Retiring Soon - open speculation

[CrabslayerT]

On 8/29/2016 at 11:35 PM, Mhd747 said:

So one set which hasn't had much talk is 75103 First Order Transporter. This set is now slowly disappearing from the shelves, and not for the good reason. Most of the seal codes I read where from 2015. The set is still available online in UK, but around me most toy shops are not stocking it anymore or only have 1/2 left

The vehicle was not iconic and didn't get much airtime in TFA, however the one good thing it has going for it is the exclusive Captain Phasma. This set could be a winner if, and it is a big IF Captain Phasma does not get refreshed in another set.

 

You might want to type Captain Phasma Mini Fig into good oul' GEEbay. 

 

On 8/29/2016 at 11:51 PM, Migration said:

If she's in episode viii she will get a refresh. 

Thought she got blown to f*** with the star killer base?!

[Bold-Arrow]

Pretty sure I read somewhere that phasma will be back with a bigger role :http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Star-Wars-Episode-8-Feature-Whole-Lot-More-One-Side-Character-101547.html

oh yeah, spoiler alert 

[jaylay]

Any opinions on series 1 speed champions? Which of the single packs and double packs will tend to see the best growth this Xmas and future?

[LJD1019]

is one of them a TRU exclusive? 

[Bold-Arrow]

1 minute ago, LJD1019 said:

is one of them a TRU exclusive? 

all are 

[Deanfjr]

16 hours ago, jaylay said:

Any opinions on series 1 speed champions? Which of the single packs and double packs will tend to see the best growth this Xmas and future?

I'm rolling with the 75910 & 75912 to be the winners out of speed champions,

Ferrari has been around Lego for some time, now it is time for Porsche to shine for Lego (already doing a fine job over on the technic side)

 

 

Edited August 30, 2016 by Deanfjr

[fossilrock]

On 5/6/2016 at 9:34 PM, fossilrock said:

Judging from what i've seen over the last few years (and thanks to my spreadsheets showing purchase dates, discounts, retirement dates etc through the years), i'm convinced the following Star Wars sets retire in late fall/early winter.  Reason is because many of these are either being clearanced at walmarts right now, or have the Lego LEGO Shop at Home sales.  I'm not following buildable figures, so i'm not speculating on those or microfighters, but i'd suspect those will get culled too.  I'm not speculating too deep on exclusives either because they are done to death, but i'd put my money on Sandcrawler and Ewok Village getting axed by december.

----------

Winter wave 2015 sets: All of them: ( Tie Advance Protype, Geonosis Troopers, Senate Commando Troopers, Imperial Troop Transport, Shadow Troopers, Battle Droid Troop Carrier (this may already be gone), Hailfire Droid )

Summer Wave 2015 Sets: All of them (Flash Speeder, Naboo Starfighter, Death Star Final Duel, Tydirium, Sith Infiltrator, Imperial Assault Carrier) - all of these are seeing 25% or more discounts lately.  Walmart seems to be trying to get rid of their stock ( a solid sign of their production runs ending well before the Rogue One sets hit the market ) 

Force Awakens Force Friday sets: FO Snowspeeder, FO Transporter, FO Special Forces Tie Fighter (I think their final production runs maybe nearing)

Winter Wave 2016 Sets: Resistance Troop Transporter, Battle on Takodana (the clearance of these sets right now is a solid sign.  Last year, a lot of the winter wave sets only had a year run too, while others did not.  I suspect the 3 of the 4 24.99 sets (Hoth Attack, Droid Escape, Obi Wan's Inteceptor, Carbon Freezing) will also carry on past this next year.  Or maybe all 4 do.

I'm not so sure about the following getting tagged this winter: Millennium Falcon, Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle, Poe's X-wing (I was convinced a while back, but i'm not so sure now since this never is clearanced), or any of the battle packs from this year.  I think some of those sets will stick around past the end of this year and may go well into all of next year.

 

Alright, so this was from earlier this year, and i'm still thinking most of my speculation is still in session.  Although,  I want to add that Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle is starting to look like it's about to go to the retirement home.  Amazon has been teetering on low stock lately.  My walmarts in my area are thinning with no major restock of this set, and Krennic's shuttle is coming, which I didn't know about last May.  It's too dang similar..

So, i'm tossing Kylo' Ship into the mix.  I also think Poe'x Black X-wing is heading out too.  But, they don't have to discount that one as much since it's perhaps the biggest seller of the entire FA theme (which leads me to believe it will make an excellent investment).

So to conclude, i'm thinking the Millennium Falcon will stick around as the only set from the 2015 Star Wars sets, other than the UCS Slave 1 and Tie Fighter.  It recently appeared in the Fall magazine, and was the only set from 2015 still standing in that magazine.  I was reviewing my sons previous magazines from the past years and when other sets from those yearas were absent during the fall catalogue, they did tend to go into retirement by winters end. 

[GiliusThunderhead]

Someone's definitely posted this before but I've lost it so wondering if anyone can help out re the "major" retirees (thinking modular/D2C/UCS style) from the last few years in terms of numbers.

Given the increased production capacity & TLG expanding into new markets I'm getting less and less confident with my "ability" to predict the retirees.
Using a new method called "number of sets out there" I only see one larger SW set going at the end of this year.

And given I've often seen EV above SC in the sales ranks I'm thinking SC is the one to go early in the new year.

[Legojona]

Interesting. You forgot to pull the 10188 out of retirement

I think the 10236 Ewok Village is most likely to retire as well. The 75059 SC also seems like a likely option.

[Leander]

Does "number of sets out there" mean "number of days with set out there"? Judging from the graph it checks out.
With an increased production capability the number of days wouldn't have to increase would it? There would be more sets produced in the same time, if people grab them. With an additionally expanding market these would be distributed accordingly. 
However I would also believe that production capabilities can lead to a longer run for everything. But then again we also see more different things out at the same time year by year.
This graph is cool thanks alot it really helps! The release date for older sets is easy to research but an overview of release and retirement is very helpful.

[Emvisawthatswho]

Someone's definitely posted this before but I've lost it so wondering if anyone can help out re the "major" retirees (thinking modular/D2C/UCS style) from the last few years in terms of numbers.

Given the increased production capacity & TLG expanding into new markets I'm getting less and less confident with my "ability" to predict the retirees.
Using a new method called "number of sets out there" I only see one larger SW set going at the end of this year.

And given I've often seen EV above SC in the sales ranks I'm thinking SC is the one to go early in the new year.

Average lifespan of 1,075 days. Yes the DS skews it a bit at 2,725 days. But EV is ready and SC not far.

[thelegollama]

I wonder if modulars will skyrocket once the series is discontinued.  I predict that there will be only a couple more modulars in the next couple of years.  How many more buildings are there for a "downtown street" out there?

[Furious_george]

2 minutes ago, thelegollama said:

I wonder if modulars will skyrocket once the series is discontinued.  I predict that there will be only a couple more modulars in the next couple of years.  How many more buildings are there for a "downtown street" out there?

Brothel?

[thelegollama]

I guess they could have a pharmacy with a soda bar.  Maybe an octan headquaters building?

[Deadfraggle]

13 minutes ago, thelegollama said:

I wonder if modulars will skyrocket once the series is discontinued.  I predict that there will be only a couple more modulars in the next couple of years.  How many more buildings are there for a "downtown street" out there?

There's probably a couple dozen different buildings they could offer. The series might end in a few more years due to declining popularity, but it won't be due to lack of possible models. There are literally hundreds of different modular style buildings MOCs out there for example. 

To names a few: pizza shop, old school diner/ice cream parlor, clothing store/tailor/dress shop, pharmacy, hospital, bakery, flower shop, bike store, deli, library, train station, gas station/quick shop, police station.

[Dark Helmet]

13 minutes ago, thelegollama said:

I wonder if modulars will skyrocket once the series is discontinued.  I predict that there will be only a couple more modulars in the next couple of years.  How many more buildings are there for a "downtown street" out there?

that is the funniest thing I heard all day..  LEGO stop one of their biggest money makers? don't you worry they will just remake GG, CC, or TH and say its to give their newest builders a chance to build a great classic set... BS

[tacsniper]

42 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

that is the funniest thing I heard all day..  LEGO stop one of their biggest money makers? don't you worry they will just remake GG, CC, or TH and say its to give their newest builders a chance to build a great classic set... BS

with the remake of winter toy shop and death star. Seasonal sets like Trick or Treat coming out of retirement, why do i find the possibility of GG, CC or TH not surprising anymore?

[Legojona]

Did the Trevi Fountain retire? I can still see it in lego@home, but it is harder to find. I think it is one of the most eye-catching sets with a low price per piece and a likely candidate for retirement.

[dcdfan]

9 minutes ago, Legojona said:

Did the Trevi Fountain retire? I can still see it in lego@home, but it is harder to find. I think it is one of the most eye-catching sets with a low price per piece and a likely candidate for retirement.

Since the new Lego site update Brickset appears to not report accurate data. Almost everything (I haven't checked all) appear incorrect. About a week or two ago, I mentioned those are not retired dates. Those are last available for purchase from LEGO Shop at Home but still not accurate now in any case.

Edited September 11, 2016 by dcdfan

[Brian Briggs]

17 hours ago, Deadfraggle said:

There's probably a couple dozen different buildings they could offer. The series might end in a few more years due to declining popularity, but it won't be due to lack of possible models. There are literally hundreds of different modular style buildings MOCs out there for example. 

To names a few: pizza shop, old school diner/ice cream parlor, clothing store/tailor/dress shop, pharmacy, hospital, bakery, flower shop, bike store, deli, library, train station, gas station/quick shop, police station.

Don't forget cheese shops (this one's awesome):

[Will 4]

On 10/09/2016 at 2:44 PM, Legojona said:

Interesting. You forgot to pull the 10188 out of retirement

It never did retire.

[cladner]

i have no idea why anyone would think modulars are declining in  popularity.

from brickset:

Pet Shop - owned by 15,015 wanted by 4722

GE - owned by 13269, wanted by5669

Fire Brigade - owned by 11600, wanted by 5826

Palace Cinema - owned by 13089, wanted by 4667

 

Take a popular in demand star wars set doing well in the aftermarket  -

at at 75054 - owned by 6909, wanted by 4160

or not so well - 10188 - owned by 9722 wanted by 6976

Or how about a long lived creator expert set hoarded by many

Tower Bridge - owned by 7629, wanted by 3702

I can't find any sets that are owned by more than 10000 people that aren't modulars.

By my reckoning, Pet Shop is THE most popular LEGO set ever produced  (15K have it, almost 5K want it) which says something about its intrinsic popularity and demand  which is why I'm comfortable having 30 to help all the dark aged folk who don't know what they are currently missing.

Seems to me the modular buildings are the most popular sets by a long shot.

IMO, they are never going to retire this extremely lucarative theme.

 

Edited September 11, 2016 by cladner

[Voltron]

Brickset numbers can be misleading.13000 people owning a modular sounds like alot, but the majority of parents that buy sets for their kids or as parents don't use brickset e.g. 60047: Police Station is the current police station set from the city range, lego has frequently stated that the city set and in particular police station is extremely popular, yet this set which released start of 2014 only has the following brickset numbers:

3125 own this set, 1645 want it

[cladner]

20 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

Brickset numbers can be misleading.13000 people owning a modular sounds like alot, but the majority of parents that buy sets for their kids or as parents don't use brickset e.g. 60047: Police Station is the current police station set from the city range, lego has frequently stated that the city set and in particular police station is extremely popular, yet this set which released start of 2014 only has the following brickset numbers:

3125 own this set, 1645 want it

ok  - if you say so.  if 15000 people took the time to say they have Pet Shop on their list and another 4700 add it to their want list and almost nobody cares enough about a City Police Station remake to add it to their list that tells you that the Police Station set is rubbish.  i certainly don't believe a thing that TLG says about what sets are popular.  

Edited September 11, 2016 by cladner

[Voltron]

I wasn't saying it is a good investment set, it isn't as it will get remade, I'm just stating that from a owned/wanted numbers perspective sometimes brickset isn't all that accurate