Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Out of the Dark Years]

2 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

it seems like it would make more sense for them to can both Simpsons sets.

Agreed, I'm surprised they are still available. They didnt seem overly popular here, the only exception was when they first arrived in our country they flew off the shelves.

[fossilrock]

I think for sure we will see one creator car retire - my guess is t1, Tower Bridge looks more and more done as the weeks go by, and I think we all expect Pet Shop to be finished. 

That's 3 sets i'm sure will be gone.

Then I suspect 4 or 5 more.  I think both Simpsons sets are going, that would then leave 1 star wars set - either Tie or Sandcrawler.  After the Death Star fiasco, I'm steering clear of Ewok Village.  It may retire, but if it did, I wouldn't be shocked if they bring it back in a few years and just update the minis.   I don't want stuck with those, and will just stick with the one in my sons collection.  Then I'd suspect something like Temple of Airjitsu, Santas workshop or Fairground Mixer.. Although, maybe none of those will go away.  Maybe they'll also want 5 winter village sets out too at any given time.  Not that Santas Workshop will even be a worthy investment at this point due to the hoarding of that set.  

Either way, other than the Sandcrawler nothing looks like a worthy investment, IMO.  And if Sandcrawler doesn't go away this year, then I'd have less enthusiasm for it as an investment heading into next year, since more people will hoard it in higher numbers. 

[Val-E]

Nope, it will be SOH and Mini. The others are top sellers, no brainer to keep them going. Lepin have all four of them covered, just in case.

Edited August 20, 2016 by Val-E

[fossilrock]

1 minute ago, Val-E said:

Nope, it will be SOH and Mini. The others are top sellers, no brainer to keep them going. Lepin have all four of them covered, just in case.

Signs aren't pointing to SOH because it's available everywhere while Tower Bridge is getting thinner in many places.  Same with the Mini Cooper.  T1 on the otherhand is only available at Lego LEGO Shop at Home here in the states.  it's gone everywhere else.  It's gone.  It's doing the jig.

[emazers]

The Simpsons sets are both done 100% done, and the 10243 PR is not Retiring, The Simpsons are not on the 2017 Wholesale Catalog, but the 10243 is.

Edited August 20, 2016 by emazers

[Ciglione]

1 minute ago, fossilrock said:

Signs aren't pointing to SOH because it's available everywhere while Tower Bridge is getting thinner in many places.  Same with the Mini Cooper.  T1 on the otherhand is only available at Lego LEGO Shop at Home here in the states.  it's gone everywhere else.  It's gone.  It's doing the jig.

And next year (end of 2017) there will be a new improved T1.

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Signs aren't pointing to SOH because it's available everywhere while Tower Bridge is getting thinner in many places.  Same with the Mini Cooper.  T1 on the otherhand is only available at Lego LEGO Shop at Home here in the states.  it's gone everywhere else.  It's gone.  It's doing the jig.

That´s because they are selling better! No way does TB go before SOH.

[fossilrock]

17 minutes ago, Val-E said:

That´s because they are selling better! No way does TB go before SOH.

Tower Bridge is actually the oldest set.  Big Ben just came out and it's in the same city  It's not because it's selling better, but because the stock is slowly dwindling.  Regardless, the set should have retired last year.  It's not like I expect it to be a great investment, anyway. 

23 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

And next year (end of 2017) there will be a new improved T1.

But they'll take out the red bricks and make them blue, and change the name of the set number and then market it as a "new improved version".  Ahh boy....

[Laudrup16]

On 8/17/2016 at 11:10 PM, biking_tiger said:

Or someone let info from the wholesale order form slip...?

I dunno, possible, right? 

Again...SOH will retire before TB as the latter will be left in shelves to live together with its new brother BB, with synergies all over the place.

TB will be milked until end of 2017.

TLG made clear before that being the oldest set does not mean it will retire first.

[fossilrock]

2 minutes ago, Laudrup16 said:

Again...SOH will retire before TB as the latter will be left in shelves to live together with its new brother BB, with synergies all over the place.

TB will be milked until end of 2017.

TLG made clear before that being the oldest set does not mean it will retire first.

While there maybe times they don't retire the oldest set, this logic makes no sense.  There are millions of lego fans outside of London.

[Val-E]

Age means nothing any more. If it sells well, it stays. Probably the only old 2011 sets to go will be PS and White House.

[Chen_ah_siao]

 

Retiring Soon = Many "veteran" Lego Investors

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, Chen_ah_siao said:

 

Retiring Soon = Many "veteran" Lego Investors

Post of the day.

[cubfan78]

I would be surprised to see any modulars retired, I imagine they are all probably in Lego's top 25 best sellers. I know somewhere there was data that showed what their top 25 best sellers are but I can't seem to find it. 

I don't see any correlation between age of sets and retirement. If a set is selling well then why retire it? 

I would also venture a guess that the number of new Lego customers (new AFOLs) is growing at higher rate than in the previous years and that these new customers are buying Modulars, SW, and other Exclusives. This could be why TLG is reluctant to retire any modulars and possibly why they decided to just do a refresh of 10188 and not a complete redesign. 

[Val-E]

Just now, cubfan78 said:

I would be surprised to see any modulars retired, I imagine they are all probably in Lego's top 25 best sellers. I know somewhere there was data that showed what their top 25 best sellers are but I can't seem to find it. 

I don't see any correlation between age of sets and retirement. If a set is selling well then why retire it? 

I would also venture a guess that the number of new Lego customers (new AFOLs) is growing at higher rate than in the previous years and that these new customers are buying Modulars, SW, and other Exclusives. This could be why TLG is reluctant to retire any modulars and possibly why they decided to just do a refresh of 10188 and not a complete redesign. 

The top 25 per country can be seen on every worldwide SAH page by clicking on the landing page under Top seller (see all top sellers).

http://shop.lego.com/en-DE/Top-Sellers

 

[fossilrock]

They are going to have to retire some of the old stuff, to make new sets seem more desirable. They just can't keep all the exclusives running, and then serve up rehashed sets.  That will drop interest faster than anything.  Fresh ideas will drive Lego into the future.  The more stale ideas they serve up, well, like when the Fonze jumped the shark, it's the telltale sign that innovation and new ideas are wearing thin, and things are about to go south. 

[fossilrock]

8 minutes ago, Val-E said:

The top 25 per country can be seen on every worldwide SAH page by clicking on the landing page under Top seller (see all top sellers).

http://shop.lego.com/en-DE/Top-Sellers

 

I'm not surprised that VW sets are selling well in Germany, but here in the States the T1 is not on the top 25.  Neither is Tower Bridge, and I hate to say it, but we are the Lego groups biggest and most insatiable market at the moment.  They need to retire TB and come out with a Creator Empire State Building or something like that.  It's evident their best sellers are the newer models.  Brick Bank is in the top 25 while the other modulars are not.  This proves that over time the older models get less and less popular.

In England and Ireland, the Mini Cooper is in the top 25, while in most other countries it's not.  

Edited August 20, 2016 by fossilrock

[Val-E]

5 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I'm not surprised that VW sets are selling well in Germany, but here in the States the T1 is not on the top 25.  Neither is Tower Bridge, and I hate to say it, but we are the Lego groups biggest and most insatiable market at the moment.  They need to retire TB and come out with a Creator Empire State Building or something like that.  It's evident their best sellers are the newer models.  Brick Bank is in the top 25 while the other modulars are not.  This proves that over time the older models get less and less popular.

TB and T1 made all the lists a few weeks back riding on the high of Big Ben and Beetle. Mini and SOH have been MIA for a while and let´s not even speak about Batcave, AOH or Airjitzu. The last 3 should have really been up there since they were SAH exclusives - the others can be had everywhere, often for a better price. That should be worrying. Perhaps Lepin will retire their ToA soon!

[fossilrock]

I do agree Batcave, AOH and Airjitzu seem like duds compared to the Creator line vehicles and large building sets.  In fact, it's rare to even see Star Wars sets in the top 25.  New Zealand had the Slave 1 in their top 25, but most other countries they don't even show up. 

I think that's evident across the globe as I look at the top 25 sales per country that the creator cars line is the most popular large scale exclusive theme..   Brick Bank shows up in many countries, but that's about the only modular you see multiple times.  Ocassionally I saw Detectives Office pop in.  But I didn't see Pet Shop, Palace Cinema or PR.

So, maybe we won't see t1 go.. but the Mini Cooper and Ferrari also show up in many many countries, so those are also pretty big, especially in Europe.  And of course, the Bug is the #1 seller almost globally.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Airjitzu retired this year.  And it wouldn't be a stretch to see AOH or even the Tie Fighter go away within the next two years.

Edited August 20, 2016 by fossilrock

[Laudrup16]

1 hour ago, Laudrup16 said:

Again...SOH will retire before TB as the latter will be left in shelves to live together with its new brother BB, with synergies all over the place.

TB will be milked until end of 2017.

TLG made clear before that being the oldest set does not mean it will retire first.

Furthermore, the soonest a set is rumoured/expected to get retired, hoard increases sell figures and TLG decides to keep it alive given it's performing well lately again.

It's a vicious circle.

Look how many SOH are for sale and compare its figure with TB's.

I have no doubts at all

[Val-E]

TRU here retired SOH in Feb with a 40% discount. We all know how much they like to cut their prices so I am sticking with that over TB.

Edited August 20, 2016 by Val-E

[harrismiles]

I agree that the top 25 sets in the US are the new ones

it's time to 86 some old ones

hopefolly TB And SOH by early next year and come out with a new one

by to T1

hopefully Ewok and SC to make room for a GOOD saw set it TWO

by Simpsons and SW

heck retire both PS and PC and release another new one

 

throw in the helicarrier

wishful thinking 

86 em

 

[Voltron]

SOH has been going sold out alot in UK, my local lego store removed them from the shelves a while back.

 

However I went instore 2 weeks ago and they had a fresh run of SOH, I believe seal codes were 20S6 

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

SOH has been going sold out alot in UK, my local lego store removed them from the shelves a while back.

 

However I went instore 2 weeks ago and they had a fresh run of SOH, I believe seal codes were 20S6 

Still the old box, right?

[Voltron]

Just now, Val-E said:

Still the old box, right?

There's a new box?