Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Val-E]

SOH will have been out for exactly 3 years next month. What´s the source for a new modular in January?

[Brian Briggs]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

What´s the source for a new modular in January?

I'd say the only source so far is common sense.

[dcdfan]

SOH will have been out for exactly 3 years next month. What´s the source for a new modular in January?

Where will all those "clumsy" guys, new babies and people in wheelchairs go for a checkup?

[JM123]

I think there will be some surprise retirements in the fall. Personally, I really think that the Temple of Airjitzu will be one of them due to bad sales and probably high production complexity.

I remember something that despite bad sales, TLG retired the Town Hall due to production problems with this set?

[fossilrock]

4 hours ago, Loghamel said:

I believe Sandcrawler should move up and sit next to the Pet Shop on your list.  

I used to think that way, but not anymore.  The Sandcrawler, along with Slave 1 has had a lot more recent runs than the Tie.

4 hours ago, Legojona said:

Perhaps and I would also put the Sydney opera House in the top category.

I'm going to stick with Tower Bridge.  Very simple reason actually - the Lego Stock checker is showing it going out of stock in more stores than the SOH.  It's going.  The Big Ben is the new big set from famous London icons.  It's also older than the Syndey Opera House.

[fossilrock]

1 hour ago, mesje said:

 

• 50% - Palace Cinema (too many modulars are on shelves - 6 with new one coming on January, so logic says that at least 2 should retired, otherwise TLG doesnt know cannibalism),

I don't think having 5 modulars out cannibalize each other.  Instead, it spurs people to try and buy all 5, or at least try and get there, and then all the sudden a new one pops out.   So, if anything it gives people choices.  

[tacsniper]

36 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I don't think having 5 modulars out cannibalize each other.  Instead, it spurs people to try and buy all 5, or at least try and get there, and then all the sudden a new one pops out.   So, if anything it gives people choices.  

Exactly! Lego inspired new builders into one, next thing you know they want more and will time their purchase to buy all thats accessible in retail stores. Then next thing you know they are looking on eBay/Amazon for the older ones  .

Edited August 8, 2016 by tacsniper

[biking_tiger]

34 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I don't think having 5 modulars out cannibalize each other.  Instead, it spurs people to try and buy all 5, or at least try and get there, and then all the sudden a new one pops out.   So, if anything it gives people choices.  

Retail cannibalism is a real thing and can diminish the brand. If more modulars = higher revenue for Lego, than by all means... but longer product lifespans and too many products on the shelf can dilute the brand. There's a reason Lego has traditionally used terminology like "retiring soon" and "retired product." Those terms drive the desirability of their products and create a sense of limit and urgency (buy it now!). 

My worry is Lego has started to rehash so many lines too frequently and will have the same effect as too many products on the shelf at one time. Where's the urgency for buyers? Brand diminishes... and so do sales. Lego cannot continue with such growth and expansion forever.*

*I'm looking at you, Chinese economy.

Edited August 8, 2016 by biking_tiger

[fantomas007]

54 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I don't think having 5 modulars out cannibalize each other.  Instead, it spurs people to try and buy all 5, or at least try and get there, and then all the sudden a new one pops out.   So, if anything it gives people choices.  

Collectors is buying all modulars - and most of them have PS already... But there are many people, who wants to spend just limited amount of money in lego, and when they see 30 nice exclusive sets on shelves, logically must prefer some of them and not buy all - if they see 5 houses, they will take one - most beautiful for them and ignore the rest. It is a cannibalism. If they see just 3, they would choose 1 from 3...

[lostontheverglow]

2 hours ago, biking_tiger said:

Retail cannibalism is a real thing and can diminish the brand. If more modulars = higher revenue for Lego, than by all means... but longer product lifespans and too many products on the shelf can dilute the brand. There's a reason Lego has traditionally used terminology like "retiring soon" and "retired product." Those terms drive the desirability of their products and create a sense of limit and urgency (buy it now!). 

My worry is Lego has started to rehash so many lines too frequently and will have the same effect as too many products on the shelf at one time. Where's the urgency for buyers? Brand diminishes... and so do sales. Lego cannot continue with such growth and expansion forever.*

*I'm looking at you, Chinese economy.

Retail cannibalism, and I think another thing at play here is consumer hyperchoice. In marketing, it just means that there are too many choices, you can't decide, and you leave.

Have you ever walked down an aisle thinking, "hm, maybe I'll get some cereal this week." You are overwhelmed by not only the number of brands, but the number of subsets within each brand. "Eh, I'll just pass."

I've definitely had the feeling walking into any Lego store. Sometimes, it's just too much to take in. "Wow, so this is a modular? Oh wait, what's this. This is also a..modular? What are modulars? Wait, why are there 3..no 4, wait 5 modulars? Wait, so there are other Lego lines as well? How many different lines are there?"

I think this has a more noticeable effect on newcomers, but I'm sure everyone has had a feeling like this before.

[gregpj]

6 hours ago, Val-E said:

Tie playsets have not performed well (compared to X wing) and the current one looks to be no different. The UCS one should do OK if it does not have a 3 year life as it will pair with 10240 but it´s definitely a set to buy at a healthy discount and as late as one dares.

Again, that's always a matter of perspective...

X-Wing 9493 - MSRP $59.99, going rate $129.20 - 2.15x retail
Tie 9492 - MSRP $54.99, going rate $93.27 - 1.7x retail

If I remember correctly, the Tie fighters were more frequently found at a discount and in clearance bins... but even at retail, I wouldn't say it's terrible given they haven't been gone long and have had some pretty direct competition with the Force Awakens sets.
 

[c_rpg]

27 minutes ago, lostontheverglow said:

Retail cannibalism, and I think another thing at play here is consumer hyperchoice. In marketing, it just means that there are too many choices, you can't decide, and you leave.

Have you ever walked down an aisle thinking, "hm, maybe I'll get some cereal this week." You are overwhelmed by not only the number of brands, but the number of subsets within each brand. "Eh, I'll just pass."

I've definitely had the feeling walking into any Lego store. Sometimes, it's just too much to take in. "Wow, so this is a modular? Oh wait, what's this. This is also a..modular? What are modulars? Wait, why are there 3..no 4, wait 5 modulars? Wait, so there are other Lego lines as well? How many different lines are there?"

I think this has a more noticeable effect on newcomers, but I'm sure everyone has had a feeling like this before.

I think what you are describing is not so much of an issue with things like Lego. All the themes are different and within one theme you have multiple choices, but they are all clearly different sets.

Hyperchoice is more of an issue when you have multiple choices of almost exactly the same product. A good example is TV's at an electronics store. Each one has almost exactly the same function and looks very similar. In this case the consumer has to try to figure out what the differences are and what TV is the best choice. It all becomes a lot more work, so some people tend to get overwhelmed.

I think the Lego sets are different enough that this is not an issue, but maybe I'm wrong and some people still get overwhelmed.

[fossilrock]

Agree with the poster above.  The modular buildings are fairly different from one another so its good having the choices.  Plus, having 5 buildings available at a time allows for people to build a semi-respectable street at retail, which I think is a good sales pitch if you were to start into this theme. If there were just two available, that's just not a lot of choices or options.  As long as the buildings are different and variable from one another, I don't think having 5 avaiable at anyone time will make them cannibalize one another.

I'm just speaking on my own behalf here, but last year we were strictly into mostly Star Wars, Architecture, and LOTR.  Then we went to a lego store, and my wife insisted we start a street, so I caved in and bought a pet shop and after we built it, I realized that the theme was pretty awesome.  So we've went and accumulated palace cinema, then Parisian restaurant, and just picked up a detectives office over 2xVIP.  If all those sets weren't available, I doubt id have bought 4 in less than a year.  By the end of the year, we'll probably up that to 5.  We also are planning on adding fire brigade, and GE to our collection.  If we come across town hall, and can bricklink GG or Cafe Corner, we may do that too.  But, I liked the fact that the options were available for me to pick up a handful of sets. My opinion.

[Laudrup16]

6 hours ago, mesje said:

My list

 

• 80% - Ewok Village (3 years out, classic period for UCS, + another playset is here - AoH),

 

bear in mind Ewok Village is not UCS, but just Exclusive. 

Having said that I expect it to retire in Autumn and become a great playset performer.

 

[dcdfan]

How long have 10236 and 75095 been at LEGO Shop at Home limit 1? They can both retire, now, I won't mind.

[Brickerbrack]

Hmmm Amazon has Limit 1 on both. 

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, gregpj said:

Again, that's always a matter of perspective...

X-Wing 9493 - MSRP $59.99, going rate $129.20 - 2.15x retail
Tie 9492 - MSRP $54.99, going rate $93.27 - 1.7x retail

If I remember correctly, the Tie fighters were more frequently found at a discount and in clearance bins... but even at retail, I wouldn't say it's terrible given they haven't been gone long and have had some pretty direct competition with the Force Awakens sets.
 

9492 had a 6 month head start in terms of EOL so the gap is wider and will continue widening with other similar Ties available for RRP. It´s also much easier to shift Xwings.

[landphieran]

1 hour ago, dcdfan said:

How long have 10236 and 75095 been at LEGO Shop at Home limit 1? They can both retire, now, I won't mind.

79095 has been limit 1 at both Amazon, Walmart for a couple weeks now.

[dcdfan]

79095 has been limit 1 at both Amazon, Walmart for a couple weeks now.

Walmart wasn't limit 1 four days ago.

[landphieran]

7 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

Walmart wasn't limit 1 four days ago.

Sorry I may have been mistaken, Raptor Rampage was order limit 1 with my order on July 30th. Assumed both were limited one but i may be wrong. 



 

[gregpj]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

9492 had a 6 month head start in terms of EOL so the gap is wider and will continue widening with other similar Ties available for RRP. It´s also much easier to shift Xwings.

I realize that, I was simply stating that despite the gap at MSRP, my recollection is that the Tie had greater discounts... and we all know that buy-in is king when deciding what price to sell at (demand be damned, we always hear about my goal is 2x or 3x buy-in).

Frankly, I also think that Poe's X-Wing increased demand for the original X-Wing and the Resistance Tie decreased demand.

We've recently started collecting some star wars sets after I finally convinced my partner to watch all 7 movies with me and the boys. Now that we all want to round out parts of our LEGO Star Wars collection (like yesterday, after we watched A New Hope, she said "How come we don't have a Luke minifugure as an x-wing pilot?") we've been looking at some sets. The new Vader's Tie Advanced vs A-Wing will surely end up in our collection but given the similarity of the TFA Tie and the original Tie, I can't see going back to get the original one. I can however see going and getting an original X-Wing since it's so different from Poe's and the resistance.

Just MHO.

[GiliusThunderhead]

What i don't understand is where TLG is getting all the capacity to keep all these sets in stock.  Last time i heard there new factories were still some years off.  Whoever the bod is who improved the efficiency thus allowing them to keep more sets round longer my hat off to them.

EV now clearly takes the crown as second longest available SW set at retail.   Maybe "playsets" are something they keep around longer because the direct competition for these is smaller.  My 2 cents is still on EV going this year - pure speculation on my part.  No evidence to back it up other than at the end of this month its been around 3 years.

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, GiliusThunderhead said:

What i don't understand is where TLG is getting all the capacity to keep all these sets in stock.  Last time i heard there new factories were still some years off.  Whoever the bod is who improved the efficiency thus allowing them to keep more sets round longer my hat off to them.

 

Wait till The Company That Shall Not Be Named gets up to speed cloning the entire back catalogue, current models and future releases! It will be like Napster for bricks.

[asharerin]

8 minutes ago, GiliusThunderhead said:

What i don't understand is where TLG is getting all the capacity to keep all these sets in stock.

They don't have the capacity. Hence sets constantly in and out of stock, stock held back, stock put on temporary hiatus etc.

A few years ago you could use out of stock notices as clues to what may be retiring. Nowdays it is meaningless. If I had a dollar for everytime a newbie referred to the "dance" as proof of something retiring only to have it hang around for a few more years I wouldn't need to resell lego to supplement my income.

[Mos_Eisley]

5 minutes ago, asharerin said:

They don't have the capacity. Hence sets constantly in and out of stock, stock held back, stock put on temporary hiatus etc.

A few years ago you could use out of stock notices as clues to what may be retiring. Nowdays it is meaningless. If I had a dollar for everytime a newbie referred to the "dance" as proof of something retiring only to have it hang around for a few more years I wouldn't need to resell lego to supplement my income.

I don't think it's just newbies who like to hype "the dance".