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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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12 hours ago, Menno said:

What will be the best investment and why?

10236  dorp" rel="external nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Ewok2122.png village

10232 Palace Cinema

10220 Volkswagen T1

10218 Pet shop

10234 Sydney Opera House

- 60097 City Square

My advice: Make a list of the LEGO prices and compare what these sets are sold for on Marktplaats and on eBay. If they're sold there way below RRP then you know it's not a good investment, but if they're already sold for close to or even above RRP then it's safe to bet they will only go up in price after they're officially retired.

But your buy-in is also important because you'll have to deal with fees and additional costs for selling. And you'll have to compete with other resellers who did get those sets at lower buy-in.

Also, and it's rather unlikely, but there is a chance that the 10242 Mini Cooper gets retired before the 10220 Volkswagen T1. LEGO might want to keep the 10220 around a while longer as a companion to the new 10252 Volkswagen Beetle... All speculation of course, but that's what this topic is all about. ;) 

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17 minutes ago, CrabslayerT said:

SOH and Mini are now Oos. Is it possible they go so soon???????

Oostock.png

Well, let's first wait till it's 24th of June and see if TB and MINI Cooper become regularly available again, or whether their OoS status gets moved to July...

SOH is giving a stronger signal that it's on its last legs. But as long as there's an ADD TO BAG button there's still stock to be ordered from.

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1 hour ago, CrabslayerT said:

SOH and Mini are now Oos. Is it possible they go so soon???????

BMW's license agreement with Lego could well differ in comparison to the agreement with VW. It could well be possible the mini has a two-year license. Just thinking out loud here. 

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4 hours ago, Ciglione said:

BMW's license agreement with Lego could well differ in comparison to the agreement with VW. It could well be possible the mini has a two-year license. Just thinking out loud here. 

Happy enough I got one to Build. Pity there were no discounts on this set here.

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I'm thinking the mini goes next.  It's too similar to the bug, and would make sense to go next.  I'm sure next year they'll have some truck or some other larger vehicle, and the T1 goes out.  But, the Mini makes sense.. it's at the two year mark and probably the least popular of all the sets out there right now.

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18 minutes ago, willbeesley1994 said:

Dance material? What you mean haha. You buying them now to flip?

When a set is displaying certain availability patterns, we refer to that set as "doing the dance" - in other words, it is displaying behaviors potentially tied to imminent retirement. Note the "potentially" - there have been many dances that have not led to retirement.

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6 minutes ago, tacsniper said:

I think we saw this behaviour last summer too with many products going OOS just to have them come back in full force before the holiday season.

Europe and Australia were the precursors to what later would retire in North America.  I remember last year, right about now, they had a sale across the pond, and quite a few sets were retired right after they sold out.  The hobbit line, Lego Movie, quite a few architecture sets, and some of the exclusive sets like the Tower of Orthanc, and X-wing were retired in europe about six to seven months before it happened here in the states. I also remember some of the Star Wars sets like AT-AT, Cantina, and ISD first went in europe.  

Edited by fossilrock
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On 6/21/2016 at 10:44 AM, Phil B said:

To add fuel to the fire: My LEGO store only has 2 Bionicle sets left (Maskmaker vs Skullgrinder and Lewa Master of Jungle - both old sets) and they have moved Bionicle to a small slither of shelving way in the back. Clerk (clueless as usual) did not think they were getting any new ones. Bit of a bummer as I was going to get a few on sale using VIP points but didn't have enough to get to the $35 free shipping threshold online.

 

retire.jpg

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1 minute ago, donbee said:

 

retire.jpg

This matches my observations. They secretly released 5 new Bionicles (3 Beasts, Mask Maker and Umarak the Destroyer) at the beginning of June ("secretly" as in: I didn't know :) ) which I believe are the last wave of Bionicles, and then it's done. But I am not a follower of the TV show (is there still one?) so I don't know if the show indicates the same retirement, or if they are simply taking a new direction. All the same, I'm glad I've got hold of all of the Uniters & Creatures in the last few days, and managed to get them all for ~40-50% off to boot. I like to think I acted just in time.

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This matches my observations. They secretly released 5 new Bionicles (3 Beasts, Mask Maker and Umarak the Destroyer) at the beginning of June ("secretly" as in: I didn't know ) which I believe are the last wave of Bionicles, and then it's done. But I am not a follower of the TV show (is there still one?) so I don't know if the show indicates the same retirement, or if they are simply taking a new direction. All the same, I'm glad I've got hold of all of the Uniters & Creatures in the last few days, and managed to get them all for ~40-50% off to boot. I like to think I acted just in time.

They have a new 2016 Bionicles show up on Netflix with the new Uniters and Creatures... Only three episodes so far though more are promised.

Sorry to be a bubble burster but I don't think these are done. Last year's wave did this too ... Many found them on super clearance yet they're still available. I think last year's wave is on their last legs and the new sets will be around until next summer.

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2 minutes ago, gregpj said:

They have a new 2016 Bionicles show up on Netflix with the new Uniters and Creatures... Only three episodes so far though more are promised.

Sorry to be a bubble burster but I don't think these are done. Last year's wave did this too ... Many found them on super clearance yet they're still available. I think last year's wave is on their last legs and the new sets will be around until next summer.

Based on the original Bionicle, shouldn't there be like 5-6 versions of the fire guy before the whole line is retired? :D 

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25 minutes ago, gregpj said:

They have a new 2016 Bionicles show up on Netflix with the new Uniters and Creatures... Only three episodes so far though more are promised.

Sorry to be a bubble burster but I don't think these are done. Last year's wave did this too ... Many found them on super clearance yet they're still available. I think last year's wave is on their last legs and the new sets will be around until next summer.

Thanks for the perspective. The 2016 sets are disappearing everywhere though, and as @donbee said, marked as "retiring soon" on LEGO Shop at Home. Perhaps they're just producing less of them? Especially since the 2015 sets are still around at many retailers (the Masters and Protectors, plus the whole Skull Warrior/Slicer/Spider range).

Edited by Phil B
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