiser
41234    Bumblebees™ Hubschrauber
41235    Wonder Womans™ Schlafgemach
41300    Welpen-Meisterschaft
41301    Welpenparade
41302    Welpensalon
41303    Welpenspielplatz
41304    Welpenpark
41305    Emmas Fotostudio
41306    Mias Strandroller
41307    Olivias Erfinderlabor
41308    Stephanies Backstube
41309    Andreas Showbühne
41310    Heartlake Geschenkeservice
41312    Heartlake Sportzentrum
41321    Geländewagen im Wintersportort
41326    Adventskalender
41585    Batman™
41586    Batgirl™
41587    Robin™
41588    The Joker™
41589    Captain America
41590    Iron Man
41591    Black Widow
41592    The Hulk
41593    Captain Jack Sparrow
41594    Captain Armando Salazar
41595    Belle
41596    Beast
42043    Mercedes-Benz Arocs 3245
42044    Düsenflugzeug
42045    Renngleitboot
42046    Fluchtfahrzeug
42047    Polizei-Interceptor
42048    Renn-Kart
42049    Bergbau-Lader
42050    Drag Racer
42052    Schwerlasthubschrauber
42053    Volvo EW160E
42054    CLAAS XERION 5000 TRAC VC
42061    Teleskoplader
60097    Stadtzentrum
60098    Schwerlastzug
60100    Flughafen Starter-Set
60101    Flughafen-Frachtflugzeug
60102    Flughafen VIP-Service
60103    Große Flugschau
60104    Flughafen-Abfertigungshalle
60106    Feuerwehr-Starter-Set
60109    Feuerwehrschiff
60117    Van & Wohnwagen
60119    Fähre
60120    Vulkan Starter-Set
60121    Vulkan-Forschungstruck
60122    Vulkan-Raupe
60123    Vulkan-Versorgungshelikopter
60124    Vulkan-Forscherstation
60129    Polizei-Patrouillen-Boot
60130    Polizeiquartier auf der Gefängnisinsel
60132    Tankstelle
60134    LEGO® City Stadtbewohner
60135    Gangsterjagd auf dem Quad
60136    Polizei-Starter-Set
60142    Geldtransporter
60144    Rennflugzeug
60145    Buggy
60146    Monster-Truck
60147    Angelyacht
60149    Geländewagen mit Katamaran
60151    Dragster-Transporter
60152    Straßenreiniger und Bagger
60155    LEGO® City Adventskalender
60168    Segelboot in Not
70317    Fortrex – Die rollende Festung
70347    Bike der Königlichen Wache
70348    Lances Doppellanzen-Cruiser
70349    Ruinas Käfig-Roller
70350    Triple-Rocker
70351    Clays Blaster-Falke
70352    Jestros Monströses Monster-Mobil (MoMoMo
70353    Der Gargoyl-Heli
70354    Axls Krawallmacher
70355    Aarons Klettermaxe
70356    Der stürmische Steinkoloss
70359    Lance vs. lightning
70361    Macys Robo-Abwurfdrache
70362    Action Clay
70363    Action Macy
70364    Action Aaron
70365    Action Axl
70366    Action Lance
70588    Titan-Ninjamobil
70589    Felsen-Buggy
70591    Kryptarium-Gefängnisausbruch
70592    Schatzgräber M.E.C.
70593    Der Grüne Energie-Drache
70594    Die Leuchtturmbelagerung
70595    Ultra-Tarnkappen-Fahrzeug
70621    Vermillion Falle
70622    Wüstenflitzer
70623    Schatten des Ninja-Flugseglers
70624    Vermillion Eindringling
70625    Samurai Turbomobil
70626    Verhängnisvolle Dämmerung
70627    Drachenschmiede
70902    Catwoman™: Catcycle-Verfolgungsjagd
70904    Clayface™: Matsch-Attacke
70907    Killer Crocs Truck
70908    Der Scuttler
70915    Doppeltes Unheil durch Two-Face™
75101    First Order Special Forces TIE Fighter™
75102    Poe's X-Wing Fighter™
75104    Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle™
75105    Millennium Falcon™
75111    Darth Vader™
75114    First Order Stormtrooper™
75118    Captain Phasma™
75125    Resistance X-Wing Fighter™
75126    First Order Snowspeeder™
75128    TIE Advanced Prototype™
75129    Wookiee™ Gunship
75131    Resistance Trooper Battle Pack
75132    First Order Battle Pack
75137    Carbon-Freezing Chamber
75145    Eclipse Fighter™
75147    StarScavenger™
75148    Encounter on Jakku™
75149    Resistance X-Wing Fighter™
75151    Clone Turbo Tank™
75152    Imperial Assault Hovertank™
75153    AT-ST™ Walker
75154    TIE Striker™
75155    Rebel U-Wing Fighter™
75156    Krennics Imperial Shuttle
75162    Y-Wing™ Microfighter
75163    Krennic's Imperial Shuttle™ Microfighter
75164    Rebel Trooper Battle Pack
75165    Imperial Trooper Battle Pack
75170    The Phantom
75171    Battle on Scarif
75184    LEGO® Star Wars™ Adventskalender
75870    Chevrolet Corvette Z06
75871    Ford Mustang GT
75872    Audi R18 e-tron quattro
75873    Audi R8 LMS ultra
75874    Chevrolet Camaro Drag Race
75875    Ford F-150 Raptor & Ford Model A Hot Rod
75876    Porsche 919 Hybrid and 917K Pit Lane
75882    Ferrari FXX K & Entwicklungszentrum
76051    Super Hero Airport Battle
76052    Batman™ Classic TV Series – Batcave
76057    Spider-Man: Web Warriors Ultimate Bridge Battle
76073    Mighty Micros: Wolverine vs. Magneto
76080    Ayesha's Revenge
853441 Mini-doll Carry Case
853443 VIP Cardboard Name Plate
853521 LEGO® NEXO KNIGHTS™ Clay Key Chain
853564 LEGO® Elves Me and My Dragon Display

Edited by Brian Briggs
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4 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I guess you added the SAH tagged sets - there´s also the US ones like Heartlake Performance School and even then the list won´t be complete for all themes.

I only added those from EU SAH.

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Damn, I need to get some of those lighthouses.

Or 70359 (Lance vs. lightning) which had limited availability at retail. A sleeper? :hyper:

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We´ll be laughing through gritted teeth if those Nexo Suits are the Ekimu the Money Makers of 2017.

My own list contains 324 sets but  I don´t track Classic,  Juniors or Duplo. We are probably looking at a figure between 350 and 400 sets ceasing production now.

Edited by Val-E
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13 hours ago, Shewie said:

I preferred it over the last couple of weeks. A few sets just performed a Lord Lucan without warning.

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