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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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7 hours ago, rlangston77 said:

I like the prospects of the Ewok Village retiring this year, but it is not really a "display" model like the UC line of star wars models.  I wonder if that will effect it's resale value.  It's not a ship, it's more of a scene and im curious if that will cause it to not rise very high.  Although some of the larger lord of the rings scenes and the Smaug set have gone up pretty good.

Also, I saw the Slave 1 in person last night at the Lego store...man that thing is big and awesome.  Whenever that retires it is going to go up significantly.

I would hazard a guess that "scene" sets in general are not entirely bad, so long as the set looks complete from all angles. What many people do not like is an open/incomplete back like many of play sets such as superheroes and friends. Arkham Asylum and Tower of Orthanc comes to mind.

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10 minutes ago, Battrax said:

These questions really should be directed to the Deal or no Deal subforum. Now, for the 42009 there is a thread:

The mods have agreed to start hiding rlangston77's questions until he/she starts directing them to the correct threads.  He/she has been directed multiple times and thank you forum members for trying to steer a new member in the right direction.

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I asked a Lego expert about the 10218 Pet Shop and it said:

It sounds amazing that you are one of our big fans of this amazing series of LEGO® Modular Buildings.

In our LEGO Creator Series, that includes the new Brick Bank, Parisian Restaurant, Pet Shop etc is having an order of retirements usually after 3 years on the market. So some of the sets might even retire together, depending on the time they have be released and usually it would also be at the end of the year so to say December. However this will all come down to the availability of the products in the last few months.

This is the reason why we never know exactly when the products will retire. The Pet Shop - 10218 is schedule to be on the market for the whole of 2016, however again it depends on the sales of this product. 

_______________________________________

Does this mean it should be safe to buy during May or June? It's because I'm having trouble choosing between the Pet Shop and the Parisian Restaurant. 

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On 16 January 2016 at 10:10 AM, Haay said:

Just received my LEGO Shop at Home order of the 10243 Parisian Restaurant, which became available again in LEGO Shop at Home Europe after having been TOOS for a while. To my surprise the sealcode is: 37S5 which is older than a previous order last year of the PR which has a sealcode of 45S5. I had assumed it would have a newer production code! Interesting...

Just saw a few PRs in Lego Shop with 51S5 seal codes. So there goes that theory.  Actually a lot of sets now appearing came off the production line that same week. Looks like the production line was in full swing between Xmas and New Years.  Saw Ecto 1s, PS, EV, Slave 1 all with the same code. 

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29 minutes ago, LahH001 said:

Just saw a few PRs in Lego Shop with 51S5 seal codes. So there goes that theory.  Actually a lot of sets now appearing came off the production line that same week. Looks like the production line was in full swing between Xmas and New Years.  Saw Ecto 1s, PS, EV, Slave 1 all with the same code. 

51R5 for Sydney Opera House and Strategic Homeland Intervention Enforcement & Logistics Division Helicarrier too.

47R5 for Simpsons House.

Catering to the anti-acronym crowd today obviously...

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17 hours ago, TheLegoFan said:

I asked a Lego expert about the 10218 Pet Shop and it said:

It sounds amazing that you are one of our big fans of this amazing series of LEGO® Modular Buildings.

In our LEGO Creator Series, that includes the new Brick Bank, Parisian Restaurant, Pet Shop etc is having an order of retirements usually after 3 years on the market. So some of the sets might even retire together, depending on the time they have be released and usually it would also be at the end of the year so to say December. However this will all come down to the availability of the products in the last few months.

This is the reason why we never know exactly when the products will retire. The Pet Shop - 10218 is schedule to be on the market for the whole of 2016, however again it depends on the sales of this product. 

_______________________________________

Does this mean it should be safe to buy during May or June? It's because I'm having trouble choosing between the Pet Shop and the Parisian Restaurant. 

That's quite interesting. So the normal schedule is 3 years, but the precise retirement date also depends on how fast the last production run gets depleted. And PS is clearly an outsider since it was first available in May 2011.

Further analysis: 

The retirement of PS by end of this year, or a bit sooner if the final production batch runs out faster than expected, is more or less confirmed.

PC is from March 2013. So by March 2016 it's been available for 3 years and because it's not a big seller as far as I know, it's highly likely that it will retire in the course of this year. PC might start doing 'the dance' from March onwards, till the last production batch is all sold out and it gets the Retired Product label. Retirement by end of this is year is highly likely.

PR is from January 1st, 2014. By end of December it has gotten its 3 years of availability and it will be on the nomination of getting a retirement at any time. If PR goes EOL before December it will be good news for its future value, but the chance for this happening is not so high I think. Personally I'd guess PR availability will taper off early 2017 and go EOL in Q1 2017.

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12 minutes ago, Haay said:

That's quite interesting. So the normal schedule is 3 years, but the precise retirement date also depends on how fast the last production run gets depleted. And PS is clearly an outsider since it was first available in May 2011.

Further analysis: 

The retirement of PS by end of this year, or a bit sooner if the final production batch runs out faster than expected, is more or less confirmed.

PC is from March 2013. So by March 2016 it's been available for 3 years and because it's not a big seller as far as I know, it's highly likely that it will retire in the course of this year. PC might start doing 'the dance' from March onwards, till the last production batch is all sold out and it gets the Retired Product label. Retirement by end of this is year is highly likely.

PR is from January 1st, 2014. By end of December it has gotten its 3 years of availability and it will be on the nomination of getting a retirement at any time. If PR goes EOL before December it will be good news for its future value, but the chance for this happening is not so high I think. Personally I'd guess PR availability will taper off early 2017 and go EOL in Q1 2017.

 I speculate the customer care person has no idea what they are talking about - no modular has retired after 3 years exactly. Also, all modulars were the best selling exclusives when we had EU data feed. I´m not saying you or the lego person are wrong, just that history so far indicates the contrary or PS too should have gone by now.

I fully expect 2 modular retirements this year, but I said that last year too.

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At this stage of the game, Lego would obviously know that sales of PR will be lower than PC and PS due to resellers focusing their ammo on the latter and not the former.

You gotta ask yourself, have you stocked up on your quota of PR yet? I'd say probably not.

Surely TLG must be factoring that in... but perhaps not, as they are a company that can be quite unpredictable and obfuscate in their retirement decisions.

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4 hours ago, Haay said:

That's quite interesting. So the normal schedule is 3 years, but the precise retirement date also depends on how fast the last production run gets depleted. And PS is clearly an outsider since it was first available in May 2011.

Further analysis: 

The retirement of PS by end of this year, or a bit sooner if the final production batch runs out faster than expected, is more or less confirmed.

PC is from March 2013. So by March 2016 it's been available for 3 years and because it's not a big seller as far as I know, it's highly likely that it will retire in the course of this year. PC might start doing 'the dance' from March onwards, till the last production batch is all sold out and it gets the Retired Product label. Retirement by end of this is year is highly likely.

PR is from January 1st, 2014. By end of December it has gotten its 3 years of availability and it will be on the nomination of getting a retirement at any time. If PR goes EOL before December it will be good news for its future value, but the chance for this happening is not so high I think. Personally I'd guess PR availability will taper off early 2017 and go EOL in Q1 2017.

In this crazy world with investors reading about Lego and immediately buying some, I tend to believe they are buying modulars first (terrible strategy imho for almost all of them) and the sales ranks back me up - or the Brick Bank spurred a run on modulars greater than the runs on several SW sets?

PC isn't a terrible seller, in fact, since I posted an article about not investing in modualrs last week, its sales rank has jumped to 70 in building blocks and PS got a bump to 45. PR is 104 at the moment. With sales like these I no longer think it is a guarantee that any modular retires this year. If Ed and his #chaos are to be believed, sets that sell well will stay. Planning and expecting modulars to retire looks less and less likely. Last year everyone said PS would retire and I even I thought the odds were about 90% it would retire in Q4 2015. Now I'm only about 50% sure it will retire in Q4 2016, and I don't think PC or PR are more likely.

Even IF you want to invest in modulars, it seems insane to do so in January, when all signs point to availability for all of 2016. I'd like to be wrong, believe me, as surprise retirements create profits (usually), but I think TLG might cut other slower selling large sets/exclusives and keep what is selling on the shelves. If investors stopped buying PS worldwide for about eight months, then I'd be more confident in a 2016 retirement. If new investors keep buying up stock like crazy sheep (check the 2015 winter/spring/summer threads) I'm not sold and I'm not tying up extra capital at this point.

Blah, long post. So many sets that are sold out/retired on SAH are still available at retailers and will almost certainly offer a good return by Oct-Dec this year. Why new investors aren't grabbing these, I have no idea. I'm painstakingly hunting a few of these sets down in any and all retailers around me.

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7 minutes ago, steveviscious89 said:

One thing I would worry about is collectors starting to realize that they need to buy the sets they want before they retire, thus making it more difficult for the resellers to  find people to sell to. 

Resellers would have to be organised enough to buy the sets they want before they retire and that doesn´t happen (see SSD and DS) so what chance do mere mortals have?

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16 hours ago, Grynn said:

51R5 for Sydney Opera House and Strategic Homeland Intervention Enforcement & Logistics Division Helicarrier too.

47R5 for Simpsons House.

Catering to the anti-acronym crowd today obviously...

I believe 51R5 and 47R5 are acronyms too.

58 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

If it didn´t happen in the old days when thee were less sets and shelf lives were more predictable, I don´t see it happening now. That one day someone offers a 3d printing replica ervice to do old sets is probably a greater risk,

3D printing cost is too high. To print a modular building cost quite a bit of cash for raw material and printer time. But to print a few rare parts for 10179 is more likely risk.

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8 minutes ago, chipbee said:

I believe 51R5 and 47R5 are acronyms too.

3D printing cost is too high. To print a modular building cost quite a bit of cash for raw material and printer time. But to print a few rare parts for 10179 is more likely risk.

3D printing is not even close to the precision LEGO's machines have. I would not worry for now about that.

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42 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Yes ... stands for fifty one Are five and forty seven Are five.

:)

Abbreviation and/or code is not acronym.

12 minutes ago, chipbee said:

Wrong. The R stands for country of manufacture, and in this case romania?

R = Monterrey, Mexico. So the R isn't even really an abbreviation, let alone acronym.

Edited by biking_tiger
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