Retiring Soon - open speculation

[redghostx]

There's a 100% chance that all current sets will be retired.............................................................................. one day!

Except for the LS?

Ex astris, scientia.

[emazers]

I am 100% sure the SSD will retire thats why I have gotten 8 with the Double VIP Points, and will get 2-4 more May 4th if Lego has a 10-15% sale on them and that will bring me up to 30 of them. So Lets see how many people miss the Boat on this set, So instead of buying hundreds and thousand of dollars worth of clearance and sets that just came out you should be getting the SSD, and anybody thinks that the price will not rise fast and with the new Movie next Dec will be sorry that they didn't load up on them.   Ed

[mudcatsfan]

I am 100% sure the SSD will retire thats why I have gotten 8 with the Double VIP Points, and will get 2-4 more May 4th if Lego has a 10-15% sale on them and that will bring me up to 30 of them. So Lets see how many people miss the Boat on this set, So instead of buying hundreds and thousand of dollars worth of clearance and sets that just came out you should be getting the SSD, and anybody thinks that the price will not rise fast and with the new Movie next Dec will be sorry that they didn't load up on them.   Ed

 

Emazers, I love your posts, your thoughts, and you in general. You've been friendly, wise, and generous with your time and expertise.

 

But i think you're wrong here.

 

As a FRIENDLY bet,,,, Let's put your one SSD for 399.99 against my 23 Umbaran Tank's i just picked up for 16.79 each.

 

I'll let you pick the duration. 6 months, 12 months, whatever.

 

We can use BrickPicker's valuation after that duration and see which was the better investment.

 

Stakes are, the loser has to put "________ was right" in their signature file for a year.

 

Sound good ?

 

-oh and i fully recognize the extra work in packing & shipping extra sets (not in listing them, that's just extra quantity on your ebay page). So we can use whatever the BrickPicker contest used to account for that. Perhaps a 'service fee' per set sold.

[tonysbricks]

The worst price emazers (or anyone else) could have paid is 350, and that's without some coupon stacking deal finding mojo.

[Mos_Eisley]

I like the challenge.

Also, with all these retirement declarations, when is it determined that someone was incorrect? If you say something is retired today and it's still readily available 6 months from now, but totally gone in 9 months, were you right because it eventually retired?

[mudcatsfan]

The worst price emazers (or anyone else) could have paid is 350, and that's without some coupon stacking deal finding mojo.

 

Coupons haven't worked on the SSD in a long while now. There used to be a Kids Club that worked on it, but no more. I got one on Amazon 15% off but that was November of 2012.

 

Buying one today is 399.99 plus tax (in most states) and you get $20 back in lego points, so not sure where you're getting 350 ? Even with double points it would be $40 back in points, not $50.

[No More Monkeys]

I like the challenge.

Also, with all these retirement declarations, when is it determined that someone was incorrect? If you say something is retired today and it's still readily available 6 months from now, but totally gone in 9 months, were you right because it eventually retired?

yeah, we don't even have common agreement on what "retired" is. 9495 Y-wing is retired in Lego SAH sense, but TRU still has it. Friends butterfly beauty salon is not retired in lego SAH sense (not even retiring soon), can it be called "retired"?

[emazers]

If anybody thinks they can make more money buying other sets instead of getting the SSD,GE,Etc well do it. Everybody has there own way of Investing and making money. As for how much I paid for the 8 SSD I just got I had lots of Lego Gift Cards, so got the 8 pretty cheap.

[Jeff Mack]

Emazers, I love your posts, your thoughts, and you in general. You've been friendly, wise, and generous with your time and expertise.

 

But i think you're wrong here.

 

As a FRIENDLY bet,,,, Let's put your one SSD for 399.99 against my 23 Umbaran Tank's i just picked up for 16.79 each.

 

I'll let you pick the duration. 6 months, 12 months, whatever.

 

We can use BrickPicker's valuation after that duration and see which was the better investment.

 

Stakes are, the loser has to put "________ was right" in their signature file for a year.

 

Sound good ?

 

-oh and i fully recognize the extra work in packing & shipping extra sets (not in listing them, that's just extra quantity on your ebay page). So we can use whatever the BrickPicker contest used to account for that. Perhaps a 'service fee' per set sold.

 

 

I am with Ed on this one and I think this is where I think some of you go wrong.

 

I will take the SSD.  Even if that only has a 50% increase, that is a $200 gain.

 

If your tank raise's a whopping 488% to $100, its only a $83 gain. 

 

Ed Wins.  Give me money, you can keep the percent

[No More Monkeys]

I am with Ed on this one and I think this is where I think some of you go wrong.

 

I will take the SSD.  Even if that only has a 50% increase, that is a $200 gain.

 

If your tank raise's a whopping 488% to $100, its only a $83 gain. 

 

Ed Wins.  Give me money, you can keep the percent

hold on, he mentioned 23 umbarans...

[hepcatpunk]

I am with Ed on this one and I think this is where I think some of you go wrong.

 

I will take the SSD.  Even if that only has a 50% increase, that is a $200 gain.

 

If your tank raise's a whopping 488% to $100, its only a $83 gain. 

 

Ed Wins.  Give me money, you can keep the percent

 

Umm, no offense, but that's silly talk.  He'll have made over $1700 based on your example on the same $400ish buy-in.  I'll take the % everyday, thank you.

[Mos_Eisley]

Yea isn't the challenge an equivalent amount of money invested? Of course one Umb can't beat one SSD.

[Jeff Mack]

hold on, he mentioned 23 umbarans...

 

Ok fine, wow, 23 of this or that.  Sure give me 125 polybags of whatever.   I would still rather move a few big sets instead of all the trouble listing, packing, etc etc. Only a small majority was able to buy big amounts of those sets at that price.  Most have to buy them closer to retail.  Ed and I combined couldn't even come close to 23.  

[waddamon]

Can we move the debate to a "what i'll make thread" and keep this retirement focused.  I keep pulling this up thinking a new wave of retirements has hit etc.  Too many opinions on this site, who cares how you do it, place your bets and move on.  Help others where you think it is appropriate.  Many people can be right at the same time.  The problem to an internet site is nobody ever tells you how much they lost and their negative cash flows or yields.  Only the wins.  Ed has nothing to prove, thus taking a bet is a waste of time.  Best of luck to all.

[stephen_rockefeller]

I am 100% sure the SSD will retire

I'm 100% sure every lego set will retire.

[FISHERDUYU]

Ok fine, wow, 23 of this or that.  Sure give me 125 polybags of whatever.   I would still rather move a few big sets instead of all the trouble listing, packing, etc etc. Only a small majority was able to buy big amounts of those sets at that price.  Most have to buy them closer to retail.  Ed and I combined couldn't even come close to 23.  

 

For small sets, amazon FBA is the right choice.

[c666187]

For small sets, amazon FBA is the right choice.

 

Not on Retired sets, unless I am missing something.

[FISHERDUYU]

For small sets, amazon FBA is the right choice.

 

Not on Retired sets, unless I am missing something.

 

If you want to sell thousands of sets per year, you really need some tool like Amazon FBA.

[No More Monkeys]

Not on Retired sets, unless I am missing something.

retired-ness does not matter (7754 is on Prime,  ). Slow-moving sets, now that would be a problem for FBA

[Ed Mack]

Information is shared more than you know. And their is more information in the system (database) that managers have access to than you know. I'm not going to get into a silly arguement over this. Believe or not, it's up to you. We are just trying to help out the community.

Jeff and I appreciate your information.  Many of the negative responses are from people with zero information to share and even if they received some insider information...they wouldn't share.  

 

To those of you who doubt The Brickshow's connections, LEGO gave Jason one of these highly collectible sets(below).  Did you get one?

[Rich B]

Maybe I'm crazy, but that would be a $200 vs. $1700 return.  23 smaller sets would take approximately an hour or two to package.  You could sell all of this under 1 listing by simply changing the quantity.  So basically one would be making $1500 more off of smaller sets for maybe 2 hours more of work.  I love both big and small sets, but in that example 23 smaller sets sounds much more appealing to me than one $400 set.

[Jeff Mack]

Maybe I'm crazy, but that would be a $200 vs. $1700 return.  23 smaller sets would take approximately an hour or two to package.  You could sell all of this under 1 listing by simply changing the quantity.  So basically one would be making $1500 more off of smaller sets for maybe 2 hours more of work.  I love both big and small sets, but in that example 23 smaller sets sounds much more appealing to me than one $400 set.

 

My fault is that i really didn't pay attention to the 23 he had listed.  My bad, i will now go light all my big sets on fire.  Everyone is much smarter than me.

[No More Monkeys]

Jeff and I appreciate your information.  Many of the negative responses are from people with zero information to share and even if they received some insider information...they wouldn't share.  

 

To those of you who doubt The Brickshow's connections, LEGO gave Jason one of these highly collectible sets(below).  Did you get one?

I was not aware of the backstory. I was reacting to forthofer comment

"

1. The manager of the store told me.
2. Everything that particular manager has told me so far, has been true.

"

which sounded exactly like one of the posts hxckid88 made awhile ago (can't find one right know).  But yeah, I bet hxckid88 does not have that highly collectible set  :-)

[c666187]

retired-ness does not matter (7754 is on Prime,  ). Slow-moving sets, now that would be a problem for FBA

 

My point was that on retired sets (that are no longer available at retail) would not be able to be fulfilled by Amazon. But it is likely that I do not fully understand how FBA works. Please disregard my previous post due to my ignorance.

[jaisonline]

Please, can we stay on target?

Sent from an iPhone using the Brickpicker app