Retiring Soon - open speculation

[glucapg]

And now? Very useful post

[Guest brickcrazyhouse]

2 hours ago, Scatterbug said:

You're speaking with an air of certainty - why?

brick-u is the lego spy

[Lordoflego]

Gurus, spies and well wishers, and I still know nothing 

[BrickU]

2 hours ago, Scatterbug said:

You're speaking with an air of certainty - why?

Why not.  This is the retirement speculation page correct?

[Deadfraggle]

34 minutes ago, BrickU said:

Why not.  This is the retirement speculation page correct?

It sure is. No one is questioning your prediction/speculation of a pending set retirement. I think people are more interested in your statement "every few years LEGO does a massive wipeout of sets and moves in a new direction"

 

[trekgate502]

3 minutes ago, Deadfraggle said:

It sure is. No one is questioning your prediction/speculation of a pending set retirement. I think people are more interested in your statement "every few years LEGO does a massive wipeout of sets and moves in a new direction"

 

It's true all of it ..... Han Solo

[fossilrock]

On July 19, 2016 at 2:18 PM, zskid00 said:

There were a lot of Star Wars sets that disappeared last fall/winter that were out only 12-16 months, even some you would have expected to hang around longer such as the AT-AT, ISD, Cantina, and MTT.

Last years clearance events were telling too.  I think it's evident, at least to me, that most of the Force Awakens sets are going off into the sunset.  They already clearanced the FO transporters, and now they have clearance on a lot of the others from the first wave. I'd be shocked if all of those are around into next year.  The only set, I think I haven't heard on clearance is Rey's speederbike.

[trekgate502]

Talk to the Falcon

[c_rpg]

9 hours ago, fossilrock said:

Last years clearance events were telling too.  I think it's evident, at least to me, that most of the Force Awakens sets are going off into the sunset.  They already clearanced the FO transporters, and now they have clearance on a lot of the others from the first wave. I'd be shocked if all of those are around into next year.  The only set, I think I haven't heard on clearance is Rey's speederbike.

It's difficult to say what they will retire. On the one hand it makes sense to retire sets from the previous movie and replace them with sets from the new movie, but on the other hand there are a lot of non-FA sets that seem likely to retire soon as well. There is just a lot of stuff available in general, so I think we can try to guess what's going to retire by looking at poor sellers and sets that are similar to upcoming/newer sets.

Here are the sets that were released before 2016 and are currently available (excluding UCS, battle packs, polybags and buildable figures):

Prequels:

• 75086-1: Battle Droid Troop Carrier
• 75085-1: Hailfire Droid
• 75092-1: Naboo Starfighter
• 75091-1: Flash Speeder -> poor seller, likely to go
• 75096-1: Sith Infiltrator

OT:

• 75094-1: Imperial Shuttle Tydirium -> on discount a lot, to be replaced by new movie shuttle?
• 75093-1: Death Star Final Duel

Force Awakens:

• 75103-1: First Order Transporter
• 75105-1: Millennium Falcon -> top seller, not likely to go imo
• 75104-1: Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle
• 75101-1: First Order Special Forces TIE Fighter -> to be replaced by new movie TIE?
• 75102-1: Poe's X-wing Fighter -> pretty much replaced by new X-Wing
• 75100-1: First Order Snowspeeder -> not well received by fans, likely to go

Rebels:

• 75082-1: TIE Advanced Prototype
• 75106-1: Imperial Assault Carrier -> to be replaced by 75158-1: Rebel Combat Frigate? on clearance a lot

Other:

• 75087-1: Anakin's Custom Jedi Starfighter -> surprisingly I have seen this one in the top sellers before

It is surprising to me how much prequel stuff is still available (specifically Episode 1).

I don't know about the US, but Rey's Speeder has been on sale for a loooong time on amazon.co.uk.

[biking_tiger]

16 minutes ago, c_rpg said:

It's difficult to say what they will retire. On the one hand it makes sense to retire sets from the previous movie and replace them with sets from the new movie, but on the other hand there are a lot of non-FA sets that seem likely to retire soon as well. There is just a lot of stuff available in general, so I think we can try to guess what's going to retire by looking at poor sellers and sets that are similar to upcoming/newer sets.

Here are the sets that were released before 2016 and are currently available (excluding UCS, battle packs, polybags and buildable figures):

Prequels:

• 75086-1: Battle Droid Troop Carrier
• 75085-1: Hailfire Droid
• 75092-1: Naboo Starfighter
• 75091-1: Flash Speeder -> poor seller, likely to go
• 75096-1: Sith Infiltrator

OT:

• 75094-1: Imperial Shuttle Tydirium -> on discount a lot, to be replaced by new movie shuttle?
• 75093-1: Death Star Final Duel

Force Awakens:

• 75103-1: First Order Transporter
• 75105-1: Millennium Falcon -> top seller, not likely to go imo
• 75104-1: Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle
• 75101-1: First Order Special Forces TIE Fighter -> to be replaced by new movie TIE?
• 75102-1: Poe's X-wing Fighter -> pretty much replaced by new X-Wing
• 75100-1: First Order Snowspeeder -> not well received by fans, likely to go

Rebels:

• 75082-1: TIE Advanced Prototype
• 75106-1: Imperial Assault Carrier -> to be replaced by 75158-1: Rebel Combat Frigate? on clearance a lot

Other:

• 75087-1: Anakin's Custom Jedi Starfighter -> surprisingly I have seen this one in the top sellers before

It is surprising to me how much prequel stuff is still available (specifically Episode 1).

I don't know about the US, but Rey's Speeder has been on sale for a loooong time on amazon.co.uk.

All the Stormtrooper boxes are gone (the tan one's with a Rebels Stormtrooper in the upper right corner) this fall. I have no doubt there. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of the Force Awakens sets gone as well, at least last fall's Force Friday releases. 

[fossilrock]

1 hour ago, biking_tiger said:

All the Stormtrooper boxes are gone (the tan one's with a Rebels Stormtrooper in the upper right corner) this fall. I have no doubt there. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of the Force Awakens sets gone as well, at least last fall's Force Friday releases. 

Although, MF's, Poe's X-wing, and Rey's speederbike aren't getting hit hard with clearnace nation wide, so I do wonder if some of those may not be on the radar for the end of the year retirement phase. 

The Millennium Falcon remains the oddball, because in May 2017 (if that movie still is put there as planned), the Han Solo movie is due out, and one would expect that the MF will have to be in that movie, because he's just got to do the Kessel Run in 12 parsecs.  Poe's Black x-wing should retire, just because there are two currently out there.  Rey's speederbike, well thats an unknown. 

But, the FO Transporter, Snowspeeder, Tie-fighter, and Kylo's ships have seen clearance nation-wide, also a few of the sets from the 2016 winter wave like Leia's Resistance Transporter, as well as Battle of Takodana have also seen clerance events (although, BOT has returned in mass at the stores around me, so makes me wonder why they were clearanced in the first place).  The 2015 stormtrooper sets have also seen clearance events, so I think those are all gonzo when the next retirement list hits.  The IST's are more than done.  They have not returned to my region since the spring clearance.  The only place I can find those are online and at TRU where the price is jacked up beyond retail.

Plus, Force Friday will usher in the 5 new Rogue One sets, so those will take precedence..  Now, I anxiously await to hear those rumors on what appears on January 2015.  I think those rumors will begin to surface by september or so, and if AT-ACT is in those rumors...then it COULD possibly be wise to shill off your AT-AT's within this next couple months.  Although, that could be a crapshoot too, because there won't be another AT-AT available this christmas, so it may still rise up until January 1st, then take a hit if a new set is made for Rogue One.  Last year the MF was available before Christmas, so that's the one big difference between a possible AT-ACT affecting AT-AT prices, and the MF's from last year.  I think i'm going to roll the dice and sell off half of my remaining AT-AT stock after school starts back up, then wait until after black friday to pair down all but the best mintiest box that I have, and keep that one for the long term.

Edited July 28, 2016 by fossilrock

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Even though I enjoyed EP8, I'm a little nervous as to how the new sets will perform. I've got a few Poe X-Wings at a low enough price to break even after fees if I have to.

Regarding Scooby Doo, I don't see as many on the shelves as previously so I think this could be a short run. That's why I've stocked up on Mystery Machines during the recent deals.

Of course there's bound to be a "shocker" to catch us out like the Town Hall did. My money's on the VW Camper ;-)

[Sprocket77]

1 minute ago, TabbyBoy said:

Even though I enjoyed EP8, 

How many Deloreans do you still own then?

[biking_tiger]

1 minute ago, TabbyBoy said:

 

Of course there's bound to be a "shocker" to catch us out like the Town Hall did. My money's on the VW Camper ;-)

Is it really shocking since it's been available for 5 years? 

33 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

But, the FO Transporter, Snowspeeder, Tie-fighter, and Kylo's ships have seen clearance nation-wide, also a few of the sets from the 2016 winter wave like Leia's Resistance Transporter, as well as Battle of Takodana have also seen clerance events (although, BOT has returned in mass at the stores around me, so makes me wonder why they were clearanced in the first place).  The 2015 stormtrooper sets have also seen clearance events, so I think those are all gonzo when the next retirement list hits.  The IST's are more than done.  They have not returned to my region since the spring clearance.  The only place I can find those are online and at TRU where the price is jacked up beyond retail.
 

I have a few smaller Walmarts in my area, and they haven't had 2015 stormtrooper sets all summer. Those small stores with limited shelf space are interesting. 

[fossilrock]

10 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

Is it really shocking since it's been available for 5 years? 

I have a few smaller Walmarts in my area, and they haven't had 2015 stormtrooper sets all summer. Those small stores with limited shelf space are interesting. 

Same here, the only thing I tend to see are crushed shadow trooper battlepacks.  Even the Naboo fighter has been gone for a long while and hasn't returned. I also haven't seen a Flash Speeder in some time.

[feed]

40 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

The Millennium Falcon remains the oddball, because in May 2017 (if that movie still is put there as planned), the Han Solo movie is due out, and one would expect that the MF will have to be in that movie, because he's just got to do the Kessel Run in 12 parsecs.  Poe's Black x-wing should retire, just because there are two currently out there.  Rey's speederbike, well thats an unknown. 

Solo movie is 2018 and I wouldn't be surprise if it was bounced to the Christmas slot so as not to conflict with Infinity War Part 1.  I can't see a new Falcon before end of 2017 earliest.  

[exciter1]

43 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

The IST's are more than done.  They have not returned to my region since the spring clearance.  The only place I can find those are online and at TRU where the price is jacked up beyond retail.

75094 - SW: Imperial Shuttle Tydirium - $76.99 (23% off)

[fossilrock]

4 minutes ago, feed said:

Solo movie is 2018 and I wouldn't be surprise if it was bounced to the Christmas slot so as not to conflict with Infinity War Part 1.  I can't see a new Falcon before end of 2017 earliest.  

I'm surprised it's still scheduled for May 2017, since it hasn't started filming yet and isn't supposed to begin filming until January.  Episode 8 is already wrapped up filming, a year and a half before it's release.

If it was bumped back, I wouldn't be shocked about that, but I do think it messes with the marketing and production of these products.  If it does stay in that memorial day release slot, it will definitely affect the lego waves because the products will be crammed together for Septembers Force Friday 2017's Episode 8 release, the traditional January Wave, and then a Force Friday for Han Solo Film (which would probably be like "May the 4th" for that year.  Where the Force Awakens Falcon's retirement fits in, as well as a new falcon to fit with the new Han Solo movie is unknown, but you can sort of guess the pattern - FA Falcon gone by december, and a new one is pushed back out for the Force Friday Han Solo film.

[asharerin]

14 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Of course there's bound to be a "shocker" to catch us out like the Town Hall did. My money's on the VW Camper ;-)

The only thing shocking about the VW Camper is how long it has been available and how many are stockpiled by resellers.

If Parisian Restaurant went I would put that in the category of a Town Hall shocker. Everything else that is retiring is completely expected and heavily stockpiled.

[fossilrock]

7 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

75094 - SW: Imperial Shuttle Tydirium - $76.99 (23% off)

The spring walmart clearance I found a few in the 40's.  I haven't seen these at Walmart and Target stores since that event, but they still are easy to get online, at decent prices.  I"m sitting at my usual target for sets like this, so I don't want to buy anymore, until the very end.
 

[feed]

7 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

If it was bumped back, I wouldn't be shocked about that, but I do think it messes with the marketing and production of these products.  

    
It’s a bit out of date, but still shows the issue we have in trying to align product to movie releases and marketing plans.   The movies don’t exist in isolation and they’re all completing for the best slot, so product will inevitably end up being out of alignment. Release dates are easier to move than product orders. Never-mind issue like the First Order Snowspeeder.   

 

[Sfcommando14]

Same here, the only thing I tend to see are crushed shadow trooper battlepacks.  Even the Naboo fighter has been gone for a long while and hasn't returned. I also haven't seen a Flash Speeder in some time.

All of the stores near me who clearanced these in the spring never got any more. The only ones left now are RRP (never discounted) at WM/TRU/Target.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

33 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

How many Deloreans do you still own then?

Actually none apart from one in my collecton as I was stupid enough to sell my stash for around £75 (3x buy-in) rather than wait for £50 extra.

[fossilrock]

16 minutes ago, feed said:

    
It’s a bit out of date, but still shows the issue we have in trying to align product to movie releases and marketing plans.   The movies don’t exist in isolation and they’re all completing for the best slot, so product will inevitably end up being out of alignment. Release dates are easier to move than product orders. Never-mind issue like the First Order Snowspeeder.   

 

Nice.  I think it's safe to assume, that the Batman Movie CMF line that is rumored will be the next wave of minifigures, and that the Lego Movie sequel will get a wave in 2018.  That leaves me to guess that there will be a Disney series 2 next year, and perhaps Series 17.  Your list is great. Thanks.

[dcdfan]

Nice.  I think it's safe to assume, that the Batman Movie CMF line that is rumored will be the next wave of minifigures, and that the Lego Movie sequel will get a wave in 2018.  That leaves me to guess that there will be a Disney series 2 next year, and perhaps Series 17.  Your list is great. Thanks.

My guess is

1/17 batman

5/17 series 17

9/17 Lego