Retiring Soon - open speculation

[chipbee]

1 hour ago, citymorgue said:

One last thing, isn't this site about helping each other out and passing information along? I mean this is an investing site.  And I understand the selfishness of some of you guys who don't like all the new investors, but that's just a reality of life.  News is going to get out, and the hoard will do it's thing like it has the last couple of years.

I love new investors. Without new investors the lego investment is over. And the more new investors earn, the more they will spread the gospel of lego investing that will further support the prices of retired sets.

Hating new investors is like hating children. It is completely irrational and against the long term interest of the entire community.

[gbg108]

7 hours ago, Achilles said:

I'm not saying it's NOT retiring this year, but since Sandcrawler is 5 avaialble to order max, and a set like Ewok Village is 1, I'd say the clock is ticking harder on Ewok Village.

I know those numbers aren't ALWAYS meaningful, but something being 5 to an order almost always means it's going to be around a while. And as things get closer to disappearing (Tumbler, Maersk, etc -) they tend to drop down to 1. 

I also find the Hellicarrier an interesting case, it's been 1 to order for the most part from the getgo, and rumors of it going due to be a poor seller have been floating around. The Tumbler was only around a little more than a year, so I don't think the Heli having the same fate is out of the realm.

For SC I think you could make a compelling case either way based on it having a limit 5 at US LEGO Shop at Home.  A high limit could mean that there is existing stock and another production run is imminent or it could mean the set is done and TLG is trying to clear out remaining stock without having a sale. Also SC has an expected ship date of March 1st in Europe, which could back up the theory of another production run. However it's limit one in the EU so it could also be that they clearing out existing US inventory by moving it to Europe. Place bets as you will.

[zskid00]

I think some people take things too personally when others don't agree with their opinion or speculation about a set retiring.  A lot of time my response is to "pump the brakes" because even though a set may show some signs of retirement or doing "the dance" (of which we haven't observed much consistency) it can often be a false alarm or a set will still be available 6 months to a year from that time.  At the end of the day it doesn't really matter, because the more people that don't agree or act on the information you have presented, the better your position will be post-retirement.

Edited February 5, 2016 by zskid00

[thegooch49]

11 minutes ago, chipbee said:

I love new investors. Without new investors the lego investment is over. And the more new investors earn, the more they will spread the gospel of lego investing that will further support the prices of retired sets.

Hating new investors is like hating children. It is completely irrational and against the long term interest of the entire community.

I respectfully disagree chipbee. The more supply there is of 'rare' sets, the lower we can all charge for our product. This is capitalism, and simple economics. If we are talking about investors buying off other investors, that's one thing. But in the long term, more investors means more competition to sell, and more competition to buy at a discount. I see it as meaning I'll pay more to purchase my product (since I have to compete with more people to buy it), and potentially sell it for less (because new investors have bought 20 tumblers).

[Flippingbricks]

Well i kept waiting and waiting on the Tumbler lost track of it and now its sold out. Not going make that mistake with this set. Personally think its one of the best sets out in the Starwars theme  right nowas a fan. Going pick one up later today for my personal collection and hopefully after that will be able to stock a few In the coming weeks for later

[rlangston77]

4 minutes ago, Flippingbricks said:

Well i kept waiting and waiting on the Tumbler lost track of it and now its sold out. Not going make that mistake with this set. Personally think its one of the best sets out in the Starwars theme  right nowas a fan. Going pick one up later today for my personal collection and hopefully after that will be able to stock a few In the coming weeks for later

Would you mind stating which set you're talking about?  Ewok or Sand Crawler I'm assuming since that is what people are debating most.

[dcdfan]

Well i kept waiting and waiting on the Tumbler lost track of it and now its sold out. Not going make that mistake with this set. Personally think its one of the best sets out in the Starwars theme  right nowas a fan. Going pick one up later today for my personal collection and hopefully after that will be able to stock a few In the coming weeks for later

You could always make a trade with someone here...

[Flippingbricks]

Sand Crawler is first on my list cause I  like that set better than the ewok village but i will get EV too. Would just be more upset with myself if Sand Crawler leaves and I miss out than if EV leaves.

[Darth_Raichu]

1 hour ago, chipbee said:

I love new investors. Without new investors the lego investment is over. And the more new investors earn, the more they will spread the gospel of lego investing that will further support the prices of retired sets.

Hating new investors is like hating children. It is completely irrational and against the long term interest of the entire community.

Lets see how long you hold that opinion when 1-2 people in your area decide to be your direct competition, then 6, then 10.  Singapore is not that big  

[fossilrock]

1 hour ago, MarxMarvelous said:

Yeah that was 6 months ago. And it is still available everywhere. Can you ever admit when you are wrong? And btw, if you don't like what I have to say to you, quit dragging me into your spats out of the blue.

Still have horrendous reading comprehension issues, I see.  I stated in my prediction that the Sandcrawler will more than likely start to become scarce by it's two year mark (may 4th, 2016). We are still under that date, but it is starting to fall out of stock at major retailers.  There were similar patterns with other sets once a set begins it's dance.  It's now out of stock at amazon, and target.  Went out of stock at walmart, which left only S&H yesterday, but I believe it came back in at walmart.  So the dance is definitely in full swing now.  When I first made my comment I said it was just stepping onto the floor. 

Amazingly, now you even say you think it's going.

I will say this, since I believe in this thing called evolution, I think business practices are evolving too, and as we saw with Red 5 last year, where it was mostly out of stock from spring into summer last year, then lego threw out some ongoing production runs, the same could very much happen to this one.  If lego would have never had those ongoing production runs on the red 5 after spring of last year, it probably would be over 400.00 right now.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sandcrawler hard to find after 2xvip for some time.  Then maybe see it come back in for some minor production runs (like red 5) until it's retired, or they just let it go off into the sunset, since of course they have 3 more exclusives coming down the pipe.

It wouldn't shock me to see the hoard go bonkers on this over the next few weeks, and then lego fires up a few more production runs, and keeps it even longer. 

Regardless, my whole point was for those that care, is when a set first starts it's dance. ... that's when it's smart to start being that tortoise investor, if you want to accumulate enough especially when it's at more locations than just LEGO Shop at Home (right now, after LEGO Shop at Home you just have wallyworld).  What can never be predicted is if it will just one day be gone, and not have another production run.  Red 5, TOO, and a few others did not go that way, while the Sea Cow did.  We all see which set flew up in price at EOL.  So, if the Sancrawler gets more production runs, it's potential starts to get limited with each run.  Regardless, if those production runs are only available at LEGO Shop at Home then it will be hard for many to obtain more than 5 if they are just beginning to stock them, unless they want to test the ban hammer.  That's why it's kinda important to pay attention to that first dance step, so that you can also acquire them at other retailers before they go out of stock.  Spreading out the purchases along multiple retailers is important, otherwise you could face banishment at either Target, TRU, Lego LEGO Shop at Home.  And if it's only left at amazon well that comes with limits too.

Compehende' yet, markie mark?

Edited February 5, 2016 by fossilrock

[chipbee]

2 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Lets see how long you hold that opinion when 1-2 people in your area decide to be your direct competition, then 6, then 10.  Singapore is not that big  

I sell to many new investors and this keeps me in this game. There is no need to worry about newbies because they replaces the oldies who leave the game. The newbies will also form the main buyers of retired sets, and many are building the sets too.

It is like a country or city where there will be people moving out or dying off. The key of sustaining the economy is to maintain or grow the population. The younger folks are going to be buying your properties when you want to cash out and downsize at retirement. So i love the new investors.

[JLEW700]

Are we not allowed to ask questions about retiring sets in this thread?

I asked " How long do people think we have to pick up the Ecto-1 with the announcement of the female version of the car? "  and my post was moved to the "Rumor - 75828 - 2016 Lego Ghostbusters Ecto-1 Reboot Set Placeholder for the 2016 film" thread.  

[Darth_Raichu]

1 minute ago, JLEW700 said:

Are we not allowed to ask questions about retiring sets in this thread?

I asked " How long do people think we have to pick up the Ecto-1 with the announcement of the female version of the car? "  and my post was moved to the "Rumor - 75828 - 2016 Lego Ghostbusters Ecto-1 Reboot Set Placeholder for the 2016 film" thread.  

No, feel free to ask. I moved the picture there and was going to ask you to repost your question here.  But then I got distracted by other pictures of new GB sets  

[JLEW700]

1 minute ago, Darth_Raichu said:

No, feel free to ask. I moved the picture there and was going to ask you to repost your question here.  But then I got distracted by other pictures of new GB sets  

Ah.  gotcha.  Thank you for clarifying.

So my original question:  How long do people think we have to pick up the Ecto-1 with the announcement of the female version of the car?

Maybe 4-5 months???

Edited February 5, 2016 by JLEW700

[Phil B]

2 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

No, feel free to ask. I moved the picture there and was going to ask you to repost your question here.  But then I got distracted by other pictures of new GB sets  

So moderators ARE human after all .....

 

[Darth_Raichu]

1 minute ago, Phil B said:

So moderators ARE human after all .....

 

Well, the gods in Greek mythology got easily distracted by new things too

[Phil B]

8 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Well, the gods in Greek mythology got easily distracted by new things too

"things" I believe their prime obsession was with the opposite gender ....

 

[Veegs]

9 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Well, the gods in Greek mythology got easily distracted by new things too

They were drunk all the time!

On topic - hard to see Ideas Ecto-1 on the shelf at the same time as the launch of new sets. I'd guess/hope they want to push new merchandise.

[Darth_Raichu]

2 minutes ago, Phil B said:

"things" I believe their prime obsession was with the opposite gender ....

Lol once those "immortals" lived long enough, humans became things to conquer, collect, and/or *bleep* around for them

[Phil B]

3 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Lol once those "immortals" lived long enough, humans became things to conquer, collect, and/or *bleep* around for them

Sort of like LEGO minifigs (apart from the *bleep* part, though I'm by no means judging anyone's sexual preferences here ) ...

[Crustybeaver]

45 minutes ago, JLEW700 said:

How long do people think we have to pick up the Ecto-1 with the announcement of the female version of the car?

Maybe 4-5 months???

You asked the question and answered it all in the same post

[Roy vd M.]

But it was way better in 2005 than in 2000. 

This isn't a game of absolutes or continuity. 

 

Anyway, for the ontopic bit: 75058 MTT sold out today in Europe Shop at Home. It had already been sold out in the US. So this set will probably retire quite soon. 

[HandyHand]

8 hours ago, Roy vd M. said:

Anyway, for the ontopic bit: 75058 MTT sold out today in Europe Shop at Home. It had already been sold out in the US. So this set will probably retire quite soon. 

Roy, MTT had already been retired in Europe. It was just a very small batch (returns) that became available again at LEGO Shop at Home. To get rid of it fast LEGO discounted it down by 50%. That worked. Same with the Brick Bounty.

Edited February 6, 2016 by Haay

[Roy vd M.]

4 hours ago, Haay said:

Roy, MTT had already been retired in Europe. It was just a very small batch (returns) that became available again at LEGO Shop at Home. To get rid of it fast LEGO discounted it down by 50%. That worked. Same with the Brick Bounty.

I know, as you can read in my blog. 

Actually beginning January I got one for 33% off after it became briefly available, but then I got a mail that it was out of stock so the order was cancelled. Then I learned news that it became back 'temporarily' out of stock. Then I saw it discounted again, 50% this time... but out of stock. And finally to my frustration I saw it became in fact available for a short while.

of course I was too late... 

So I'm well acquainted with the life of this set... First wanted to warn you and others who said they successfully ordered one, but decided against it to keep up the good spirits. Now it really seems you got one, in which case I really have to congratulate you on a very good deal.

 

[HandyHand]

1 hour ago, Roy vd M. said:

I know, as you can read in my blog. 

Actually beginning January I got one for 33% off after it became briefly available, but then I got a mail that it was out of stock so the order was cancelled. Then I learned news that it became back 'temporarily' out of stock. Then I saw it discounted again, 50% this time... but out of stock. And finally to my frustration I saw it became in fact available for a short while.

of course I was too late... 

So I'm well acquainted with the life of this set... First wanted to warn you and others who said they successfully ordered one, but decided against it to keep up the good spirits. Now it really seems you got one, in which case I really have to congratulate you on a very good deal.

Ah, then I misunderstood your earlier remark. And you're welcome.  I guess I was just really lucky this time where I lucked out at other times. You win some and you lose some, right?  

The MTT itself is still status "In Warehouse", but the Nexo Knights free promos Robin's Mini Fortrex and the odd Battlestation (?) I received today already, sent together with one Series-15 Minifig which I had ordered to pass the €55 free shipping level.