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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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40 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

Or Valentine's Dinner was just the more appealing set.

I don't think that any of the holiday sets this year will sell too well this year. The vignettes will be hard series to be at at $10. The main reason I see, is the inclusion of minifigures. The animals are 'cute', but have limited appeal. The minifigures in the 2015 sets were awesome, and made these MUCH more appealing. 

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45 minutes ago, thegooch49 said:

I don't think that any of the holiday sets this year will sell too well this year. The vignettes will be hard series to be at at $10. The main reason I see, is the inclusion of minifigures. The animals are 'cute', but have limited appeal. The minifigures in the 2015 sets were awesome, and made these MUCH more appealing. 

In my opinion, the upcoming Easter set 40202 "Ugly Duckling" (not the official name) isn't even cute. So I don't have a problem skipping these.

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I don't think that any of the holiday sets this year will sell too well this year. The vignettes will be hard series to be at at $10. The main reason I see, is the inclusion of minifigures. The animals are 'cute', but have limited appeal. The minifigures in the 2015 sets were awesome, and made these MUCH more appealing. 

Second. Minifigures allow you to change around the scene while it's on display for the holiday. Once you build your puppy (or turkey, or bat etc) it just sits there. There is much more fun to be had with the vignettes. Let's hope for a course-correction before next year...

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So, it's well documented that the Lego Catalog is NOT an indicator of retirement.

However i thought I'd share some observations since this is a speculation topic :)

it was interesting that the 4 new Force Awakens sets in the January catalog pushed out the Poe's Xwing (and only the Poe's Xwing) from the force awakens sets. I do not believe it's going away though as we've seen December seal codes in both the US 48R5 and UK 51S5

The FA constraction sets pushed out the OT constraction sets, which makes sense, but it doesn't mean they're leaving the shelves. However if you like them, i'd say grab some before they announce a third wave. I especially like the 2 packs.

The really odd thing is that there are no Star Wars UCS sets in the January catalog at all. Not sure i've ever seen that. I don't see when the Death Star and Xwing and Ewok Village made their last appearance, but they seem to have been absent from the last 3 at least (January, Late Holiday, and Holiday catalogs). Only the Slave I, Tie Fighter, and Sand Crawler have been in there and that was during the 2 holiday catalogs.

Also of note was that the Tumbler disappeared from Holiday to January, and in fact it's gone. 

So the catalog means NOTHING, except when it means something :)

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I think Poe's X-wing requires no advertising at this point. Same with the UCS sets. They can't send out novels, so they focus on what needs attention. Citing times the catalog is an accurate indicator is no different than applauding someone who got one retirement right out of the 5 they guessed. 

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9 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

So, it's well documented that the Lego Catalog is NOT an indicator of retirement.

(...)

 

No indicator at all? I'm not saying that catalogs are the Holy Grail of retirement prediction or that they contain any dependable information.

But maybe you want to check out my holiday catalog observations:

 

 

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3 hours ago, Wildemar said:

 

No indicator at all? I'm not saying that catalogs are the Holy Grail of retirement prediction or that they contain any dependable information.

But maybe you want to check out my holiday catalog observations:

 

 

Maybe it wasn't clear from my post but I'm making the exact same point you are. The catalog is not a perfect barometer but it sure did give some hints that turned out to be true.

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13 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

Maybe it wasn't clear from my post but I'm making the exact same point you are. The catalog is not a perfect barometer but it sure did give some hints that turned out to be true.

Sorry, I often just skim through posts - there are just too many of them - and sometimes information gets lost (in translation also since not being a mother-tongue speaker doesn't help either ;) ). After reading your whole post and conclusion, all I can say is 'cheers, mate'! :drinks:

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13 hours ago, Mos_Eisley said:

I think Poe's X-wing requires no advertising at this point. Same with the UCS sets. They can't send out novels, so they focus on what needs attention. Citing times the catalog is an accurate indicator is no different than applauding someone who got one retirement right out of the 5 they guessed. 

But this theory would go both ways. If they are low on inventory and there is no production scheduled, why include it in the catalog?

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But this theory would go both ways. If they are low on inventory and there is no production scheduled, why include it in the catalog?

Some sets don't need Ads since most fans already know about them or will be reminded due to countless tv spotlights, online presence or through other sets.

Lego has also used the catalog for prob reminding fans about sets to buy reminder stock (e.g. SSD). Lego is savvy like that given the limited # of pages each catalog has.

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16 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

The sands of time are running low...

I am not exactly sure what you mean ? lol

But i will say and I am not doing a Red Five all over again in promoting

there is only one place that has any "sand" at this "time"

the sands of time slipped through most peoples fingers like a cow going out to see what is at sea

over and out

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When I see the complete lack of posts it reminds me that most everyone emptied their life savings into the tumbler .....

No one wants old bessie Lego Star Wars or not it makes me feel like it is outside of the world of what people want to buy

Sort of like a stack of bessie is sitting on the side ready to buy but everyone ignores it and are acting like Alexander.....

"When Alexander saw the breadth of his Lego domain, he wept for there were no more UCS sets to conquer."

Lack of interest in bessie not withstanding

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When I see the complete lack of posts it reminds me that most everyone emptied their life savings into the tumbler .....

No one wants old bessie Lego Star Wars or not it makes me feel like it is outside of the world of what people want to buy

Sort of like a stack of bessie is sitting on the side ready to buy but everyone ignores it and are acting like Alexander.....

"When Alexander saw the breadth of his Lego domain, he wept for there were no more UCS sets to conquer."

Lack of interest in bessie not withstanding

Bessie...help a poor italian BPer....who's Bessie? Forgive me

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