Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Val-E]

5 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

What data do people have to prove modulars are no longer good investment options? The last retired one, GE, is bringing at least $100 profit after all fees. Lower than expected maybe but not shabby at all. 

The price of gold is the media´s favourite barometer.

[zskid00]

Yes it brings in good money now but how long ago did you buy it?  The GE was the last retirement for modulars in 2014 hot on the heels of the surprise Town Hall retirement the same year.  There were none in 2015 so people are expecting a bit of a gap before you can make money on any current modulars, especially if none are retired at the end of this year.  Pet Shop is definitely due.

Edited October 18, 2016 by zskid00

[exciter1]

14 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

What data do people have to prove modulars are no longer good investment options? The last retired one, GE, is bringing at least $100 profit after all fees. Lower than expected maybe but not shabby at all. 

I just like sets that stick to a 1.5 - 2 year lifecycle, rather than sets than linger on for 3-5 years before seeing any gains.

[Val-E]

It´s also the law of diminishing returns.Each modular apart from TH is worth less than the previous edition. PS will probably top out at 250-275 and PC the same.

More people than ever buying them but more than ever to resell so there is not even real demand from box opening end users.

Edited October 18, 2016 by Val-E

[Guest TabbyBoy]

15 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

Say hypothetically Doctor Who does well, seeing as you have 200+, how long are you going to wait before selling/ how many sets will you be dumping on ebay in a certain period? As even if Doctor who is a success will take you a long time to get rid of that amount seeing as there is already such a number on ebay plus the shadow inventory of everyone on here who are not speaking up on how many sets they have.

I'll put the whole lot in a single listing assuming there's growth for say, £79.99 Buy It Now with automatic Best Offer enabled. I really can't be arsed to wait for an auction to end and the last time I did that, a set had 120 watcher and the price didn't rise. I think 99% of watchers are also resellers checking your sold prices before they undercut you. It's also surprising how many don't use the best offer. Since I got them fairly cheap, I should be able to compete OK. This set seems to be slagged off more than it should be so I doubt anybody else is close to the quantity I have which will be stopping at 251 (1 for me!). I remember people (including me) saying how butt ugly the Delorean was, often discounted, available by the millions, and resellers are cleaning up now. Sometimes you just have to go against the grain and think outside the box.

[Brian Briggs]

16 hours ago, ED-209 said:

If that's the case I'm screwed. If PR retired I'll be f##ked. I have a grand total of one.

I hope PR won't retire this year. Right now I only have three copies of PR and could do with a 4th; none of them for resale, just for parts.

[Furious_george]

4 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I'll put the whole lot in a single listing assuming there's growth for say, £79.99 Buy It Now with automatic Best Offer enabled. I really can't be arsed to wait for an auction to end and the last time I did that, a set had 120 watcher and the price didn't rise. I think 99% of watchers are also resellers checking your sold prices before they undercut you. It's also surprising how many don't use the best offer. Since I got them fairly cheap, I should be able to compete OK. This set seems to be slagged off more than it should be so I doubt anybody else is close to the quantity I have which will be stopping at 251 (1 for me!). I remember people (including me) saying how butt ugly the Delorean was, often discounted, available by the millions, and resellers are cleaning up now. Sometimes you just have to go against the grain and think outside the box.

I fear that LEGO slapping "retiring soon" on this set may have wrecked any chance it had. 

[Infiltrator]

Lego's retirement policy is really strange. It reminds me of this - maybe Lego retires his sets truly like this?!

What set are we going to retire next? Oh... the chicken fell on the AT-AT 75054. "RETIRE IT" even after short shelf life and before the release of AoH... *LOL*

 

Edited October 18, 2016 by Infiltrator

[LegoBro]

Are there any sets that were widely hoarded and had a decent ROI based on demand, despite the huge supply after EOL? Just wondering.

[Val-E]

9 minutes ago, legoboy16 said:

Are there any sets that were widely hoarded and had a decent ROI based on demand, despite the huge supply after EOL? Just wondering.

In recent years 9493 x wing, de lorean, 60022 cargo plane, 7965 MF before the remake to name a few. Things started to go wrong big time last year and these got in under the wire.

Edited October 18, 2016 by Val-E

[Infiltrator]

8 minutes ago, legoboy16 said:

Are there any sets that were widely hoarded and had a decent ROI based on demand, despite the huge supply after EOL? Just wondering.

AT-AT 75054 - widely available and a nice ROI for example.

[zskid00]

I don't think we have any reliable data about true reseller inventory.  Brickpicker is probably as good as it gets but I wonder how many users keep their portfolios current.

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, zskid00 said:

I don't think we have any reliable data about true reseller inventory.  Brickpicker is probably as good as it gets but I wonder how many users keep their portfolios current.

Bricklink is the best publicly accessible at-a-glance guide to items for sale and sold but it´s a drop in the ocean compared to Amazon and Ebay. Still, the ratio of sales to listings is a useful tool.

 

[Furious_george]

2 hours ago, Foxhound said:

42041 (Racing Truck - official name? Who cares) and 75919 (Indominus Rex Breakout) are now C2C on LEGO Shop at Home.de.

I know what call to check says but what does it really mean? 

[Phil B]

It means: we are low on inventory and our online store sucks, so call us to place your order.

[Val-E]

7 minutes ago, Furious_george said:

I know what call to check says but what does it really mean? 

Call us so we can check you are a reseller and ban you.

[Furious_george]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

Call us so we can check you are a reseller and ban you.

Sold out again. That was quick.

[Brian Briggs]

9 hours ago, Furious_george said:

I fear that LEGO slapping "retiring soon" on this set may have wrecked any chance it had. 

Are there any other sets with a "retiring soon" label attached to them? Unless Doctor Who is the only set to be retired this year it seems strange to highlight just one set out of dozens.

[HandyHand]

51 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

Are there any other sets with a "retiring soon" label attached to them? Unless Doctor Who is the only set to be retired this year it seems strange to highlight just one set out of dozens.

It's still only October. The real "retiring soon" party starts only by late November, early December.   By then it will become more clear which sets were designated by TLG to officially retire by end of 2016. Some sets will get a retiring soon label when TLG for one reason or another decided that it should go but stock is still large enough that the label will generate additional demand to clear it out faster. Other sets will just quietly get their order limit reduced to 1, then go on Backorder, or even better suddenly go C2C. 

LEGO Shop at Home Europe is also quicker to label a set officially as retired, while LEGO Shop at Home USA will be more hesitant to label a set that way.  

[mudcatsfan]

4 hours ago, Brian Briggs said:

Are there any other sets with a "retiring soon" label attached to them? Unless Doctor Who is the only set to be retired this year it seems strange to highlight just one set out of dozens.

In the last few years, the "Retiring Soon" label has been seen on a few sets that we perceive to be dogs. 

It appears to be a ploy to try and clear out a set Lego may have too many of.

(I believe) we saw it with the Ideas Exo Suit and several others.

Does this mean the Doctor Who sets were over-produced, or underbought, or both? 

It will be interesting to find out.

[Voltron]

With the new batman sets coming next year looks like 76052 Batman™ Classic TV Series Batcave might be making an early retirement. 

In UK this apparently has been a complete fail. Kids don't want it as cannot relate to it, some AFOL'S love it as they grew up watching it, but it is not a cult classic. With poor sales and the new batcave / arkham Asylum this might go by December / January.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

30 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

With the new batman sets coming next year looks like 76052 Batman Classic TV Series Batcave might be making an early retirement. 

In UK this apparently has been a complete fail. Kids don't want it as cannot relate to it, some AFOL'S love it as they grew up watching it, but it is not a cult classic. With poor sales and the new batcave / arkham Asylum this might go by December / January.

Due to the vast range and regular rehash of these sets, I avoid the Super Heroes theme for investing.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

4 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

In the last few years, the "Retiring Soon" label has been seen on a few sets that we perceive to be dogs. 

It appears to be a ploy to try and clear out a set Lego may have too many of.

(I believe) we saw it with the Ideas Exo Suit and several others.

Does this mean the Doctor Who sets were over-produced, or underbought, or both? 

It will be interesting to find out.

There's a difference... Exo Suit wasn't a licensed theme so not many could really relate to it, Dr Who on the other hand...

If you turn the clock back a few years, the Delorean appeared to fill shelves everywhere and was also regularly discounted and it was a butt ugly car! But, people seem to love it more now than when it was available for £23.33. I think there's still as many Dr Who fans as there is BTTF fans so I have faith in this set. I feel the same with Ecto1 as the original movie is often the one that people remember. Hollywood-running-out-of-ideas-remakes just aren't for me!

[asharerin]

41 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

With the new batman sets coming next year looks like 76052 Batman Classic TV Series Batcave might be making an early retirement. 

In UK this apparently has been a complete fail. Kids don't want it as cannot relate to it, some AFOL'S love it as they grew up watching it, but it is not a cult classic. With poor sales and the new batcave / arkham Asylum this might go by December / January.

This is one set that will require the "Retiring Soon" tag to clear it out. Until then I am assuming it is sticking around for the usual 2 years. We should get wind of the next big D2C DC set prior to this one going.

[Fenix_2k1]

45 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

With the new batman sets coming next year looks like 76052 Batman Classic TV Series Batcave might be making an early retirement. 

In UK this apparently has been a complete fail. Kids don't want it as cannot relate to it, some AFOL'S love it as they grew up watching it, but it is not a cult classic. With poor sales and the new batcave / arkham Asylum this might go by December / January.

I think the problem with 76052 is it was a playset design aimed at AFOLs but AFOLs tend not to play with the set. It's the same problem as AoH. They just don't display well. Where Deathstar and EV worked as playsets and display models.

I picked up 76052 during the Smyths sale.  I built it and it was a nice build but it just doesn't look nice.  As such I've kept the Batmobile and I'm parting out the rest.

Edited October 19, 2016 by Fenix_2k1