Retiring Soon - open speculation

[exciter1]

5 minutes ago, Mos_Eisley said:

Didn't you just say you're out and sold everything?  I don't know why I'm bothering to ask. 

You're welcome! Now you can add another page to your diary.

 

[GhostDad]

TabbyBoy (fittingly enough) reminds me of my cats...  I want to go out!  Right now!  Never mind!  It's too damn cold!  Wait!  Maybe it's warmer on the other side of the house!  Let's try again there!

In other news, Simpsons House, Kwik-E-Mart, and Ferris Wheel are all limit 5 in Europe, not marked as retiring soon anywhere, and available in every nation's LEGO Shop at Home site.  They are all limit 1 in the US, but of course Simpsons House and Kwik-E-Mart have been limit 1 for years (I never checked Ferris Wheel).  I don't think this means anything.

Edited December 17, 2016 by GhostDad

[Guest TabbyBoy]

9 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

You're welcome! Now you can add another page to your diary.

 

Would you pass on a bargain depicting the best SW baddie of them all? I can't think of a better reason for a u-turn. It's within my new -60% buy-in threshold. Easy money I say ;-)

[Val-E]

7 hours ago, Mos_Eisley said:

Didn't you just say you're out and sold everything?  I don't know why I'm bothering to ask. 

 

[Furious_george]

7 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

Would you pass on a bargain depicting the best SW baddie of them all? I can't think of a better reason for a u-turn. It's within my new -60% buy-in threshold. Easy money I say ;-)

Will Dr Turd = Darth Turd?

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 hour ago, Furious_george said:

Will Dr Turd = Darth Turd?

I can sell both for £10 profit each right now while still very available. Where's the turd in rhat?

[Frank Brickowski]

1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said:

I can sell both for £10 profit each right now while still very available. Where's the turd in rhat?

The assessment of "turd or not" should as always be based on (potential) growth related to RRP, not low buy-in or uninformed consumers.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

23 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

The assessment of "turd or not" should as always be based on (potential) growth related to RRP, not low buy-in or uninformed consumers.

I somewhat disagree, there's hardly any meat on the bone on any set (except eg. Raptor Escape) these days if bought at RRP. Buy-in is now more important than ever, we should all know that. I would NOT have even looked at DV if he was at the RRP of £24.99.

Anyway, how can a buildable figure of the Great Lord himself possibly fail at 60% off? This set is hardly a turd and if aftermarket prices don't reach RRP, the set is NOT a turd, it's the QFLLs that are turds! Do you remember old other buildable figure, Iron Man? I bought 100x from The Entertainer for £9 (25% off RRP) whiile they were still very available by the shed load and I sold the lot for £30+ within a year of EOL.

I already have pre-orders for 50x DV this morning at £16 each which is £300 instant profit for doing nothing. I'm going to flip the first 200 over the next week and then the rest can mature. A lot of people don't know that Tesco has restocked on several desirable items.

Edited December 17, 2016 by TabbyBoy

[Frank Brickowski]

1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said:

I somewhat disagree, there's hardly any meat on the bone on any set (except eg. Raptor Escape) these days if bought at RRP. Buy-in is now more important than ever, we should all know that. I would NOT have even looked at DV if he was at the RRP of £24.99.

Anyway, how can a buildable figure of the Great Lord himself possibly fail at 60% off? This set is hardly a turd and if aftermarket prices don't reach RRP, the set is NOT a turd, it's the QFLLs that are turds! Do you remember old other buildable figure, Iron Man? I bought 100x from The Entertainer for £9 (25% off RRP) whiile they were still very available by the shed load and I sold the lot for £30+ within a year of EOL.

I already have pre-orders for 50x DV this morning at £16 each which is £300 instant profit for doing nothing. I'm going to flip the first 200 over the next week and then the rest can mature. A lot of people don't know that Tesco has restocked on several desirable items.

When analysing and assessing the investment potential of sets you always have to relate to the same basis to make things comparable (in terms of CAGR or whatever). It would be pointless if we started discussing about "winner sets" and "loser sets" with everybody relating to their personal buy-in. Of course your individual profit depens on your individual buy-in but "(individual) profit made" and "a set's (universal) potential" are two different things. Just as "investing" and "deal hunting" are two different things. People are constantly mixing up both terms which results in overall confusion in the end.

If your buy-in is low enough, EVERY set becomes a winner profit-wise - but that does not necessarily have something to do with the question if it is a "growth winner". Like I said, everything depends on your perspective. And what you are relating to here is making profit off "deal hunting". We could discuss if "flipping" is really a form of "investing" at all or not. Or if a narrow definition of "investing" would necessarily include holding a set till after EOL (which is not necessary if you intend to make your profit mainly off the margin between buy-in and RRP). Anyway, that is not my point here. All I say is that if you are NOT relating to RRP when labeling a set as "winner" or "loser" you cannot compare anything anymore.

So, all I say is an individually "profitable" set can at the same time be a "loser" set. You just have to point out what you are referring to in a specific case.

Example:
Exo Suit's value still hovering around RRP 2 years after EOL = loser set regarding growth potential. You wont see anybody here talking about Exo Suit as a "winner". Yet, Exo Suit bought at $5, sold for $30 = profitable transaction indeed, but still the set is not a "winner".

Edited December 17, 2016 by Frank Brickowski

[Guest TabbyBoy]

13 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

When analysing and assessing the investment potential of sets you always have to relate to the same basis to make things comparable (in terms of CAGR or whatever). It would be pointless if we started discussing about "winner sets" and "loser sets" with everybody relating to their personal buy-in. Of course your individual profit depens on your individual buy-in but "(individual) profit made" and "a set's (universal) potential" are two different things. Just as "investing" and "deal hunting" are two different things. People are constantly mixing up both terms which results in overall confusion in the end.

If your buy-in is low enough, EVERY set becomes a winner profit-wise - but that does not necessarily have something to do with the question if it is a "growth winner". Like I said, everything depends on your perspective. And what you are relating to here is making profit off "deal hunting". We could discuss if "flipping" is really a form of "investing" at all or not. Or if a narrow definition of "investing" would necessarily include holding a set till after EOL (which is not necessary if you intend to make your profit mainly off the margin between buy-in and RRP). Anyway, that is not my point here. All I say is that if you are NOT relating to RRP when labeling a set as "winner" or "loser" you cannot compare anything anymore.

So, all I say is an individually "profitable" set can at the same time be a "loser" set. You just have to point out what you are referring to in a specific case.

Example:
Exo Suit's value still hovering around RRP 2 years after EOL = loser set regarding growth potential. You wont see anybody here talking about Exo Suit as a "winner". Yet, Exo Suit bought at $5, sold for $30 = profitable transaction indeed, but still the set is not a "winner".

OK, fair enough. Since several retired SW UCS sets (eg. R5) appear to have stagnated, some are now ex-winners. I appreciate now that it's extremely difficult to determine a winner bought at RRP. I only bought the Raptor Escapes out of pure luck only as they were 50% off and I love raptor but, Yes!, a winner even at RRP.

I could say that I'm a "Two-timing Investor" as I also quick flip (if bought dirt cheap) as well as keep the "RRP Winners" for the long haul.

I know a lot of us have slagged off the Exo Suit but, you're now seeing a lot less in the wild and something positive could still happen. However, I don't like to keep too many sets for too long. I offloaded thousands this week and some of the boxes and seals were showing slight signs of long term storage, even in a dry warehouse kept at 15-20C. All my Tower Bridges became unsealed but, I did buy them in 2012 and their first 2 years were in a Summer-Winter-Summer-Winter attic - not good!

[GhostDad]

18 hours ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Example:
Exo Suit's value still hovering around RRP 2 years after EOL = loser set regarding growth potential. You wont see anybody here talking about Exo Suit as a "winner". Yet, Exo Suit bought at $5, sold for $30 = profitable transaction indeed, but still the set is not a "winner".

A whole pallet load of Exo-Suits literally fell off the truck right outside my house.  I ran out there as fast as I could and tried to get the plate number so I could do the right thing and return them, but by the time I got shoes on and made it outside, the truck was long gone.  So what was I to do?  I sold them all right away for $30 each with a $0 buy-in!  Ex-Suit is indeed a winner in my book.*

*This is not a true story.

[Val-E]

19 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

A whole pallet load of Exo-Suits literally fell off the truck right outside my house.  I ran out there as fast as I could and tried to get the plate number so I could do the right thing and return them, but by the time I got shoes on and made it outside, the truck was long gone.  So what was I to do?  I sold them all right away for $30 each with a $0 buy-in!  Ex-Suit is indeed a winner in my book.*

*This is not a true story.

Did they fall or were they pushed?

[Alucard1982]

A whole pallet load of Exo-Suits literally fell off the truck right outside my house.  I ran out there as fast as I could and tried to get the plate number so I could do the right thing and return them, but by the time I got shoes on and made it outside, the truck was long gone.  So what was I to do?  I sold them all right away for $30 each with a $0 buy-in!  Ex-Suit is indeed a winner in my book.*
*This is not a true story.

The pallet of Exo-suits came with froghurt.

But the froghurt was also cursed.

[Val-E]

No retiring soon tag for Angry Birds. I wonder if they will get a reprieve as they have been restocked after the BF sale. Like anybody cares, right?

In other news, Simpsons KWEM and House are out to 30 days at US shop.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Val-E

[Guest TabbyBoy]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

No retiring soon tag for Angry Birds. I wonder if they will get a reprieve as they have been restocked after the BF sale. Like anybody cares, right?

LEGO were simply 5yrs too late with Angry Birds. Why introduce a theme based on a forgotten game?

[exciter1]

LEGO were simply 5yrs too late with Angry Birds. Why introduce a theme based on a forgotten game?

They were 20 years too late with The Simpsons, so what's next?

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, TabbyBoy said:

LEGO were simply 5yrs too late with Angry Birds. Why introduce a theme based on a forgotten game?

and 20 years too late with The Simpsons!

[Sprocket77]

2 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

They were 20 years too late with The Simpsons, so what's next?

Didn't hurt the DeLorean being nearly 30 years late

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

They were 20 years too late with The Simpsons, so what's next?

2000 years to soon with Nexo Knights.

[exciter1]

2 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

Didn't hurt the DeLorean being nearly 30 years late

Still doesn't explain what the hell is going on with the X-Wing and the Death Star.

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Still doesn't explain what the hell is going on with the X-Wing and the Death Star.

They were 2 years late in retiring the first and 6 with the second.

[ponderingzissou]

7 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

Didn't hurt the DeLorean being nearly 30 years late

I'm assuming with the DeLorean and The Simpsons they were able to (or expected to) cash in on retro appeal. There are still lots of Simpsons fans and certain 80's and 90's themes/shows/movies are still very popular (both with adults and a new generation). We see in the film industry especially... rehashes/reboots/sequels of older movies (Bladerunner, Robo-Cop, Total Recall, Ghostbusters, Independence Day... and so on... some with more success than others). Angry Birds... far too soon for the retro appeal (for lack of a better term) and too late for anyone to really be interested. 

Even though I think the Nexo Knights are a fun theme for kids (maybe its just because I'm castle fan and grew up with He-man) I'm having no luck selling them. I can sell the buildable creatures, some of the villians (like Jestro) but I'm stuck with the main "Knight" characters (despite their interesting armor and fun face prints). I find the theme interesting (although I definitely would have preferred some different in the Castle/fantasy genre) I have no idea what to expect in the future with the theme. 

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, ponderingzissou said:

I'm assuming with the DeLorean and The Simpsons they were able to (or expected to) cash in on retro appeal. There are still lots of Simpsons fans and certain 80's and 90's themes/shows/movies are still very popular (both with adults and a new generation). We see in the film industry especially... rehashes/reboots/sequels of older movies (Bladerunner, Robo-Cop, Total Recall, Ghostbusters, Independence Day... and so on... some with more success than others). Angry Birds... far too soon for the retro appeal (for lack of a better term) and too late for anyone to really be interested. 

Even though I think the Nexo Knights are a fun theme for kids (maybe its just because I'm castle fan and grew up with He-man) I'm having no luck selling them. I can sell the buildable creatures, some of the villians (like Jestro) but I'm stuck with the main "Knight" characters (despite their interesting armor and fun face prints). I find the theme interesting (although I definitely would have preferred some different in the Castle/fantasy genre) I have no idea what to expect in the future with the theme. 

Way too soon to be selling Nexo unless you stole or found them! Clearance at 40% in a lot of shops but we will only see when the big sets have retired -- their could be a Chima Lion temple in there down the line.

[ponderingzissou]

14 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Way too soon to be selling Nexo unless you stole or found them! Clearance at 40% in a lot of shops but we will only see when the big sets have retired -- their could be a Chima Lion temple in there down the line.

I agree. I'm learning. I bought them at a huge discount and was selling the minfigs (or in this case.. holding them waiting for buyers lol) to pay for the parts. Its how I fell into the selling LEGO obsession (selling minifigs to build up parts collection).

Edited December 18, 2016 by ponderingzissou

[Val-E]

Looks like you picked the wrong theme to start investing.

Airplane meme placeholder.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Val-E