Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Ciglione]

Just now, Haay said:

Exactly. And they're at €67 now, at Amazon UK.  

Personally I find the Tydirium Shuttle nicer looking and offering more play features than the 75055 ISD. With a lower starting-point, I think it will be easier to move the IST post EOL than the ISD now. While there's also a remake of the ISD looming for next year in a next wave of Rogue One sets...

Yeah... but with shipping it is still more than 70 euro. So I will just wait patiently like a spider in its web. 

[HandyHand]

2 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Yeah... but with shipping it is still more than 70 euro. So I will just wait patiently like a spider in its web. 

Of course, you have to compare with the German RRP of €99,99 which makes the Amazon UK price of 2 boxes including shipping to make it €71 each less appealing. Compared with the Dutch RRP for 75094 of €109,99 the discount price of €71 is more advantageous.  

And well... I guess I have to admit that I'm just not as good as you or Val-E are at scoring those 40% or better discounts.   But I'm still learning.  

[Val-E]

Remember, our countries pay Lego tax so RRP is 110 euros compare with 100 in Germany so less than 70 euros is a reasonable deal for us. We should still, however, expect better deals in Q4.

[Phil B]

After visiting several WMs where the entire Bionicle line has disappeared from shelves (no more shelf space for them (replaced with Nexo Knights packs) - whatever is left is parked in the clearance aisle), I'm wondering if this is a bellweather for the end of Bionicle or just WM deciding these don't fit in their planograms anymore.

[fossilrock]

The naysayers are getting old.  Makes me wonder if they actually put in the effort to sell any star wars sets, or have been playing the game at all.

Almost every OT set from last year that retired has risen in value.  Even Prequel sets that no one thought would do anything like the Jedi Interceptor, Droid Gunship, Battle of Saleucami, AT-AP, etc are all bouncing upwards.  The poorest, most neglected OT set from last year, the B-wing was easily found for 30.00 at many points near the final period and you can easily make about 70% profit off of it right now.  I guess that sucks to some.  But, to me it shows that these sets still have legs. There's no doubt in my mind the entire 2015 summer and winter waves from last year will rise in value once they are gone, even the sets like Flash Speeder, and Naboo Fighter. The T-16 skyhopper came out in january 2015, and retired about a year later, and is a decent money maker, especially to those that invested in more than just a few.

Some of you are just way too pessimistic and negative and not based in reality.  Are you really playing the game, or just trying to act like you know what you are talking about?  Because i've been watching all the star wars sets that just recently retired from last year go up in value.  There are tons of lego star wars collectors out there, and it's a growing market.  They also only produce so many sets per year, which means when these sets do retire, it's years before they are redone.  The IST won't be done again for quite some time.  So, regardless if there are 200 people on amazon with them, this is a set that will eventually hit 200.00 and make money within a year or two after EOL.  At best the horde might extend the RRP of a set for a few months after EOL, but it doesn't last long, because many bow out within the first six months, and the demand is there..

Edited June 20, 2016 by fossilrock

[Darth_Raichu]

12 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

The naysayers are getting old.  Makes me wonder if they actually put in the effort to sell any star wars sets, or have been playing the game at all.

Almost every OT set from last year that retired has risen in value.  Even sets that no one thought would do anything like the Jedi Interceptor, Droid Gunship, Battle of Saleucami, AT-AP, etc.  B-wing was easily found for 30.00 at many points and you can easily make about 70% profit off of it right now.  I guess that sucks to some.  But, to me it shows that these sets still have legs. There's no doubt in my mind the entire 2015 summer and winter waves from last year will rise in value once they are gone, even the sets like Flash Speeder, and Naboo Fighter. 

Some of you are just way too pessimistic and negative and not based in reality.  Are you really playing the game, or just trying to act like you know what you are talking about?  Because i've been watching all the star wars sets that just recently retired from last year go up in value.  There are tons of lego star wars collectors out there, and it's a growing market.  They also only produce so many sets per year, which means when these sets do retire, it's years before they are redone.  The IST won't be done again for quite some time.  So, regardless if there are 200 people on amazon with them, this is a set that will eventually hit 200.00 and make money within a year or two after EOL.  At best the horde might extend the RRP of a set for a few months after EOL, but it doesn't last long, because many bow out within the first six months.

Nope it is just a clear sign of market corrections

[Phil B]

Argh why do you guys keep summoning he-who-must-not-be-named ??

 

[biking_tiger]

2 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Argh why do you guys keep summoning he-who-must-not-be-named ??

 

Some people just like to poke the bear. 

[Darth_Raichu]

6 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Argh why do you guys keep summoning he-who-must-not-be-named ??

 

Sorry, that title should be reserved for someone who actually had the ability to control the price of a set. Not just some 2 bits troll.

[Ciglione]

[Achilles]

2 hours ago, Phil B said:

After visiting several WMs where the entire Bionicle line has disappeared from shelves (no more shelf space for them (replaced with Nexo Knights packs) - whatever is left is parked in the clearance aisle), I'm wondering if this is a bellweather for the end of Bionicle or just WM deciding these don't fit in their planograms anymore.

SAH has about 5 new Bionicle sets that were released this June, but that most of them are clearanced priced and appear to be on their way out. I had the same observation during the previous Walmart clear wave - as the section previously devoted to Bionicle seemed to basically be no more except for a few stragglers. The Target reset coming in the next few weeks will give us I think a more sure-fire answer, since their Planogram tends to be the most "up to date" of the major retailers I frequent. I suspect there will be much less shelf space devoted to Bionicle this wave. Personally, i think they suffered from variety overload with this theme, there were just so many sets and incarnations of the chars avail at one time. I also thought having the Star Wars buildables, the Nexo Knight buildables, and the Bionicles seemed a bit too much, IMO.

[Val-E]

I don´t recall anyone saying SW OT was a bad investment but it has its sets to be avoided like any theme.

The issue with IST is that, based on past seasonal offers, it is going to cost less to buy in a few months and will be closer to retirement so why waste ammo right now?

I would also want to be a bit surer about which other SW sets will retire this winter as it is always better to have 2 or 3 big ones going to spread supply around or everyone will go all in on just the one and we get and advent calendar or Santa´s Workshop situation.

 

[Darth_Raichu]

2 minutes ago, Achilles said:

I also thought having the Star Wars buildables, the Nexo Knight buildables, and the Bionicles seemed a bit too much, IMO.

Are those upcoming sets ?  I have seen NK character packs (a la Ninjago spinners / Chima speedorz), but never saw NK buildables

[Achilles]

3 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Are those upcoming sets ?  I have seen NK character packs (a la Ninjago spinners / Chima speedorz), but never saw NK buildables

No no, my terminology may have been off - I just referring to the "Ultimate" char packs. But to me, the packaging/marketing and the over the top pieces - they come off like a buildable more so than a standard set so I just kind of lump them into the same category.  

 

[fossilrock]

4 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I don´t recall anyone saying SW OT was a bad investment but it has its sets to be avoided like any theme.

The issue with IST is that, based on past seasonal offers, it is going to cost less to buy in a few months and will be closer to retirement so why waste ammo right now?

I would also want to be a bit surer about which other SW sets will retire this winter as it is always better to have 2 or 3 big ones going to spread supply around or everyone will go all in on just the one and we get and advent calendar or Santa´s Workshop situation.

 

Maybe in western Europe that will be the case, but here in the US, the IST I think has already hit bottom, and from here on out, it will hover around the low 80's until it goes OOS at most retailers, which I suspect occurs around November as we near black friday.  Right now the cheapest place to get them is Amazon, and even at their buy-in, you will make out nicely on these.

It seems that here in the states especially, May the 4th is that period where you get the best deals on the future retirees.  My spreadsheets have shown this for a few years now.  After May the 4th, there is usually a moderately decent clearance event at walmarts in july, but that can be sporadic and it seemed that this year, the better clearance event happened in May of this year, although July has yet to be written, so maybe we will see Force Awakens sets that are due to be retired get phased out next.  And to be honest, I have not seen any IST's at walmarts in my area since they hit 74.00 last month.  In fact, walmart.com now shows it in the hands of toywiz at 139.99, and they are gone within a 50 mile radius of my area.  So, I'm glad I stocked up when I did... because this set is now scarce and almost gone from my area.  While I can still go into Target and TRU and pick up a handful of these at RRP or just a slight bit over, the days of getting them at 49.00 or 74.00 US is over, and I doubt we see them go that low again.  It's following the same may the 4th pattern as most sets that are abound to retire.  Last year it was AT-AT's, Ghost, and Cantinas that were dropped on clearance events first, and by october those sets were very scarce.  As the fall months wore on  ISD's, B-wings, and snowspeeders were slowly clearanced out too, but not at prices that i'd call substantial discounts.  So, i'm just saying that IST's are going to be gone soon, and so will Jedi Duels, Naboo Starfighters, and even the exclusives like Battle Droid Troop Carriers, and Hailfire droids. In my area, even some force awakens sets are now getting scarce, especially the FO Transporter, which saw a big drop around May the 4th..  So, things are already progressing to the next phase, and the 2015 sets are soon to be a retired blip in the forever ongoing star wars timeline.  We can argue all we want that they are going to be duds, but I doubt it.  I don't buy that at all.  I don't even see any of the Force Awakens sets being duds. 

Maybe Rogue One sets will be duds if the movie flops, but I doubt that too. 

21 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

Some people just like to poke the bear. 

I refuse to play with that bear.  He's kind of proven to me that he hasn't really played the game, and is just full of hot air.  That guy has "rookie" without a clue written all over him, even if he pretends he's not.

[HandyHand]

18 hours ago, Val-E said:

I don´t recall anyone saying SW OT was a bad investment but it has its sets to be avoided like any theme.

The issue with IST is that, based on past seasonal offers, it is going to cost less to buy in a few months and will be closer to retirement so why waste ammo right now?

I would also want to be a bit surer about which other SW sets will retire this winter as it is always better to have 2 or 3 big ones going to spread supply around or everyone will go all in on just the one and we get and advent calendar or Santa´s Workshop situation.

Somewhere else I read some rumours, and one of them was that all Star Wars sets below 75100 (but I don't think that should include Rey's Speeder 75099 set) will retire by end of this year. And it's only about regular (play) sets, not the D2C UCS exclusives like Sandcrawler, Slave-1, and TIE Fighter.

I do agree with @Val-E though that there were good discounts given in the final months of last year on 'soon to be retired' sets, especially on 75055 ISD and 75054 AT-AT.

So there's certainly a good chance that left-over stock of 75094 IST will be cleared off at good discounts by end of this year. 

Other (interesting?) sets that fall in the "below 75099" category are:

- 75096 Sith Infiltrator

- 75093 Death Star Final Duel

- 75092 Naboo Starfighter

- 75091 Flash Speeder

- 75087 Anakin's Custom Jedi Starfighter

- 75085 Hailfire Droid

- 75082 Tie Advanced Prototype

Of all these sets that are at risk of retiring this year, I find the IST the most appealing set, with the DSFD a close second. When you can score any of these at a solid discount there's no reason not to start stocking up on them already, while keeping some spare funds available for the closing of the year clearance discounts on these sets.  

Edited June 21, 2016 by Haay

[Phil B]

On 6/20/2016 at 9:07 AM, Phil B said:

After visiting several WMs where the entire Bionicle line has disappeared from shelves (no more shelf space for them (replaced with Nexo Knights packs) - whatever is left is parked in the clearance aisle), I'm wondering if this is a bellweather for the end of Bionicle or just WM deciding these don't fit in their planograms anymore.

To add fuel to the fire: My LEGO store only has 2 Bionicle sets left (Maskmaker vs Skullgrinder and Lewa Master of Jungle - both old sets) and they have moved Bionicle to a small slither of shelving way in the back. Clerk (clueless as usual) did not think they were getting any new ones. Bit of a bummer as I was going to get a few on sale using VIP points but didn't have enough to get to the $35 free shipping threshold online.

[Menno]

What will be the best investment and why?

- 10236 Ewok™ village

- 10232 Palace Cinema

- 10220 Volkswagen T1

- 10218 Pet shop

- 10234 Sydney Opera House

- 60097 City Square

[landphieran]

4 hours ago, Menno said:

What will be the best investment and why?

- 10236  dorp" rel="external nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Ewok village

- 10232 Palace Cinema

- 10220 Volkswagen T1

- 10218 Pet shop

- 10234 Sydney Opera House

- 60097 City Square

I'd recommend putting some effort into explaining what you believe in regards to best investments. People will be more willing to weigh in knowing you shared your insight.

[feed]

On 6/15/2016 at 3:42 PM, Achilles said:

Val, - just curious, what bad experience did you have with 9492? I know the price has come down (I assume in part because of the FO Tie), but I absolutely cleaned up with 9492. Those sold for $150 Christmas 2014. 

Even at $120 NOW, at MSRP one would still be making money with it.

 

Following have just gone on sale at EU, nothing exciting, but I’d expect their numbers up. Quite like 60071 Hovercraft Arrest.  

60069 Swamp Police Station
70749 Enter the Serpent
70748 Titanium Dragon
60071 Hovercraft Arrest
10682 LEGO® Creative Suitcase
10565 LEGO® DUPLO® Creative Suitcase
70795 Mask Maker vs. Skull Grinder
70747 Boulder Blaster
70746 Condrai Copter Attack
70730 Chain Cycle Ambush
60067 Helicopter Pursuit
10594 Sofia the First Royal Stable
75113 Rey
70755 Jungle Raider
10604 Jake and the Never Land Pirates T…
70794 Skull Scorpio
70793 Skull Basher
70792 Skull Slicer
70791 Skull Warrior
 

 

[Val-E]

No JW, no Scooby

Rey is not on sale either, btw

[feed]

Wonder if they'll add more tomorrow..  

as for Ray, granted it's not much of a sale at 10%, but still.

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, feed said:

Wonder if they'll add more tomorrow..  

as for Ray, granted it's not much of a sale at 10%, but still.

Especially when it is only in the UK! Don´t usually add more items to the sale, do they?

[Val-E]

70756 dojo is also reduced in the US but not Europe and it seems Australia, Belgium have no sale!

Edited June 22, 2016 by Val-E

[feed]

3 minutes ago, Val-E said:

70756 dojo is also reduced in the US but not Europe and it seems Australia, Belgium have no sale!

In region over stock only? Typical Lego.   

I’m going to keep an eye on it over the next couple of days anyways, who knows what they’ll do next.