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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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1 hour ago, zskid00 said:

Maybe this is the "chaos" Ed kept telling us about.  Could be a mass extinction event here which would be very surprising considering how short of a period some of these sets were available for.

If that is what's happening, then these will be some of the greatest reselling opportunities that we've seen in a long time given their short lifespan.

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Ed commented on chaos in the beginning but I do not believe he really ever followed up with any more details.

That is meant not that he should but I take it that there is not a specific event happening but a complete permanent change in the dynamics....

Otherwise we can be asking in 2049 if this is the Chaos Ed meant ?  lol

 

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I wouldn't be surprised to see Lego cut bait on some smaller sets after a year. I'm sure sales for sets like Ant-Man trail off after the initial impact of the movie. Why not clear production capacity for new, popular sellers instead of let old sets languish and finally find their way to clearance racks?

Think about the deep discounts on GOTG toward the end... Ant-Man never suffered that indignity. Okay, I guess there was the early release indignity of Wal-Mart clearance, but that's like Russian Roulette.

 

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7 minutes ago, biking_tiger said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Lego cut bait on some smaller sets after a year. I'm sure sales for sets like Ant-Man trail off after the initial impact of the movie. Why not clear production capacity for new, popular sellers instead of let old sets languish and finally find their way to clearance racks?

Think about the deep discounts on GOTG toward the end... Ant-Man never suffered that indignity. Okay, I guess there was the early release indignity of Wal-Mart clearance, but that's like Russian Roulette.

 

And those bloody resellers will not get their fix buying at clearance prices. So a win-win situation for Lego.

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59 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

Yeah, I think orange is coming back.  Red is gone.

Hobbit theme is gone, so that's good 

I don't think this is right.  I think that there is some relevance to the different colors that is not obvious from this side of the interface.  If orange did mean that the set was coming back, there would be a whole lot of sets that are due to retire that would be coming back.  For example, 75038 Anakin's Jedi Starfighter is due to go and is in orange sold out status. 

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5 minutes ago, redcell said:

I don't think this is right.  I think that there is some relevance to the different colors that is not obvious from this side of the interface.  If orange did mean that the set was coming back, there would be a whole lot of sets that are due to retire that would be coming back.  For example, 75038 Anakin's Jedi Starfighter is due to go and is in orange sold out status. 

Did anyone ask Lego rep/employee what the orange vs red means? I'll call myself tomorrow but maybe someone already did, and yes, I know 9 out of 10 times they don't know lol

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16 minutes ago, Lordoflego said:

Did anyone ask Lego rep/employee what the orange vs red means? I'll call myself tomorrow but maybe someone already did, and yes, I know 9 out of 10 times they don't know lol

Please don't!  No attention please, nothing to see here. move along, move along...

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51 minutes ago, redcell said:

I don't think this is right.  I think that there is some relevance to the different colors that is not obvious from this side of the interface.  If orange did mean that the set was coming back, there would be a whole lot of sets that are due to retire that would be coming back.  For example, 75038 Anakin's Jedi Starfighter is due to go and is in orange sold 

 

 

 

I'm just pulling it out of my shorts.  I don't know.  I look at it all as just a random thing however there are the 3 exclusives we know (hope we know) that are gone and they are all in red.  The hobbit sets before they took down the theme those were all red as well.  

Who really knows.

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9 hours ago, conceptmachine said:

 

 

I'm just pulling it out of my shorts.  I don't know.  I look at it all as just a random thing however there are the 3 exclusives we know (hope we know) that are gone and they are all in red.  The hobbit sets before they took down the theme those were all red as well.  

Who really knows.

I think that you're right about the red status...at least I hope that you're right about the red status.  It's just the orange that makes less sense to me.

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On 11/29/2015, 5:58:26, biking_tiger said:

It kind of looks that way... time will tell after all the holiday dust settles. 

I definitely think that is what is happening.  Lots of signs that sets lasting less than a year on the shelf is occurring - the hobbit BOTFA, SW January 2015 wave already has almost half of that wave sold out and going out of stock in other retailers.  The Avengers 2015 sets are showing signs of sputtering into retirement.  Ant-man has shown signs.  The SW 2014 summer wave is going away.  JW is another wave that may be less than a year on the market.  With so many sets hitting the market every year, maybe that is lego's new strategy - have a rotating list of sets that come in, and go out in a year, and the following year there is another heavy list of sets. 

One thing I will say, I don't see any At-at's, IDS's, or Cantinas listed on the brickset list for 2016, although, surely there will be a new bunch of 6 or 7 sets for Rogue One when that hits next year.  My guess is it will be like this year, where we don't know what is in that wave until they are announced in late august, and then brought to market on a "force friday" in september of next year.

Meanwhile, the exclusives seem to hang on past the two year mark.  But, still long term, the exclusives are still solid for those willing to put in the effort to wait.

What does this all mean?  Well, i'd say when you see good deals and discounts it's the time to buy any of these sets.  For example, to this day, the best price to get cantinas at the lowest price was during the May the 4th target deal, and the late July clearance event at walmart.  So, when you see deals for Tydiriums and Jedi Duels or even the Force Awakens sets that were released 3 months ago don't hesitate and think "i'll wait to EOL", and just jump on it to get a nice stock going, because if this pattern holds, they will be gone or be sputtering into retirement by late september, and be a good item to sell next Christmas.  I think it's a given lego will be keeping a fresh stock of new SW sets by releasing more than any of us will be able to keep up with..

Edited by fossilrock
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29 minutes ago, Follows Closely said:

^

2015 December 18th - Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
2016 December 16th  - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2017 May 26th  - Star Wars: Episode VIII - ?
2018 May 25th  - Star Wars Anthology: Han Solo
2019 ? - Star Wars: Episode IX - ?

http://www.denofgeek.us/movies/star-wars/241723/full-star-wars-movie-release-calendar

Yep, one film per year = a whole bunch of new sets related to each movie.  Just from the Force Awakens, we got 7 sets on the 4th of September, and it looks like 2 new ones in January with 2 more battle packs.  Then of course there is the other odds and ends like microfighters and buildable figures.  I just suspect we will see a year to maybe a year and a few months shelf life on all of these sets, and that includes force awakens.  I maybe wrong, but I think lego will keep it fresh and rotating.  Just my opinion, but it seems to be that way right now.  Most of the sets that came out this january are already looking like they maybe out the door, except for perhaps 3 or 4 of them.

Exclusives though, will probably be around for more than 2 years, and I bet you see those have a shelf life of 3 years.

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