Retiring Soon - open speculation

[bricklues]

Prediction time for 2017 Exclusives
High probability.
T1, TB, Simpsons, SHIELD, PC, WTS, Ferris Wheel
Medium probability.
ToA, Slave, Mini, Minecraft Village, Batcave, Tie
 

Where is "High probability" how soon?

[JM123]

On 14-1-2017 at 4:50 PM, TabbyBoy said:

Did I state WHEN the Palace Cinema will retire? My thoughts are that it will be this year at a time that we don't expect. Were you prepared for when the Town Hall retired? I wasn't as I on holiday and all were gone when I returned ;-(

According to friends at John Lewis, the T1 & Mini far outsell the F40. I have dozens of each so I won't be caught out. However, I do have a feeling that the F40 will be a poor performer and I feel a small loss coming on.

I think the F40 will do well in the end (licensed, unique pieces). I also have a feeling this one can potentially be discontinued before the T1 and Cooper due to bad sales / expiring Ferrari license . We all know that Lego made new rules with respect to retirements (i.e. 10224-Town Hall). 

[Val-E]

The retirement window for this year is pretty much closed now so I guess these will all stick around till October, but there may be the odd summer early retirement.

The high probability sets were mostly discounted inthe last SAH BF sale in Europe, except for Shield.

I would also add GBHQ in as a medium probability set if the license were to finish this year. That would make sense seeing as both Ectos are likely to be done in 2017.

[Val-E]

Just now, JM123 said:

I think the F40 will do well in the end (licensed, unique pieces). I also have a feeling this one can potentially be discontinued before the T1 and Cooper due to bad sales / expiring Ferrari license . We all know that Lego made new rules with respect to retirements (i.e. 10224-Town Hall). 

Don´t count on it. Speed Champions S3 has Ferrari sets and we are likely to see  Technic Ferrari at some point too. Last year´s retirements brought no surprises in the end so maybe more of the same in 2017. Doubt is if PC will last 4.5 years or 5.5 years.

[JM123]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Don´t count on it. Speed Champions S3 has Ferrari sets and we are likely to see  Technic Ferrari at some point too. Last year´s retirements brought no surprises in the end so maybe more of the same in 2017. Doubt is if PC will last 4.5 years or 5.5 years.

I only got 2 thus far, not buying more. In the EU, it is still very widely available so yeah.. you can still buy a ton of these if such an unlikely event (early 10248 retirement) happens. 

[fantomas007]

My predictions for 2017:

80 % probability

TB - 7th year in production, another death star, but i cannot imagine to be longer than DS - its not a playset, which must be still on shelves. I expect finishing during this year. I would give 95%, but nothing is sure in actual lego world.

VW T1 - another neverending story - will reach 6 year in September. Even still popular, its too long live + there are 3 another cars, another coming in August, so 5 together! Big candidate for soon EOL.

PC - it seems that modulars are again on regular schedule - GE finished a year ago, PS now, so its logical to finish PC in the end of year. It is also a long time in production + we have 5 modulars on shelves and next year will come another - these are strong arguments to finish PC.

Simpsons house + Kmarkt - rumours about finishing licence, should finish last year, but are still here - i think they will live till the end of this year

50%:

Tie fighter - 2nd year will reach in May, discounted on black friday, probably not good seller - EOL in the end of 2017 would be logical (after 2.5 years, what is real time for not good selling sets).

Shield Helicareer - will reach 2. year in March, dont know how good seller is outside Europe, but in my country nobody wants it, even heroes fans are reserved. Tumbler lived shorter, so Helicareer could finish this year - the only reason to keep it further is that there is no other Heroes exclusive big set.

ToA - will reach 2 years in the end of this year. Even a nice set, nobody wants it and is often discounted. The problem is that it is not a part of popular exclusive serie as modulars, UCS, etc, and is from children theme. The reason why is still here is probably new Ninjago movie. It will go to EOL this or next year.

Ferris Wheel - great set, but same problem as ToA - no part of serie. So nobody is talking about it. Will reach 2 years in summer, so its 50/50 whether will stop in the end of year.

Minicooper - younger, but not so popular as T1, so they could change the succession and finish Minicooper, or finish 2 cars together.

20 %:

Slave - already 2 years, but all good selling UCS sets live at least 3 years. But nobody knows...

10%:

Ghostbusters HQ - just 1 year after releasing, good seller, cannot imagine finishing it this year - only if there is a strict licence deadline.

Ferrari - if it has worse selling numbers than Minicooper, can be unexpectedly finished this year.

PR or DO - even if the finish PC in the end of year, there is still a lot of cannibalism among modulars - on January 2018 there will be 5 together, 1 very big and expensive. So it will be no surprise if they finish 2 modulars at once - so with PC can end PR or DO (which is younger than PR, but PR is more beautiful).

 

 

[Furious_george]

Helicarrier is being murdered by Chinese copy's on Aussie eBay. Shame it wasn't retired last year. Really could have saved it.

[mauro23]

Has anyone noticed that 40158 has no more Retiring soon label...?

[zekzek]

5 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

40158 has no more Retiring soon label...

It never had it...

[HandyHand]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

Prediction time for 2017 Exclusives

High probability.

T1, TB, Simpsons, SHIELD, PC, WTS, Ferris Wheel

Medium probability.

ToA, Slave, Mini, Minecraft Village, Batcave, Tie

Considering that TLG apparently wants to move away from Star Wars UCS display-only sets, and now include play features with ever set they're releasing, I'd say that the UC TIE Fighter now stands a higher risk of retiring before the Slave-1 ...

We'll have a better idea about this when the next UCS set is revealed. If the rumoured UCS Snowspeeder is more or less a remade 10129 (without play features) then this may not be the case. But if it's somewhere between the 75049 Snowspeeder and the 10129 Rebel Snowspeeder, bigger and more detailed than 75049, but smaller and more minifig-sized than 10129, then that says a lot what to expect for the near future.

[GhostDad]

3 hours ago, Furious_george said:

Helicarrier is being murdered by Chinese copy's on Aussie eBay. Shame it wasn't retired last year. Really could have saved it.

Aussie eBay, and US eBay, and don't even get me started on alibaba...

Folks, when you're invested in a set, you have to defend it.  I have no Helicarriers and never will so can't do it for y'all.  But eBay will kick these !@#$ers out of the LEGO category if you report them.  It's super easy to do using the report link in every item description.

[zskid00]

5 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

But eBay will kick these !@#$ers out of the LEGO category if you report them.  It's super easy to do using the report link in every item description.

What category do you report the listing under?

[LegoBro]

Aussie eBay, and US eBay, and don't even get me started on alibaba...
Folks, when you're invested in a set, you have to defend it.  I have no Helicarriers and never will so can't do it for y'all.  But eBay will kick these !@#$ers out of the LEGO category if you report them.  It's super easy to do using the report link in every item description.

I've reported in the past and they do take the listings down. However, after about the first 5 I reported they seem to have really slowed down taking down the listings.@GhostDad what exactly do you report them on so we can all be on the same page. Fake replica listing?

[Val-E]

8 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

Aussie eBay, and US eBay, and don't even get me started on alibaba...

Folks, when you're invested in a set, you have to defend it.  I have no Helicarriers and never will so can't do it for y'all.  But eBay will kick these !@#$ers out of the LEGO category if you report them.  It's super easy to do using the report link in every item description.

We have a thread for this but I´ll say it´s easy to report but here they ae doing sweet FA.

[ZULU]

5 hours ago, fantomas007 said:

My predictions for 2017:

80 % probability

TB - 7th year in production, another death star, but i cannot imagine to be longer than DS - its not a playset, which must be still on shelves. I expect finishing during this year. I would give 95%, but nothing is sure in actual lego world.

VW T1 - another neverending story - will reach 6 year in September. Even still popular, its too long live + there are 3 another cars, another coming in August, so 5 together! Big candidate for soon EOL.

PC - it seems that modulars are again on regular schedule - GE finished a year ago, PS now, so its logical to finish PC in the end of year. It is also a long time in production + we have 5 modulars on shelves and next year will come another - these are strong arguments to finish PC.

Simpsons house + Kmarkt - rumours about finishing licence, should finish last year, but are still here - i think they will live till the end of this year

50%:

Tie fighter - 2nd year will reach in May, discounted on black friday, probably not good seller - EOL in the end of 2017 would be logical (after 2.5 years, what is real time for not good selling sets).

Shield Helicareer - will reach 2. year in March, dont know how good seller is outside Europe, but in my country nobody wants it, even heroes fans are reserved. Tumbler lived shorter, so Helicareer could finish this year - the only reason to keep it further is that there is no other Heroes exclusive big set.

ToA - will reach 2 years in the end of this year. Even a nice set, nobody wants it and is often discounted. The problem is that it is not a part of popular exclusive serie as modulars, UCS, etc, and is from children theme. The reason why is still here is probably new Ninjago movie. It will go to EOL this or next year.

Ferris Wheel - great set, but same problem as ToA - no part of serie. So nobody is talking about it. Will reach 2 years in summer, so its 50/50 whether will stop in the end of year.

Minicooper - younger, but not so popular as T1, so they could change the succession and finish Minicooper, or finish 2 cars together.

20 %:

Slave - already 2 years, but all good selling UCS sets live at least 3 years. But nobody knows...

10%:

Ghostbusters HQ - just 1 year after releasing, good seller, cannot imagine finishing it this year - only if there is a strict licence deadline.

Ferrari - if it has worse selling numbers than Minicooper, can be unexpectedly finished this year.

PR or DO - even if the finish PC in the end of year, there is still a lot of cannibalism among modulars - on January 2018 there will be 5 together, 1 very big and expensive. So it will be no surprise if they finish 2 modulars at once - so with PC can end PR or DO (which is younger than PR, but PR is more beautiful).

 

 

Nice summary. 

Pity I don't agree with much you've written ?.

My thoughts? 

Only HC and Simpsons are probably done in 2017. And that isn't really relevant as these sets are not selling well anyways and can be qualified Turds...

The other sets could keep going on and on and on...

[ZULU]

6 hours ago, Val-E said:

Prediction time for 2017 Exclusives

High probability.

T1, TB, Simpsons, SHIELD, PC, WTS, Ferris Wheel

Medium probability.

ToA, Slave, Mini, Minecraft Village, Batcave, Tie

 

T1 and TB? 

They just have been launched! The new box gives these sets the reset they need!

[petersjonny]

I'm repeating myself but helicarrier and simpsons (house at least) are done by years end. 

I put 80% chance on PC being gone too

[Shewie]

Mini Creator got new box as well, I don't think it has anything to fresh start into new... but it's a matter of standardization in implementing and developing technical and visual standards of packaging for certain sets.

[GhostDad]

7 hours ago, LegoBro said:

 

 

I've reported in the past and they do take the listings down. However, after about the first 5 I reported they seem to have really slowed down taking down the listings.@GhostDad what exactly do you report them on so we can all be on the same page. Fake replica listing?

 

Listing practices / Search and browse manipulation / Listing in an incorrect category OR Misusing a brand name (sometimes both apply; listing in an incorrect category, if the item is in fact listed in the LEGO category, is the more effective option -- misusing a brand name applies if the title includes the word Lego).

Obviously the greater sin here, legally and ethically, is the selling of a counterfeit item.  However, in my experience it is very difficult to get an eBay item removed on that basis alone.  Fortunately, if the fakes are kept out of the Lego category and denied use of Lego in the title, they are almost invisible in best match search results.

[HandyHand]

Finally ! Doctor Who TOOS:

Edited January 22, 2017 by Haay

[Slatesbin]

Do Lego ever retire sets in Europe but keep selling in the US or vice versa.

[Furious_george]

1 minute ago, Slatesbin said:

Do Lego ever retire sets in Europe but keep selling in the US or vice versa.

Yes.

[redjersey]

1 hour ago, Haay said:

Finally ! Doctor Who TOOS:

I counted more than 30 Dr Who sets on the shelves in the Liverpool Lego Store on Friday, marked down to £34.99. Looked in again today, didn't count them but most are still there.

[Shewie]

EU memebers question mainly addressed to you.
What happened with Winter Holiday Train 10254, it's been completely removed from EU but still available in US. 
What's more it wasn't flagged as a RS set which makes this situation even more mysterious, short lifespan and quick recall?
Thoughts?

[stlux]

That's standard Lego procedure for the Winter Village theme in Europe: all sets in the theme get removed from LEGO Shop at Home after Christmas and are put online again in early October.

In the US the theme is available year-round.