Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Val-E]

SOH is likely to go first - no new box and TB is an excellent companion for BB.

[c_rpg]

7 hours ago, yang said:

I think this thread lost mojo now. Nowadays, even if a set really retires, so what? Doesn't mean much anymore. This retiring soon discussion only drives the hoard to go crazy on some soon-to-be-hot sets. But that becomes more of a trap than an opportunity now.

I think this is true for big sets like the UCS, creator expert, modulars, etc. Everyone knows that as soon as a UCS or modular retires the hoard is going to go crazy, no matter what.

I still think there's something to be gained if you get those traditional go-to sets at a decent discount, but this is usually before the sets retire (for example the 20% discount at TRU in March was worth it for exclusives).

8 hours ago, yang said:

I would just go buy the sets I really like and forget about this retiring soon stuff. I will come back to see the sets performance after maybe 2 years after retirement.

It can be useful to know when a set retires just to anticipate the continuation of a theme (eg Simpsons, Pirates) or to see if there are going to be any gaps in the lineup (eg Star Wars). But it is mostly a long term investment.

[Fenix_2k1]

I still maintain that some exclusives last well beyond their projected retirements because as they hit 6 months from standard product life, Lego is seeing a huge uptick in sales because people are stocking up in anticipation. Then a decision is taken to continue production because the set still seems to be in demand. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I reckon that LEGO will keep TB for a long time yet to accompany BB. TB is a very godd seller and I don't see it being retired any time soon. I don't take retirements too seriously anymore due to recent resurrections. Same goes for the VW camper I think if/when the rumoured Beetle comes out. I wish the TB would go as mine are taking up a huge amount of space!

[Val-E]

4 hours ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

I still maintain that some exclusives last well beyond their projected retirements because as they hit 6 months from standard product life, Lego is seeing a huge uptick in sales because people are stocking up in anticipation. Then a decision is taken to continue production because the set still seems to be in demand. 

Correct but we don´t know the timeframe is 6 months.  it works the other way too as slow sellers can be pulled earlier than expected.

[Fenix_2k1]

Yeah the 6 months is a guess.  That's just when the anticipation seems to start building and stocks deplete.

[tjj1984]

On 4/1/2016 at 3:20 PM, JLEW700 said:

For all the conspiracy theorist out there.  I Went to the Lego store today and they threw a magazine in my bag.  In the magazine was the attached comic.  Is this Legos way of foreshadowing?

 

 

 

Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but what is this supposed to be foreshadowing?

[Manse1001]

1 minute ago, tjj1984 said:

Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but what is this supposed to be foreshadowing?

The Retirement of the Sandscrawler . . . 

[tjj1984]

2 minutes ago, Manse1001 said:

The Retirement of the Sandscrawler . . . 

Oh, right. This is the retirement speculation thread.

I haven't had coffee yet this morning.

Edited April 15, 2016 by tjj1984

[fossilrock]

3 minutes ago, Manse1001 said:

The Retirement of the Sandscrawler . . . 

I think it's a no-brainer the sandcrawler retires next.  Just like the X-wing last year, where it started to get knocked out after March, this is now following patterns of just about every UCS set that is due to be retired at the end of the year.  This set will now be "OOS will ship in 30 days" for months, then have a period where it will come back and be around for 2 week intervals, then get knocked out again to "OOS will ship in 30 days:, then it will start playing with the Sold Out label for a few months, while coming back in stock in shorter intervals, until finally staying "Sold Out" around November/December and hanging there permanently until it's retired.  

Still, is it worth investing in?  Probably as it's a great set.  But, if I see more than 150 for sale on amazon by christmas, my feelings of this going over a grand in less than 2 years will diminish. 

[exciter1]

[yang]

43 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I think it's a no-brainer the sandcrawler retires next.  Just like the X-wing last year, where it started to get knocked out after March, this is now following patterns of just about every UCS set that is due to be retired at the end of the year.  This set will now be "OOS will ship in 30 days" for months, then have a period where it will come back and be around for 2 week intervals, then get knocked out again to "OOS will ship in 30 days:, then it will start playing with the Sold Out label for a few months, while coming back in stock in shorter intervals, until finally staying "Sold Out" around November/December and hanging there permanently until it's retired.  

Still, is it worth investing in?  Probably as it's a great set.  But, if I see more than 150 for sale on amazon by christmas, my feelings of this going over a grand in less than 2 years will diminish. 

Friend, you should seriously lower your expectations nowadays.

Going over a grand in less than 2 years?!

I don't even see 10188 Death Star going over a grand before 2018, and 10188 has officially retired and its $100 more expensive than sandcrawler.

BTW, I believe someone showed "06" seals for sandcrawler, so I really doubt it will be gone anytime soon.

[fossilrock]

28 minutes ago, yang said:

Friend, you should seriously lower your expectations nowadays.

Going over a grand in less than 2 years?!

I don't even see 10188 Death Star going over a grand before 2018, and 10188 has officially retired and its $100 more expensive than sandcrawler.

BTW, I believe someone showed "06" seals for sandcrawler, so I really doubt it will be gone anytime soon.

The SSD went a grand over two years.  Granted, the RRP was a 100 more than the SC, but usually sets at this price point can double quickly after retirement, and sometimes go up to 150%.  SSD did...   Trust me i'm already siding with the "lego bubble" camp, and I realize we haven't interacted much here, and I haven't been on here much lately, but when the DS went down last july, I wasn't on the bandwagon going deep on it.  Still, it's only been "officially retired" for a few months, although I think it technically was gone in late Novemeber.  2 years into retirement will be November 2017.  Right now, I think the price point is around 550 on amazon.  A lot of people are holding death stars, and death stars were out much longer than SSD's, and will have a much longer shelf life than even the SC.

And yes, I suspect we will see 06 seals on the SC, like I've stated in my post.  I think that was rather clear.  I speculated this set would begin to die off around May 2016.. That's about a month from now.  But, I wouldn't be shocked if it's November when it's finally dried out of the online retail stores.

Edited April 15, 2016 by fossilrock

[fossilrock]

1 hour ago, exciter1 said:

I think that needs to be my new avatar!

[tacsniper]

9 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

The SSD went a grand over two years.  Granted, the RRP was a 100 more than the SC, but usually sets at this price point can double quickly after retirement, and sometimes go up to 150%.  SSD did...   Trust me i'm already siding with the "lego bubble" camp, and I realize you're a newbie here, but when the DS went down, I wasn't on the bandwagon going deep on it. 

And yes, I suspect we will see 06 seals on the SC, like I've stated in my post.  I think that was rather clear.

You cannot compare the SSD and UCS MF to sets available today... those were before many people know about flipping these TOYS. Today, A LOT more people know about it; especially in the past 6 months with multiple articles around the world being written about Lego is a better investment than gold. Plus, it is ever easier to sell these things with Amazon and eBay and printing postage at the comfort of your home. Even a grade 5 can earn more $ than an adult if you give them the starting capital and have them flip Lego for the amount of hours they are in school each day.

Big chain stores are no dummies either. They have more stock than ever because of the popularity of Lego. When a slight hint of retirement comes, the hoard go nuts scooping everything up. Classic example from recent is the Tumbler... Target had over 1000 pieces available on their eBay store and it vanished in a few days. With people sitting on 10,20,30,50+ copies, it will be hard to see sets going for over $1000 anytime soon. Only way is if Lego surprise us by ending a product out of the blue with a drought in supply prior to pulling the plug.

Edited April 15, 2016 by tacsniper

[fossilrock]

I think I said that. That's why I said if I see it go over the 150 seller mark by christmas, I'll suspect another slow grind.  Scroll up a couple posts, and I said it clear as day..  I will buy a couple more sandcrawlers, but this is another set, where I do wonder if it better to invest in another UCS, or just spend the same amount of money on smaller sets. 

Just like last year, it would have been much better to buy 2 at-at's when it sunk into the upper 80's, then buying every UCS Red 5. Especially if you wanted to cash out in less than a year.  Same could be said for sets like Anakins interceptor or the GGWB.  The market has definitely shifted and quickly.

Edited April 15, 2016 by fossilrock

[Deanfjr]

I would not think the SC (released 2014) will retire before EV (released 2013) considering EV has been out longer, I am banking on EV going out first. Just makes logical sense to me, but I guess you can never predict with Lego and their rhyme or reasons. If the SC would go first It could be due to it selling less than EV, if that's the case then it is a no brainer to scoop up.

[jeff_14]

Pet Shop is "temporarily out of stock" on SAH and I could not find any at 2 bricks and mortar stores this week. There wasn't even a home for them there any more. Still available at TRU and Walmart online for now. 

[Sharkbait]

7 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

Pet Shop is "temporarily out of stock" on SAH and I could not find any at 2 bricks and mortar stores this week. There wasn't even a home for them there any more. Still available at TRU and Walmart online for now. 

Pet shop is supposedly on a hiatus, like Ewok Village was, and like Wall-E is as well. 

Edited April 15, 2016 by Bags751

[JRandall]

On ‎4‎/‎1‎/‎2016 at 3:20 PM, JLEW700 said:

For all the conspiracy theorist out there.  I Went to the Lego store today and they threw a magazine in my bag.  In the magazine was the attached comic.  Is this Legos way of foreshadowing?

That tells me all I need to know, time to clear wall space.  While I'm at it, I'll probably stock up on a few dozen more modulars, just in case they retire by 2025.

[fossilrock]

40 minutes ago, Deanfjr said:

I would not think the SC (released 2014) will retire before EV (released 2013) considering EV has been out longer, I am banking on EV going out first. Just makes logical sense to me, but I guess you can never predict with Lego and their rhyme or reasons. If the SC would go first It could be due to it selling less than EV, if that's the case then it is a no brainer to scoop up.

2015, Death Star and Red 5 X-wing Retired in Europe.  I don't think Red5 retired in the US yet, but it's pretty much looking like a retiree. 

Supposedly there is a new UCS snowspeeder, and a new UCS death star coming out.  So, I suspect we will see EV, and SC go by the end of the year.  Once again, a:

[SLL]

On 4/15/2016 at 10:30 AM, Bags751 said:

 

Pet shop is supposedly on a hiatus, like Ewok Village was, and like Wall-E is as well. 

so Wall-E will be retired this year?

[mudcatsfan]

Just now, superlegolover said:

so Wall-E will be retired this year?

No Hiatus means it will be returning

[dcdfan]

No Hiatus means it will be returning

If no hiatus means it will be returning, does hiatus mean it's not...?

[Phil B]

5 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

No Hiatus means it will be returning

Hiatus is the speculated "time-out" for certain sets when they have been sold at conditions that are outside of what LEGO dictated (e.g. Sale pricing on exclusives). Or at least that's what the rumor is that several of us have heard.