Retiring Soon - open speculation

[marcandre]

Your'e missing my point.

 

Was not missing the point but your posting false info. Just correcting in case someone is looking to buy at walmart. 

[No More Monkeys]

Finally, I found it at the bottom of suggested products...WT?  Why wouldn't it just show up in the search results.  Nice.

In cases like that , I end up searching from outside, via google, like "walmart lego 10211". Internal Walmart search is very flaky.

[brickelements]

If major Lego Exclusives go the route of the Vampire Castle there will may be a shift into shorter cycle sets like CIty?

Sure they get repeated, but when was the last time you have seen any of the retired large planes even close to their MSRP?

 

City sets can be part of a balanced Lego Portfolio. 

I haven't made less than 50% on any of my City set sales over the last 2 yrs.

That stat is skewed because I have only owned a few city sets.  Firehouses, airports/airplanes.

 

Bought a couple of 3182 Airports (supposed to give one to my nephew).  Well he had already opened one from Grandma.

So I had two.  Both bought for less than $80 and sold for more than $150.

 

Held about 15 months or so for a 60+% profit. (~50% CARG?)

[johnwray]

I wonder what would buffet do if he knew of possible short-term bets, where at the worst you are breaking even, accounting for fees and costs and inflation, and occasionally stumbling on winners?

I am by no means a seasoned investor, but I think the hidden factor is the opportunity cost. Depending on how long you hold it, breaking even on a set can be a significant loss because that money has been held hostage between purchase and sale. It could instead have been invested in a set that grew in value over the same period of time. In market investing (as I understand it), the real power is in steadily accumulating shares and letting compounding dividends do the work for you. That's why Buffeet advises index funds that have very low annual fees--it gives your portfolio a not-insignificant boost that can grow massive over the long-term.

if you care enough you check out my epic pics. Or ask those who know me on here in real life. Holleman and Emazers do. Every time Emazers sees me he's like youngster your one bicep is as big as my whole lego collection. I be like thanks gramps. I'm a few month away from having my personal certification degree. I'll train you for lego. Or we csn just continue debating my looks but it seems most don't get my above humor and are getting sad. I was being facious Damnit.

I have totally ripped thumb muscles from all the manual brick-separating I do.

[Anakinisvader]

I think TRU should get all of the exclusives and sell them for years after they are retired. They would raise the secondary market prices to match their "retail" prices.

[binici]

TRU is like a fine woman, she looks good, but acts bad (can't cook or clean).

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[No More Monkeys]

I am by no means a seasoned investor, but I think the hidden factor is the opportunity cost. Depending on how long you hold it, breaking even on a set can be a significant loss because that money has been held hostage between purchase and sale. It could instead have been invested in a set that grew in value over the same period of time. In market investing (as I understand it), the real power is in steadily accumulating shares and letting compounding dividends do the work for you. That's why Buffeet advises index funds that have very low annual fees--it gives your portfolio a not-insignificant boost that can grow massive over the long-term.

 

I don't think compounding dividends work in case of particular bet that  Buffet participated in. He bought shares of the low fee mutual fund that does not pay dividends to holders. The fund itself _might_ (or might not) use share of companies that pay divident, but that's not relevant (if Buffet was trying to prove a point  about dividends, then he would bought shares of a fund that focuses on dividend-paying shares).

The argument about opportunity cost can go both ways. You could be locked-in with large set earning steady solid percent, while under-performing sets, which _presumably_ could be offloaded breaking even with proceeds invested into Big Zoo/VH/MHC/AT-TE kind of events, earning you 50% in a month or so 

[Ed Mack]

I think TRU should get all of the exclusives and sell them for years after they are retired. They would raise the secondary market prices to match their "retail" prices.

Maybe LEGO has a deal with TRU to discourage resellers in which they discount sets to TRU to a greater degree and let them sell sets that are discontinued for everyone else.  It works on numerous levels for LEGO.  They get to retire sets, clear inventory and move onto new ones, yet many large exclusives are still available thru TRU...hurting secondary market prices, forcing many resellers to move onto another product to sell.

[No More Monkeys]

Maybe LEGO has a deal with TRU to discourage resellers in which they discount sets to TRU to a greater degree and let them sell sets that are discontinued for everyone else.  It works on numerous levels for LEGO.  They get to retire sets, clear inventory and move onto new ones, yet many large exclusives are still available thru TRU...hurting secondary market prices, forcing many resellers to move onto another product to sell.

Sooo, Jeff was indeed right, and we need to just  burn our exclusives inventory, and switch to small sets... (looking for matches frantically... crap, electric stove... crap, don't smoke... have to go to bar...)

[Ed Mack]

Sooo, Jeff was indeed right, and we need to just  burn our exclusives inventory, and switch to small sets... (looking for matches frantically... crap, electric stove... crap, don't smoke... have to go to bar...)

Small sets?!?!?...Remember this one!

[No More Monkeys]

Small sets?!?!?...Remember this one!

Weeeeelllll, that one exclusive to TRU from start... does  not count

 

What about warehousing costs, and all the other business crap that does not really let big businesses to keep slow-moving merchandise forever?

[Ed Mack]

Weeeeelllll, that one exclusive to TRU from start... does  not count

 

What about warehousing costs, and all the other business crap that does not really let big businesses to keep slow-moving merchandise forever?

Does this really apply to TRU?  LOL.  Obviously not, with their history of bankruptcies.  They are not Amazon, Walmart or Target, which cares about such things and actually makes a profit.  I am not saying these exclusives will be available forever, but what happens if they delay "true EOL" by 6 months or a year or longer, like it has done with the Vampyre's Castle?  

[No More Monkeys]

Does this really apply to TRU?  LOL.  Obviously not, with their history of bankruptcies.  They are not Amazon, Walmart or Target, which cares about such things and actually makes a profit.  I am not saying these exclusives will be available forever, but what happens if they delay "true EOL" by 6 months or a year or longer?

will have zero impact on emazers income stream then...

 

it would be an interesting move, but if TLC stops production of the set, _if_ that is known, any inventory, even at current TRU inflated prices, would be swept in days. One option for TLC would be to not mark a set as "retired", but they will have to answer lots of calls about availability  :-)

[Ed Mack]

will have zero impact on emazers income stream then...

 

it would be an interesting move, but if TLC stops production of the set, _if_ that is known, any inventory, even at current TRU inflated prices, would be swept in days. One option for TLC would be to not mark a set as "retired", but they will have to answer lots of calls about availability  :-)

How long has the Vampyre's Castle been available at TRU since it was retired or sold out on S@H?

[No More Monkeys]

How long has the Vampyre's Castle been available at TRU since it was retired or sold out on LEGO Shop at Home?

good point...

[Ed Mack]

good point...

Bottom line is that this new TRU "exclusives ploy" can change the entire dynamics of LEGO reselling.  Will resellers like emazers be affected?  Not really.  He holds his sets for awhile.  It won't affect me.  But many short term flippers will be affected.  

[No More Monkeys]

Bottom line is that this new TRU "exclusives ploy" can change the entire dynamics of LEGO reselling.  Will resellers like emazers be affected?  Not really.  He holds his sets for awhile.  It won't affect me.  But many short term flippers will be affected.  

Yay?

[Ed Mack]

Yay?

For some...WHAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!...For others.  

[brickelements]

I am just speculating here...this change in policy occurred after FB.  TRU did not carry that set any longer than other retailers.

 

Was FB more popular than GE...can be debated either way.  I enjoy both sets for different reasons.

Maybe TLG has a specified amount of inventory to sell thru to TRU in this circumstance...again I have no idea.

 

Will it extend the real EOL date.  Maybe.  It is funny how fast a swarm of Brickpickers can decimate a stores B&M or Online inventory.

Look at Target's MHC.  Yeah it is different because in that instance the MHC was rarely discounted and at 16.xx it is a lot diff than $150+ set.

 

This should be interesting to see how this plays out.

Maybe the TLG will only do this for popular sets amongst us investors? 

[inversion]

LEGO is just delaying the inevitable. Then we have to wait 1 more year until stocks dry up. So what? Yeah, I get it, without capital it will be harder to get in the game. But once you are in and the sales begin, you can have a steady cash flow allowing you to finance the business further. 

[Anakinisvader]

Bottom line is that this new TRU "exclusives ploy" can change the entire dynamics of LEGO reselling. Will resellers like emazers be affected? Not really. He holds his sets for awhile. It won't affect me.  But many short term flippers will be affected.

but what if tru only gets large sets modulars exclusives and such then short term flippers will benefit and long term large set investors will be in the toilet because then you will be saying i should have bought small sets and not all the large sets since they are available with tru in the long run and will be around for a lot longer and people that hold for the long term will have to hold longer and the short term flippers will be flipping and making money faster (edited for run on sentence to help long term investors that read emazers posts understand better)

[No More Monkeys]

but what if tru only gets large sets modulars exclusives and such then short term flippers will benefit and long term large set investors will be in the toilet because then you will be saying i should have bought small sets and not all the large sets since they are available with tru in the long run and will be around for a lot longer and people that hold for the long term will have to hold longer and the short term flippers will be flipping and making money faster (edited for run on sentence to help long term investors that read emazers posts understand better)

Vampyre castle is not exclusive, though not a small set either

Heck, TRU still has The Mummy available for shipping ...

[fuzzy_bricks]

Other than the "Our Exclusive" tag, is there any evidence that they will be the sole retailer for the GE?  This doesn't even show up under the Our Exclusives category while several items that aren't exclusive do, this could just be a mistake on the website.

 

Speculation ahead---> Since they aren't the only retailer for Technic anymore, maybe they opted for this arrangement instead.

[dbost01]

Vc is toyrus exclusive

[No More Monkeys]

Vc is toyrus exclusive

it is now, but was not at the time: http://www.walmart.com/ip/LEGO-Monster-Fighters-Vampyre-Castle-Play-Set/21095602

 

and I guess we need to separate "TRU only exclusives" (like funhouse), and "no discount exclusive" like GE, and "TRU-only post-retirement exclusive" like VC