Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, KShine said:

I only half agree about this. Star Wars will continue to live on (past the initial over hype).

Yes, some of the movies/ideas that Disney has will likely flop, but some of the directions that they take it could very possibly have a new life of their own.

Didn't you declared SW dead many years ago (in a blog I think), and at the time suggest you thought that the coming movies (pumped out every year) would help to bring it back, and keep it alive? 

Yes...I assumed the new STAR WARS films would be every 2-3 years and based on new characters and timelines...not movies like the up and coming Rogue One and similar movies that are utilizing old ideas, events and characters.  Big difference.  What I thought was a blessing for the STAR WARS LEGO sets, could be a major detriment to the theme.

[fossilrock]

Well, technically I will say Rogue One feels partly fresh.  The characters that comprise the rebel crew like Baze, Jyn, Cassian, etc are completely new to the Star Wars universe, and so maybe they can do something interesting with them.  Vader is only in it for a few minutes from what I understand.  The movie itself I look forward to... but I do think there is going to be too much oversaturation.  If each movie has 20 new lego sets attached to it, 25 new 6" figures, 40 new 3.75" figures, countless hot wheels, cars, and other marketing gimmics, it all gets kind of overwhelming to think about how much is attached to a single film. 

In the end most of it might be neglected.  This is where too much of something might not be a good thing.  Less can be more.

[Infiltrator]

9 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Yes...I assumed the new STAR WARS films would be every 2-3 years and based on new characters and timelines...not movies like the up and coming Rogue One and similar movies that are utilizing old ideas, events and characters.  Big difference.  What I thought was a blessing for the STAR WARS LEGO sets, could be a major detriment to the theme.

You may be right, but don't forget that Star Wars Lego is also Lego and you can use the bricks for other builds. Lego will always be in demand. Maybe the market will be saturated and the profits will be slighter than before but the CAGR is still quite good compared to other forms saving money.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Infiltrator

[Ed Mack]

2 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Well, technically I will say Rogue One feels partly fresh.  The characters that comprise the rebel crew like Baze, Jyn, Cassian, etc are completely new to the Star Wars universe, and so maybe they can do something interesting with them.  Vader is only in it for a few minutes from what I understand.  The movie itself I look forward to... but I do think there is going to be too much oversaturation.  If each movie has 20 new lego sets attached to it, 25 new 6" figures, 40 new 3.75" figures, countless hot wheels, cars, and other marketing gimmics, it all gets kind of overwhelming to think about how much is attached to a single film. 

In the end most of it might be neglected.  This is where too much of something might not be a good thing.  Less can be more.

Sure, they will all have some new characters, but they will also have some of the old...and the old vehicles as well...which is the main design choice for LEGO designers.  There will be a new AT-AT at some point I'm sure and Star Destroyer no doubt.  I'm a huge fan as well, but there will be a point when people get tired of the franchise if new movies are released annually.  It was my original belief that the STAR WARS movie sequels would be sequels...not "equals."

There will always be solid sales of toys and other collectibles related to any STAR WARS film, but as many of you like to talk about it in LEGO secondary market terms, there will a "saturation" of products and a point where even solid sales will be looked as as substandard.  

[BarryZola]

I remember looking at the best results from post-retirement sales over the past year supplied by certain members on here (Val-E for one I think, thanks!) and certain Star Wars sets always seemed to be a more sure bet than other genre's overall statistically (I think). Obviously it depends on picking sensible sets, and there's never a guarantee of a great result, but logic would tell you that it's not unwise to look at the Star Wars sets among your first considerations. Plenty of remakes and stuff muddying the waters, although I'm pretty sure there are several sets that we've been stocking up on that should do at least OK.....

[cladner]

sigh.  the bubble speculation thread has contaminated the fun side of brickpicker - retirement speculation.

 

[Val-E]

Just now, cladner said:

sigh.  the bubble speculation thread has contaminated the fun side of brickpicker - retirement speculation.

 

This is the realising soon thread, right?

[BearCrash]

14 minutes ago, Val-E said:

This is the realising soon thread, right?

Auto-correct?

[KShine]

8 minutes ago, cladner said:

sigh.  the bubble speculation thread has contaminated the fun side of brickpicker - retirement speculation.

Well, no one is feeling particularly over inflated at the moment.

 

[LegoBro]

Well, no one is feeling particularly over inflated at the moment.
 

I'm elated, but I took the red pill though. Or is that the blue one?

[Val-E]

9 minutes ago, BearCrash said:

Auto-correct?

Yup, you don´t want to know what it changes Benny´s Spaceship to.

[biking_tiger]

42 minutes ago, legoboy16 said:

 

I'm elated, but I took the red pill though. Or is that the blue one?

 

Purple. That's the one I took. 

[Will 4]

Have people not considered the fact that people are passing Lego onto their kids reducing Lego sales?

[Ed Mack]

1 hour ago, cladner said:

sigh.  the bubble speculation thread has contaminated the fun side of brickpicker - retirement speculation.

 

I agree...But unfortunately they are somewhat interconnected.  I thought the recent retirement news was a positive for a change, but now even good news is met with despair and disdain.

[Sprocket77]

2 minutes ago, Will 4 said:

Have people not considered the fact that people are passing Lego onto their kids reducing Lego sales?

How is that going to reduce sales, if anything it would do the exact opposite, bringing a new generation into Lego?

[Will 4]

Just now, Sprocket77 said:

How is that going to reduce sales, if anything it would do the exact opposite, bringing a new generation into Lego?

Instead of buying presents they give the older sets instead or say they have enough. (according to parents)

[BearCrash]

2 minutes ago, Will 4 said:

Instead of buying presents they give the older sets instead or say they have enough. (according to parents)

Do you have kids? That's not how it works. At least not for the people I know.

My old Lego is still at my parent's home and my kids play with them when they're there. At home, they have Star Wars, Friends, Chima, Ninjago and Nexo Knights sets.

[Sprocket77]

1 minute ago, Will 4 said:

Instead of buying presents they give the older sets instead or say they have enough. (according to parents)

It doesn't work that way with kids, second hand presents just don't cut the mustard.

[king156]

On ‎25‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 8:34 PM, Haay said:

Be careful though. You might get your order cancelled because of this:

I ordered a VW Beetle last Sunday to get the double VIP + Countdown Calendar promo, and then that very same day I got notified through email that my order was cancelled because I had already bought a VW Beetle recently (using the €10 discount code + London Bus promo combination ) and only one set per household rule applied....

Curious that this notification is shown at all sets. Even sets that have an order limit of 10 !

Funny you say that, has your funds been re released by your bank yet ? Been 5 days for me and still not showing back in my "available balance" What's the £10 discount code ?

[BarryZola]

5 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I agree...But unfortunately they are somewhat interconnected.  I thought the recent retirement news was a positive for a change, but now even good news is met with despair and disdain.

I would suggest that many regular members deep down are very happy with the recent retirements. However, they probably don't want to appear too upbeat about things in-case things don't turn out well (as the game hasn't been as kind in recent times as it was previously), and this also will lead to newer invester's not wanting to appear to be too excited as they are already used to the relative negativity of the past year approx as reported by the more experienced. It's all a bit negative, but I bet most pickers on this site are loaded or getting 'more' loaded on Pet Shops, Ecto's, and Wall-E's as the days go by. I think people are getting that warm feeling inside as they see the official tags go up on the sites, but they're less willing to share the goodness in-case things go pear-shaped. Anyway, in for 6 out of the 8 recently retired and happy to sit and see what happens. May grab a few more.

[landphieran]

I don't believe people are hiding their feelings. Everyone has been pretty open about the fear.

There is a wide range of high discounts on exclusive sets and they are not selling out. This should be enough of an indicator of the quantity of items Lego has made and/or the lack of popularity of the sets. I have minimal investments in the "retiring soon sets" and have attempted to pursue some gems. I believe the exclusives will make money, especially at a discount, but it will take time and patience. 

I cut a lot of loses this year and condensed my portfolio. It always hurts to admit defeat but I feel good to be clean again

[Lordoflego]

[mezzaluna]

3 hours ago, fossilrock said:

I just saw a sketch that showed a First Order Stormtrooper for Episode 8, and it was kind of a disappointment. Of course, every movie will need to change the costume of the stormtrooper slightly to create a new marketing gimmick to sell more toys.  Now the first order stormtrooper will have a bit of a hybrid mask that references the OT stormtrooper. 

To me that gets old.  Stick with the same helmet from the force awakens.  Jeez...  But once again, now that Disney has this franchise, they'll do stupid things like this.  And we will see 6 different variants of that trooper.  I really think by the time the sixth film rolls around a few years from now, this franchise will need a break, but they won't do that.  By then they'll have a TV series (their own variation of GOT, or TWD) and more films like an Obi trilogy, or a new Han Solo triology that will oversaturate the market. 

I admit, I enjoy collecting star wars, and I have a collection of stuff that goes back across all 3 eras, but I do think this era will begin to wane well before the sixth film comes out...  I'm hoping after the sixth film, they instead leave it rest for a bit, but I doubt they will do that.

tr-8r!

[HandyHand]

1 hour ago, king156 said:

Funny you say that, has your funds been re released by your bank yet ? Been 5 days for me and still not showing back in my "available balance" What's the £10 discount code ?

Just checked. It shows as "Reserved" in my Credit-Card statement. I'll keep an eye on that.

The £10 / €10 / $10 discount code was to celebrate the release of the new LEGO Shop at Home website. The last days that promo was valid were October 3rd and October 4th.

[fossilrock]

2 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

I agree...But unfortunately they are somewhat interconnected.  I thought the recent retirement news was a positive for a change, but now even good news is met with despair and disdain.

 

2 hours ago, BarryZola said:

I would suggest that many regular members deep down are very happy with the recent retirements. However, they probably don't want to appear too upbeat about things in-case things don't turn out well (as the game hasn't been as kind in recent times as it was previously), and this also will lead to newer invester's not wanting to appear to be too excited as they are already used to the relative negativity of the past year approx as reported by the more experienced. It's all a bit negative, but I bet most pickers on this site are loaded or getting 'more' loaded on Pet Shops, Ecto's, and Wall-E's as the days go by. I think people are getting that warm feeling inside as they see the official tags go up on the sites, but they're less willing to share the goodness in-case things go pear-shaped. Anyway, in for 6 out of the 8 recently retired and happy to sit and see what happens. May grab a few more.

Yeah, because last year, everyone did that too, and none of the exclusives are doing much out of the gates.  Sure, you could sell your red 5s and make about a 10% return, but overall most of those sets have hit a wall compared to previous years.   Expecting this years crop to perform better than last year? Well, then some might have taken the blue pill, but I choose to be more realistic.  

I do think some sets HAVE potential, don't get me wrong.  Lego will retire hundreds of sets, and of those maybe a handful (like 10) will do something interesting and make people money.  But, that's a lot of hit and miss that keeps getting a larger ratio every year.  In the end the sets everyone thinks are going to do well, will in turn be horded by more and more people since others will be thinking they have the next 3x set, and in the end the oversaturation of resellers will cause it to stagnate and not even hit last years levels.  

So, am I excited that Ecto1, or Pet Shop is retiring?  Not really.  I love the Pet Shop, don't get me wrong... it's a fun build, and a beautiful set to look at when done.  But, so many have them waiting to resell them, and if you judge from the previous modulars that went out into retirement, well while they have doubled in price over a two year period, there's no saying that the Pet Shop is going to perform better than GE, or the FB!  More than likely it wont.  More than likely it will take 3 to 4 years to reach that level, and after fees and shipping (which goes up every year), whose to say by the time it finally does hit the 300.00 US mark, that it will net the same gain that selling a GE would during the same time frame.  More than likely it won't.   At that point you are holding large sets that take up a lot of space, and making less and less money as each year goes on.