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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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7 hours ago, Haay said:

I couldn't agree more, @Veegs. The Advanced Modular buildings are just not interesting any longer as investment sets. Sure, after retirement they will rise in price a bit, but hardly enough to even cover the costs and efforts you'll have to actually sell them through eBay or similar platform.

I only have 1 each of the PS, PC and PR for my own future building enjoyment. Stocking up on them is a waste of my money which I could put into better (under-appreciated) sets. :) 

Yeap, this is exactly how the invisible hand works. Some will decide that it is no longer worthwhile and leave the game. The lego exclusive market is self regulating because sets are huge so storage is a headache, and selling them takes some effort. If only the exclusive sets are as easy to handle like beanies.

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2 hours ago, justapilgrim said:

Pretty sure avengers tower will be retired when current stock sells out. Clearanced everywhere, I think licence will lapse in time for civil war. I don't think they want all the old sets lingering with new stuff available

The number of collectors that buy multiples to make their Towers larger speaks well for this set after retirement, IMO. But the license won't lapse, if it did, there would be no Captain America sets forthcoming.

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1 hour ago, chipbee said:

Yeap, this is exactly how the invisible hand works. Some will decide that it is no longer worthwhile and leave the game. The lego exclusive market is self regulating because sets are huge so storage is a headache, and selling them takes some effort. If only the exclusive sets are as easy to handle like beanies.

No need to leave 'the game' (I'm expanding operations at the moment, in fact) just don't know that adding any more PS or PC until the fall is worthwhile, and maybe not even then. At this point, I might leave it up to F5 when I'm pretty sure the Sold Out on S&H will stick for good. It would be nice if Europe would retire a whole bunch of awesome sets again this fall and leave me time to go absolutely nuts on sets that were almost guaranteed to retire shortly.

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13 minutes ago, Veegs said:

No need to leave 'the game' (I'm expanding operations at the moment, in fact) just don't know that adding any more PS or PC until the fall is worthwhile, and maybe not even then. At this point, I might leave it up to F5 when I'm pretty sure the Sold Out on S&H will stick for good. It would be nice if Europe would retire a whole bunch of awesome sets again this fall and leave me time to go absolutely nuts on sets that were almost guaranteed to retire shortly.

For all we know, many of the major sets listed as "Sold Out" are currently in production and will hit the shelves again in the next 2 months.  Every store I visited after Christmas had a near bare bones LEGO isle, so I believe LEGO could not handle the demand of this years holiday season and sold out earlier than expected.

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10 hours ago, Haay said:

I couldn't agree more, @Veegs. The Advanced Modular buildings are just not interesting any longer as investment sets. Sure, after retirement they will rise in price a bit, but hardly enough to even cover the costs and efforts you'll have to actually sell them through eBay or similar platform.

I only have 1 each of the PS, PC and PR for my own future building enjoyment. Stocking up on them is a waste of my money which I could put into better (under-appreciated) sets. :) 

Absolutely true. Modulars are a bad investment. Do not waste your time on these. Absolutely. Best post of the day.

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11 minutes ago, Yinchuan said:

Absolutely true. Modulars are a bad investment. Do not waste your time on these. Absolutely. Best post of the day.

If this post will keep investors and resellers away from modulars and leave them for me......best post of the day.

Edited by Lordoflego
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I can't speak for all adults, but that was certainly the case for me. Luckily I emerged from my dark ages in time to get the early modulars and 10184 Town Plan before they retired. Unfortunately I did not have the foresight to buy multiples of them as investments.

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3 hours ago, TheLegoFan said:

So, thoughts on whether the Pet Shop or Parisian Restaurant will be retiring this year? I'm still having trouble on what to buy between them. 

Seriously! Read through the forum, check out the respective threads for Pet Shop, Parisian Restaurant as well as the current thread, and you'll find masses of thoughts. Every couple of hours there's at least one Brickpicker who has thoughts on these sets' due retirement. 

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3 hours ago, TheLegoFan said:

So, thoughts on whether the Pet Shop or Parisian Restaurant will be retiring this year? I'm still having trouble on what to buy between them. According to Brickpicker data, the value of the Pet Shop and Parisian Restaurants are going down. Does this mean they won't last the summer?

I'm going to mirror Roy's views here. No one on this site has 'the knowledge'. What we gain is experience and a better understanding based on patterns. Trying to anticipate retirements for modulars, UCS and Advanced Creator sets is tricky as a number of factors come into play and can easily affect their decision as to whether they are retired or kept in production. You should spend some time on the site reading threads and compiling your own analysis and from that develop your own conclusions. This way you're better set to your own budget, timeframe and expectations. 

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19 minutes ago, Roy vd M. said:

Not too interesting for most of y'all, but worth mentioning:

70227 ('large Chima set') was 50% off at Lego Shop at Home, after being 33% off from the 2nd of January, now is marked 'sold out'. Plus, the Chima-theme has ended... so this one will be retired soon. 

It's marked "Sold Out"(Red) in the US, and so is 70147 (Sir Fangar's Ice Fortress), which is the set LEGO put on 70% off last week. Both are likely marked Retired soon. Also, 70226 (Mammoth's Frozen Stronghold) and 70145 (Maula's Ice Stomper) are both "Sold Out"(Red), which are the other two large Chima sets, which leaves 70146 Phoenix Flying Temple as the only still available large Chima set on LEGO LEGO Shop at Home. That one is currently marked down 30%.

I'm sure this means Chima is done, though it will take months for all the Chima left at retailers to disappear. Frequent trips to TJ Maxx for me to see if I can score any for my son at >70% off :)

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Couple of things I saw at my local logo shop. Tower Bridge had been removed from the shelf. I asked and they said they have a couple in but they removed the display box due to it being tatty. (I can testify to the box being tatty having seen it the week before.)

I know there has been lots of talk about X-Wings but I could not see poe's X-Wing there at all having been previously calm about its availability I am now watching closely.

 

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10 minutes ago, Metin said:

Couple of things I saw at my local logo shop. Tower Bridge had been removed from the shelf. I asked and they said they have a couple in but they removed the display box due to it being tatty. (I can testify to the box being tatty having seen it the week before.)

I know there has been lots of talk about X-Wings but I could not see poe's X-Wing there at all having been previously calm about its availability I am now watching closely.

So what's your conclusion or speculation?

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On 1/20/2016 at 9:11 PM, Yinchuan said:

Absolutely true. Modulars are a bad investment. Do not waste your time on these. Absolutely. Best post of the day.

Modulars are not a 'bad' investment, somewhat of a glib interpretation of my post as well as Yinchuan's. For the majority of investors, stocking up on them right now might not be the best use of their resources (space/capital), that's all. I'm sure for Darin or Emazers or other investors who aim to get 30 or more of every large set that every month is a good month to buy, but that isn't the reality for most.

I can tell you I've sold 20 AT-ATs in the last thirty days and one modular (if we even consider HH a modular). I would have been better off putting modular money from last year into at-at and ISDs as I could sell now and still get Pet Shops if I wanted them. Now, to find the next at-at....

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