Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Manse1001]

29 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Personally, if you are looking for sets to hit 2x the quickest, I wouldn't go with a single modular since time is playing a factor and the only one that has any real possibility would be the UCS tie if that one retires in the next few months. 

I have been playing this game in my head too, and i'd go with Mystery Machine, Imperial Shuttle Tydirium, Rey's Speeder Bike, The Eiffel Tower, and Big Ben from the architecture line..

I agree.  For a modular to hit 2x retail it always takes a bit of time, especially when the likes of the PS have been around for such a long time and are heavy hoarded, there will be plenty of stock that will hit Ebay after retirement, and you inevitably face the battle of the resellers where people start to reduce their prices to shift their stock early and before you know if you are selling for literally no profit (Tumbler) hence it is better to sit on a set for a year or two post retirement and wait for the initial influx to disperse. 

Also, you see very little discount on the exclusives, if you are lucky you maybe able to pick one up from various online shops which 10%.

Where as MM, IST, RS, ET,BB etc. will be easier to shift, firstly because 2xRRP on these sets is a lot lower and therefore people are likely to part with their cash without as much thought.  If you are looking at 2x profit, this will be even quicker to achieve because most people on here purchased the MM for £15, RS - £10 etc. so even if you sale at just over RRP after retirement you can still double your money relatively quickly.  Buyers may do their research and think to themselves 'its fine, I'm still paying RRP or just over for the MM at £30/£35 on ebay after retirement' which they will find acceptable, however we purchased them at £15 and therefore doubled our money. 

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

Personally, if you are looking for sets to hit 2x the quickest, I wouldn't go with a single modular since time is playing a factor and the only one that has any real possibility would be the UCS tie if that one retires in the next few months. 

I have been playing this game in my head too, and i'd go with Mystery Machine, Imperial Shuttle Tydirium, Rey's Speeder Bike, The Eiffel Tower, and Big Ben from the architecture line..

He mentioned a 100 USD minimum set price, so realistically modulars are the best bet. Otherwise, small sets like MM or mixels are easy bets.

[jaisonline]

He mentioned a 100 USD minimum set price, so realistically modulars are the best bet. Otherwise, small sets like MM or mixels are easy bets.

With $100 min, I guess... Will be the fastest to achieve 2x MSRP. In no particular order.
Sandcrawler
Helicarrier
Fairgrounds Mixer
Simpson's House
Jurassic World HQ

[Ciglione]

1 minute ago, jaisonline said:

 

With $100 min, I guess... Will be the fastest to achieve 2x MSRP. In no particular order.
Sandcrawler
Helicarrier
Fairgrounds Mixer
Simpson's House
Jurassic World HQ
 

 

I hope you turn out to be right.

[cladner]

This whole recent what gets to 2x discussion belongs on what set should I buy thread.  This is the I think something is going to retire soon thread.  If you are talking about sets that are going to retire on your list its pet shop and ewokvillag.  No way Feris wheel goes before fairground mixer.  I am at my goal for palace cinema which could be another dark horse  to eliminate the 149.99 price point.  I will be surprised if scooby retires before 2017.  

[jaisonline]

27 minutes ago, cladner said:

This whole recent what gets to 2x discussion belongs on what set should I buy thread.  This is the I think something is going to retire soon thread.  If you are talking about sets that are going to retire on your list its pet shop and ewokvillag.  No way Feris wheel goes before fairground mixer.  I am at my goal for palace cinema which could be another dark horse  to eliminate the 149.99 price point.  I will be surprised if scooby retires before 2017.  

i see your point.  it still is sorta on-topic since the sets being mentioned would need to retire this year (the "speculation").  however, i agree the speculation is kinda indirectly implied.  if needed, the mods can move posts if they go way off-topic.

[trekgate502]

44 minutes ago, cladner said:

This whole recent what gets to 2x discussion belongs on what set should I buy thread.  This is the I think something is going to retire soon thread.  If you are talking about sets that are going to retire on your list its pet shop and ewokvillag.  No way Feris wheel goes before fairground mixer.  I am at my goal for palace cinema which could be another dark horse  to eliminate the 149.99 price point.  I will be surprised if scooby retires before 2017.  

rofl

[jaisonline]

54 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

I hope you turn out to be right.

i think most of these listed sets will retire this yr. just going with my gut feeling.  i also think a couple of members (e.g. @emazers ) have stated some sets like the Simpson's House are not on the 2017 exclusive order form.

 

[Ciglione]

25 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

i think most of these listed sets will retire this yr. just going with my gut feeling.  i also think a couple of members (e.g. @emazers ) have stated some sets like the Simpson's House are not on the 2017 exclusive order form.

 

I was not interested exactly about these sets retirement. I was more interested in these sets becoming 2 x RRP within a year. I hope you will be right on that.

[jaisonline]

I was not interested exactly about these sets retirement. I was more interested in these sets becoming 2 x RRP within a year. I hope you will be right on that.

Then I would have to move your posts to the "what to buy"

[Sozial]

75102 is on clearance at a german grocery store, normally their clearance is reliable for predicting eol

[jaisonline]

9 minutes ago, Sozial said:

75102 is on clearance at a german grocery store, normally their clearance is reliable for predicting eol

for those who don't have set #s memorized, this is Poe's X-Wing Fighter personally, i think Poe's x-wing has another year of life.  it was featured heavily in TFA film.  who knows though...

[Deanfjr]

12 minutes ago, Sozial said:

75102 is on clearance at a german grocery store, normally their clearance is reliable for predicting eol

yea so much for this one, glad I didn't go crazy, or I'd be poe....

Edited July 19, 2016 by Deanfjr

[exciter1]

for those who don't have set #s memorized, this is Poe's X-Wing Fighter personally, i think Poe's x-wing has another year of life.  it was featured heavily in TFA film.  who knows though...

I think there's a pretty good chance it's a goner.

[zskid00]

There were a lot of Star Wars sets that disappeared last fall/winter that were out only 12-16 months, even some you would have expected to hang around longer such as the AT-AT, ISD, Cantina, and MTT.

[Manse1001]

Just collected a Indominus Rex from Smyths tonight, 3 on the shelf all 20R6 seal codes ....

[c_rpg]

Just throwing this out there. Here is what one of the larger retailers in my country has for large sets that are currently out of stock:

back in August:
10234 - Sydney Opera House
75095 - UCS TIE
10214 - Tower Bridge
71016 - Kwik-E-Mart
75060 - Slave I
10246 - Detective's Office
100242 - Mini Cooper
10220 - T1 Camper

no new stock coming in:
71006 - Simpsons House
75059 - Sandcrawler

Not saying this is conclusive, but it is just some info.

Edited July 22, 2016 by c_rpg

[Legojona]

On 07/22/2016 at 1:02 PM, c_rpg said:

Just throwing this out there. Here is what one of the larger retailers in my country has for large sets that are currently out of stock:

back in August:
10234 - Sydney Opera House
75095 - UCS TIE
10214 - Tower Bridge
71016 - Kwik-E-Mart
75060 - Slave I
10246 - Detective's Office
100242 - Mini Cooper
10220 - T1 Camper

no new stock coming in:
71006 - Simpsons House
75059 - Sandcrawler

Not saying this is conclusive, but it is just some info.

Some are probably just out of stock due to high demand (like detective's office).

The sandcrawler  and Simpsons sets are on their way out, I think. The opera house as well, I  think.

[AZNSalinas96]

Personally, if you are looking for sets to hit 2x the quickest, I wouldn't go with a single modular since time is playing a factor and the only one that has any real possibility would be the UCS tie if that one retires in the next few months. 

I have been playing this game in my head too, and i'd go with Mystery Machine, Imperial Shuttle Tydirium, Rey's Speeder Bike, The Eiffel Tower, and Big Ben from the architecture line..

Yay scooby doo love

Yeeheheheheeh

[Sozial]

75101 on sale at the grocery store here in germany, as told before, the sales of the chain has been really reliable.

[Bobofischer]

31 minutes ago, Sozial said:

75101 on sale at the grocery store here in germany, as told before, the sales of the chain has been really reliable.

And which store is that?

[Sozial]

22 minutes ago, Bobofischer said:

And which store is that?

Rossmann for 47€, if you use 10% discount code u get it to ~43

 

[BrickU]

Every few years the Lego Group turns the page and does a massive, sometimes slow wipe out of sets including ones that are only say 6-9 months old.  This will be the case this year.  They are moving in a slightly different direction with some new sets & ideas soon.  One may be able to "Cash In" with the correct buys; as is always the case.  However, its not like it used to be.  Even highly experienced investors have duds.  Similar to Wall Street Investors controlling your retirement fund.   Oh and there will always be some unexpected large sets over the $120 mark that will just disappear.  One needs to consume lots of information to make the correct decisions regarding these.  I''ll stop there.....  Good Luck!

[Scatterbug]

22 minutes ago, BrickU said:

Every few years the Lego Group turns the page and does a massive, sometimes slow wipe out of sets including ones that are only say 6-9 months old.  This will be the case this year.  They are moving in a slightly different direction with some new sets & ideas soon. 

You're speaking with an air of certainty - why?

[Furious_george]

1 hour ago, BrickU said:

Every few years the Lego Group turns the page and does a massive, sometimes slow wipe out of sets including ones that are only say 6-9 months old.  This will be the case this year.  They are moving in a slightly different direction with some new sets & ideas soon.  One may be able to "Cash In" with the correct buys; as is always the case.  However, its not like it used to be.  Even highly experienced investors have duds.  Similar to Wall Street Investors controlling your retirement fund.   Oh and there will always be some unexpected large sets over the $120 mark that will just disappear.  One needs to consume lots of information to make the correct decisions regarding these.  I''ll stop there.....  Good Luck!

Cryptic! Cool.:)