Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Roy vd M.]

Wasn't 10240 Red Five retired in Europe? Lego LEGO Shop at Home now says 'sold out' and 'retiring soon'. 

Maybe I'm mistaken about the earlier retired status. 

[Crustybeaver]

26 minutes ago, Roy vd M. said:

Wasn't 10240 Red Five retired in Europe? Lego LEGO Shop at Home now says 'sold out' and 'retiring soon'. 

Maybe I'm mistaken about the earlier retired status. 

I don't recall it being retired here, however it was listed as retiring soon and is now SOLD OUT

[biking_tiger]

This talk of PR early retirement is what filled so many stockrooms with PCs last year.

[rlangston77]

12 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

This talk of PR early retirement is what filled so many stockrooms with PCs last year.

Like I mentioned above, someone told me that the Town Hall was only retired early due to poor sales.  Since PR is selling like crazy it is highly unlikely that it will retire this year.  But you never know.  PC is much more likely I think just due to the fact that it's older.

I can tell you one thing, historically they have had 3 modulars on the market, then retired green grocer and had only 2, shortly after (3 months) they released Pet Shop and had 3 on the market again.  Then they released Town Hall and Palace Cinema to have 5 on the market at the same time, significantly more than previous years.  They then retired Fire Brigade upon releasing PR to maintain 5 on the market.  Town Hall and Grand Emporium were then retired upon the release of Detective Office to to have 4 on the market again (this seems to be a trend, that they want 4 modulars on the market). 

Now, with the release of the Brick Bank we have 5 sets again...Typically historically it is within less than 3 months of the new set hitting that previous sets (Often 1, sometimes 2) sets are retired.  With Brick Bank having just released, a retirement IS imminent.  The only real question is, which one.  If you go by sales numbers, then PC is probably the choice since I doubt it's selling as well as PR.  But the elephant in the room is still Pet Shop which is now the longest running Modular ever and has been on the market almost exactly as long as Grand Emporium and Fire Brigade, both of which were retired right around the same age as Pet Shop is now.

[exciter1]

20 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

This talk of PR early retirement is what filled so many stockrooms with PCs last year.

Funny enough, I don't have to buy too many modulars this year.  Thank you 2015 hype!

[Battrax]

I only have one modular - a Parisian Restaurant I bought during the BF sales at Target. Not decided yet if I will open it for myself (it looks GORGEOUS) or keep it until it is gone and sell it.

But really, TLG of 10 years ago is different from TLG of 5 years ago and different from TLG of today. Like any organisation, they need to change and adapt, i would be shocked if they have rigid rules (e.g. only allow three modulars at a time") that aren't flexible enough to move to the market place conditions.If the PR is a good seller, profitable and the R&D costs have been recouped, why kill it?

[rlangston77]

47 minutes ago, Battrax said:

I only have one modular - a Parisian Restaurant I bought during the BF sales at Target. Not decided yet if I will open it for myself (it looks GORGEOUS) or keep it until it is gone and sell it.

But really, TLG of 10 years ago is different from TLG of 5 years ago and different from TLG of today. Like any organisation, they need to change and adapt, i would be shocked if they have rigid rules (e.g. only allow three modulars at a time") that aren't flexible enough to move to the market place conditions.If the PR is a good seller, profitable and the R&D costs have been recouped, why kill it?

I agree, but the first city modular released in late 2007, so it's only really been roughly 8 years.  Also, big companies don't change super quickly in most cases (I've worked for several large corporations, it takes a month to do a 2 day job).  But I see what you mean.  However, stores only have so much shelf space and they could be under pressure to release new SKU's (new things, basically) that could force retirement of things that sell well simply to get "NEW!" things in front of peoples faces.  It's impossible to say what will happen really.  Personally I can see PR sticking around for another year or two and the Pet Shop and PC getting retired at the same time, sometime before mid year.

[Jules_K]

2 hours ago, rlangston77 said:

Typically historically it is within less than 3 months of the new set hitting that previous sets (Often 1, sometimes 2) sets are retired.  With Brick Bank having just released, a retirement IS imminent.  

Sorry, but that's just not true at all with modulars, what are you basing this on? New sets are released on January 1 and the outgoing set sells out / retires in the months leading up to January 1. If you want to go on historical trends then a retirement is NOT imminent, which is the exact opposite to what you're saying.

[rlangston77]

53 minutes ago, Jules_K said:

Sorry, but that's just not true at all with modulars, what are you basing this on? New sets are released on January 1 and the outgoing set sells out / retires in the months leading up to January 1. If you want to go on historical trends then a retirement is NOT imminent, which is the exact opposite to what you're saying.

A fellow board member put this together.  I was assuming it was accurate since nobody else found fault with it in the thread:

http://i68.servimg.com/u/f68/11/29/64/44/ddd10.jpg

But like I mentioned, retirement seems overdue and who knows what Lego will decide to do.  Just because they've done something one way historically doesn't mean they will continue to do so.  Just look at the short life of the Town Hall.  It's all just speculation.  Also my statement about it being within 3 months can mean prior to or after.

Edited January 13, 2016 by rlangston77

[Val-E]

TRU here have removed a number of sets from their including SC, DS, EV, PR, DO, PS. PC still figures but is sold out. Make of it what you will.

Edited January 13, 2016 by valenciaeric

[Mos_Eisley]

I think LEGO is retiring everything. It's all The Force Awakens and Angry Birds from here on out. 

[Val-E]

The only way they will sell Bionicle and Nexo is by making them the only products available!

[exciter1]

15 minutes ago, Mos_Eisley said:

I think LEGO is retiring everything. It's all The Force Awakens and Angry Birds from here on out. 

The circle is now complete.  Elton John, you are my only hope.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Jules_K said:

Sorry, but that's just not true at all with modulars, what are you basing this on? New sets are released on January 1 and the outgoing set sells out / retires in the months leading up to January 1. If you want to go on historical trends then a retirement is NOT imminent, which is the exact opposite to what you're saying.

 

3 hours ago, rlangston77 said:

Like I mentioned above, someone told me that the Town Hall was only retired early due to poor sales.  Since PR is selling like crazy it is highly unlikely that it will retire this year.  But you never know.  PC is much more likely I think just due to the fact that it's older.

I can tell you one thing, historically they have had 3 modulars on the market, then retired green grocer and had only 2, shortly after (3 months) they released Pet Shop and had 3 on the market again.  Then they released Town Hall and Palace Cinema to have 5 on the market at the same time, significantly more than previous years.  They then retired Fire Brigade upon releasing PR to maintain 5 on the market.  Town Hall and Grand Emporium were then retired upon the release of Detective Office to to have 4 on the market again (this seems to be a trend, that they want 4 modulars on the market). 

Now, with the release of the Brick Bank we have 5 sets again...Typically historically it is within less than 3 months of the new set hitting that previous sets (Often 1, sometimes 2) sets are retired.  With Brick Bank having just released, a retirement IS imminent.  The only real question is, which one.  If you go by sales numbers, then PC is probably the choice since I doubt it's selling as well as PR.  But the elephant in the room is still Pet Shop which is now the longest running Modular ever and has been on the market almost exactly as long as Grand Emporium and Fire Brigade, both of which were retired right around the same age as Pet Shop is now.

You are both talking about different markets and therefore both right. Stuff retires earlier in the UK AFAIK

[Jules_K]

1 hour ago, rlangston77 said:

A fellow board member put this together.  I was assuming it was accurate since nobody else found fault with it in the thread:

http://i68.servimg.com/u/f68/11/29/64/44/ddd10.jpg

But like I mentioned, retirement seems overdue and who knows what Lego will decide to do.  Just because they've done something one way historically doesn't mean they will continue to do so.  Just look at the short life of the Town Hall.  It's all just speculation.  Also my statement about it being within 3 months can mean prior to or after.

That graphic is correct, as you can see there has never been a retirement in anything other than quarter 4. As Q4 2015 has now passed, based on historical data the next logical time for retirement is Q4 2016.

 

[rlangston77]

6 minutes ago, Jules_K said:

That graphic is correct, as you can see there has never been a retirement in anything other than quarter 4. As Q4 2015 has now passed, based on historical data the next logical time for retirement is Q4 2016.

 

Agreed but there has also never been a set with a shelf life as long as Pet Shop.  Town Hall is also an outlier meaning that outliers and deviations from that pattern are possible. 

Again, not saying you're wrong, you are right.  I'm just making a case for a break from that standard pattern pointing to a possible mid - late year retirement on Pet Shop.

[Mos_Eisley]

12 minutes ago, rlangston77 said:

Agreed but there has also never been a set with a shelf life as long as Pet Shop.  Town Hall is also an outlier meaning that outliers and deviations from that pattern are possible. 

Again, not saying you're wrong, you are right.  I'm just making a case for a break from that standard pattern pointing to a possible mid - late year retirement on Pet Shop.

I'm going to have to stop reading these.

[Jules_K]

12 minutes ago, rlangston77 said:

Agreed but there has also never been a set with a shelf life as long as Pet Shop.  Town Hall is also an outlier meaning that outliers and deviations from that pattern are possible. 

Again, not saying you're wrong, you are right.  I'm just making a case for a break from that standard pattern pointing to a possible mid - late year retirement on Pet Shop.

I agree with you there, the Pet Shop is the outlier which could go earlier. Not sure why people are saying the PC or PR will go earlier than Q4 though. I guess this is a speculation thread after all. 

[rlangston77]

I mean Lego Creator (city block series) as for the shelf life.  Not overall Lego, just to clarify.

[Veegs]

18 minutes ago, Mos_Eisley said:

I'm going to have to stop reading these.

I keep meaning to, too, but it is like a car crash I can't avert my eyes from.

[Val-E]

It wouldn´t be Q1 without some completely unfounded modular retirement speculation. I am sure TLG has something to do with it so they can get good all year round sales!

Has anyone seen a PS o SOH in an new box yet, BTW?

[rlangston77]

Pretty sure all the city modulars got a new box except for PS.  Trying to verify that now though.

[Grynn]

Took a look at nearest WalMart's 2016 Spring organizational plan this morning...

No huge surprises but several notable soft semi-confirmations of near retirement ("deleted" items):

 

No space planned for Raptor Escape - .All other JW sets back already (51R5 seals mostly)

No space planned for The Mine(!) - All other S1 Minecraft sets remain.

No space planned for Creator Bike Shop and Cafe.

No space planned for Ant-Man, Darkseid Invasion, and Black Manta... all other 2015 Super Heroes remain.

No space planned for Series 2 Microfighters except Snowspeeder and AT-AT.

No space planned for AAT, T-16, AT-DP, Wookie Gunship, Ezra's Speeder Bike (!)... all other 2015 SW sets returning.

 

! - come as a bit of a surprise, could be mistakes, could be meaningless, could be a great clue. You guys already knew that.

 

[Yinchuan]

9 minutes ago, Grynn said:

Took a look at nearest WalMart's 2016 Spring organizational plan this morning...

No huge surprises but several notable soft semi-confirmations of near retirement ("deleted" items):

 

No space planned for Raptor Escape - .All other JW sets back already (51R5 seals mostly)

No space planned for The Mine(!) - All other S1 Minecraft sets remain.

No space planned for Creator Bike Shop and Cafe.

No space planned for Ant-Man, Darkseid Invasion, and Black Manta... all other 2015 Super Heroes remain.

No space planned for Series 2 Microfighters except Snowspeeder and AT-AT.

No space planned for AAT, T-16, AT-DP, Wookie Gunship, Ezra's Speeder Bike (!)... all other 2015 SW sets returning.

 

! - come as a bit of a surprise, could be mistakes, could be meaningless, could be a great clue. You guys already knew that.

 

Wal Mart has an organizational plan?!?

[Roy vd M.]

11 minutes ago, Grynn said:

No space planned for Creator Bike Shop and Cafe.

(...)

No space planned for AAT, T-16, AT-DP, Wookie Gunship, Ezra's Speeder Bike (!)... all other 2015 SW sets returning.

Creator Bike Shop and Cafe, AAT is a retired product in Europe.

T-16 is marked 'call to check for availability' right now. 

Wookie Gunship, AT-DP and Ezra's Speeder are all sold out.

As several other Star Wars sets from the 75000 series have retired early I think those mentioned above will most probably be retired early as well.

I can imagine it's great for you US / Canada citizens, to be able to simply peek at European LEGO Shop at Home sites to know what's being retired here already (and which will most probably retire soon in US / Canada).