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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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1 hour ago, mauro23 said:

OK, I think I have to clarify you how LEGO defines a Star Wars UCS Set - I have sent an email regarding this question to LEGO two weeks ago. Two days later I have got the answer.

They have given me a link to Brickset UCS list:

http://brickset.com/sets/theme-Star-Wars/subtheme-Ultimate-Collector-Series

This list is almost the same as the green entries in table above. The unique exception is the 10188 Death Star. It is listed also as an UCS set in the Brickset list - I don't know why because few years ago it was definitely NOT in this list. I can remember it really good as I have pointed this out to BrickLink catalog admins to change this fact and they have removed this Death Star from UCS list on BrickLink to usual Star Wars set.

So the green entries in table above are exactly the same as the UCS list on BrickLink and in my eyes this is really the true list. I assume that LEGO itself is not aware of the change with the Death Star 10188 to an UCS set and they still give the people this list as the correct one.

Mauro

Well, nothing really has been clarified to this point. There is a list - but where is the clarification?

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1 minute ago, rfish said:

Well, nothing really has been clarified to this point. There is a list - but where is the clarification?

Sure, LEGO clarifies a Star Wars UCS set pointing out to an external UCS list. In my opinion they simply don't know it by themselves...

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8 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

Sure, LEGO clarifies a Star Wars UCS set pointing out to an external UCS list. In my opinion they simply don't know it by themselves...

That is what I think, too. And the question is ... does it really matter? Large, detailed and expensive sets under the Star Wars Label firstly run as "exclusives" when they are released. A real fan knows, what is an exclusive or UCS or similar type of thing and therefore is willing to pay whatever it needs to add a certain set to his collection.

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28 minutes ago, Ensche said:

That is what I think, too. And the question is ... does it really matter? Large, detailed and expensive sets under the Star Wars Label firstly run as "exclusives" when they are released. A real fan knows, what is an exclusive or UCS or similar type of thing and therefore is willing to pay whatever it needs to add a certain set to his collection.

We can all somewhat agree on that. I initially steered the conversation into this because from the data gathered and from the words of a Lego designer, there seemed to be a maximum of two of these sets for any given year (with 2002 being an outlier). Now we have three announced for 2016. 

I didn't expect this to go that off topic, but regarding EOL, the years to come we will either reveal:

1. That 2016 is another outlier (like 2002)

2. That there will be more UCS (or UCS sized) sets available at any time

3. That the availability of the larger sets will be reduced in time due to a higher turnover. 

 

Edited by Pomodoro
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2 minutes ago, Pomodoro said:

3. That the availability of the larger sets will be reduced in time due to a higher turnover. 

This. I think LEGO realised that the core audience of exclusives acquires the desired sets within 1-2 year of release. After that sales stagnate and mostly driven by dark age coming-outs and investors. Thus high turnover of sets may be more profitable.

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58 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Thought this thread was retirement speculation not "what sets we think are UCS open speculation".....

Gonna throw out there that Speed Champions series 1 will be pulled (or at least part of the series) when Series 2 comes out in March. Any takers?

 

McLaren P1 has been sold out at TRU now for like 2 weeks so I believe it.  I'm hoping for a blowout sale at USA LEGO Shop at Home - wishful thinking.  Seems like all the first racers and the Mercedes Pit stop and Porsche Finish line could be on the chopping block with similar priced new sets coming up.

TRU has all the new sets at MRSP right now (though not for sale) but I'm sure that will change when they are released.

 

Edited by cladner
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Ok people, follow me here for a second...  As far as the UCS designation is concerned, I would honestly put up the non star wars UCS sets as well...  Only because there have been a couple that many would deem 'UCS', such as the Tumbler, and the Helicarrier, and if you reallyyyy want to get technical even the Maersk Container ship (seeing as it has a plaque as well.)

Now if you add those in, you actually have 2 UCS sets for 2014, and 3 for 2015.  With regards to Lego, I doubt they truly know either, because the UCS sticker has extended beyond the Star Wars theme, so who honestly knows.

Now for the on topic part... Which brings me to my belief about a set retirement at some point.  I think if there are going to be 3 'UCS' sets slated for this year, I would think that not only 'should' the Ewok Village go, but I think the Sandcrawler, and the Helicarrier should go as well.  I mention the helicarrier, because it honestly appears to be a pretty slow seller.  Like I mentioned in the what did you buy, I've bought an insane amounts of sets, and I looked at all the seal codes for the big ones, and with the exception of two, most were in the 50sR5 for seal codes.  Pretty fresh.  The two exceptions are the Crawler crane, and the Helicarrier.  The crawler crane had I believe it was something like 42R5, and even more surprising was the Helicarrier which had a seal code of 30R5.  So we are talking a pretty old set that's been sitting in my local Lego store for a while now.  So IMO, I would not be surprised if the Helicarrier doesn't last until next year, and could end up being another Tumbler, with a short shelf life.

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16 minutes ago, citymorgue said:

So IMO, I would not be surprised if the Helicarrier doesn't last until next year, and could end up being another Tumbler, with a short shelf life.

I can see the helicarrier going sometime after Civil War, MCU moves away from the core avengers until 2018 (Dr Strange, GOTG2, Thor).  I know not everything is aligned to movie schedules, but with all of the other factors, no movie presence is likely the proverbial straw.   

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2 hours ago, citymorgue said:

 

 

I posted this yesterday in the what did you buy thread, but i'll post it here as well as there's some more recent date seals.

  22 hours ago, TheGallows said:

Went to the Lego store today didn't end up buying anything but checked some date codes while I was here.

EV 04S6

MINI 0106

T1 51S5

TB 51S5

SOH 49S5

PC 39S5

PR 51S5

SLAVE 46S5

SHC 43S5

IR 45S5?

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2 minutes ago, TheGallows said:

I posted this yesterday in the what did you buy thread, but i'll post it here as well as there's some more recent date seals.

Went to the Lego store today didn't end up buying anything but checked some date codes while I was here.

EV 04S6

MINI 0106

T1 51S5

TB 51S5

SOH 49S5

PC 39S5

PR 51S5

SLAVE 46S5

SHC 43S5

IR 45S5?

This is horrible... EV still in production this year??? It should have finished!!!

SOH - it looked that they just sold the rest of production, no new box, so i hoped it will finish soon, but they are still producing it. OMG.

T1, TB - got new boxes, so i expected futher production, but still hoped that it will finally go to EOL after neverending 5 years life.

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With the rumored(?) Hoth set coming out this year, does anyone think LEGO Star Wars Snowspeeder (75074) which came out in January 2015 could be retiring soon?  The 75030 Millennium Falcon microfighter was released in Feb 2014 and retired in May 2015.  This would mean that an April / May 2016 retirement date for it could be likely.  If it does, what do you think the future value might be here say a year out from retirement?

Edited by rlangston77
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