Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Val-E]

4 hours ago, Ciglione said:

Where is my pm???

You know too much already!

 

1 hour ago, mesje said:

For us in Slovakia (and middle Europe) is the situation much easier - we dont have any chance to buy exclusive sets with discounts. Classic toy shops here tdont have creator expert, UCS or Ideas sets, only several shops, but they dont give any discounts to such sets. Sometimes we have several exclusive sets in ONE Tesco store and sometimes went to discounts, but there is a 100x bigger demand than the number of available sets. Only sets going to discounts are classic series such as City, SW, etc. Same situation is in neighboring states. So the only chance is to buy exklusives with small discounts combining double VIP points and bonus sets in lego stores - in final, it can decrease the price by 20 %.

FWIW I stopped buying exclusives in May as nothing that has come out since seems like it will do better than what i already have and they are just a PIA to sell and store. I only broke that once to get a ToO after EOL. It´s a flipper´s world these days and I don´t have the skillset to be a long term hoarder in any case.

[Val-E]

5 hours ago, TigerG said:

At least 4 "new" architecture sets are on the way: Berlin, NY, Venice and Burj Khalifa. I agree that more set are on the way out but I doubt it's Pisa or the Space Needle  - at least in Europe.

21029 Buckingham Palace would be the 5th and Capitol 21030 is rumoured to be number 6. 6 in and 2 out means 4 left to go if they want to keep the numbers even.

Don´t forget that White House  and Brandenburg Gate have also been out longer  and BG is repeated in the Berlin one so hopefully it will go too. Little Big Ben maybe too and then there is Imperial Hotel. It´s hard to say how it will pan out but IH is the only one I don´t have so that will probably go next!

I´ll say Needle and BG now with a couple more to follow next quarter but no clue which (BB and Imperial maybe).

Edited November 12, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Crustybeaver]

I'm hoping on White House going. As you said Brandenburg gate is in the new Berlin set so should be prime candidate for retirement. What's the Capitol set you talk of?

[Val-E]

PM sent.

Nah, just kidding - it´s another Eurobricks rumour but considering how they picked up on our Technic batmobile one started it might be best to ignore it!

Apparently there are 2 2H sets which is why I think Big Ben and White House will make it through at least until 1Q16.

 

 

[conceptmachine]

I'm just a buyer, I have no care to save, but I have this strange complex of ever paying over msrp for anything.  Never have and never will.  Makes no sense I know but I could care less about a sale.  Wife loves sales. I think it's funny when she jumps thru hoops to save 10% when it took her more money to find it than what she saved, but as long as it makes her feel better, I'm good with it.  I just work an extra 15 minutes at my day job and it pays for an exclusive.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

I'm just a buyer, I have no care to save, but I have this strange complex of ever paying over msrp for anything.  Never have and never will.  Makes no sense I know but I could care less about a sale.  Wife loves sales. I think it's funny when she jumps thru hoops to save 10% when it took her more money to find it than what she saved, but as long as it makes her feel better, I'm good with it.  I just work an extra 15 minutes at my day job and it pays for an exclusive.

I won't either. Some will tell you that's silly. I look at the margins and wonder how anyone makes money buying at msrp let alone over. I know some will come up with examples here and there but hindsight doesn't help when you need to make the decision yourself and for every example they can come up with you can come up with 100 that would have lost you money buying over msrp.

[Darth_Raichu]

2 hours ago, chipbee said:

There is only one rule, and that is to make a profit so that you can buy more lego sets to play.

Easier said than done repeatedly

[makr]

1 hour ago, conceptmachine said:

I just work an extra 15 minutes at my day job and it pays for an exclusive.

I envy your hourly.

[pickleboy]

7 minutes ago, makromizer said:

I envy your hourly.

I wouldn't even bother with this if I made that kinda money in 15 mins.

[makr]

4 minutes ago, pickleboy said:

I wouldn't even bother with this if I made that kinda money in 15 mins.

That's a 7 figure income, easily doable by reselling LEGO*

 

*before waking up

[redcell]

45 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

I won't either. Some will tell you that's silly. I look at the margins and wonder how anyone makes money buying at msrp let alone over. I know some will come up with examples here and there but hindsight doesn't help when you need to make the decision yourself and for every example they can come up with you can come up with 100 that would have lost you money buying over msrp.

I don't think that anyone would say that it is a viable strategy to buy ANY set at MSRP.  There are plenty of sets that retire and never appreciate significantly on the secondary market.  However, there are also plenty of sets that retire each year that do appreciate enough from MSRP to make them viable investment options even at MSRP.  It's certainly always better to get a discount, but if you figure out what to look for and how to pick the right sets, it is not difficult to make money even if you're buying at MSRP.

Also, I think that you are overstating the risk of losing money on sets bought at MSRP.  There are very few sets that depreciate from MSRP after they retire.  This can happen when a set is a complete stinker and gets clearanced for 50%+ off (e.g., Prince of Persia, Galaxy Squad), but those are rare.  Most of the time, the worst case scenario for sets bought at MSRP is a nominal gain.  I have lost money on a number of sets that I've bought into, but that has always happened when it became clear that the set was a stinker and I made the decision to take a few percentage point loss now so that I could reinvest the money elsewhere rather than keep the money tied up long enough to sell for a nominal gain.

[MagicShop]

Whats up with RE with the retired tag?!??

[Ciglione]

21 minutes ago, redcell said:

I don't think that anyone would say that it is a viable strategy to buy ANY set at MSRP.  There are plenty of sets that retire and never appreciate significantly on the secondary market.  However, there are also plenty of sets that retire each year that do appreciate enough from MSRP to make them viable investment options even at MSRP.  It's certainly always better to get a discount, but if you figure out what to look for and how to pick the right sets, it is not difficult to make money even if you're buying at MSRP.

Also, I think that you are overstating the risk of losing money on sets bought at MSRP.  There are very few sets that depreciate from MSRP after they retire.  This can happen when a set is a complete stinker and gets clearanced for 50%+ off (e.g., Prince of Persia, Galaxy Squad), but those are rare.  Most of the time, the worst case scenario for sets bought at MSRP is a nominal gain.  I have lost money on a number of sets that I've bought into, but that has always happened when it became clear that the set was a stinker and I made the decision to take a few percentage point loss now so that I could reinvest the money elsewhere rather than keep the money tied up long enough to sell for a nominal gain.

Some Prince of Persia sets are now big in the plus. Like 7573 Battle of Alamut. So sometimes, after a couple of years, sets do find their way back up.

Previously, my investment strategy was to find retired sets in for example remote toy shops. But since other investors have started to do the same or shops have changed their gameplan these opportunities have become very very rare. Most toy shops are completely cleaned out now. Those were some good times. Unfortunately it is history now. 

 

 

[Ed Mack]

8 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Some Prince of Persia sets are now big in the plus. Like 7573 Battle of Alamut. So sometimes, after a couple of years, sets do find their way back up.

Previously, my investment strategy was to find retired sets in for example remote toy shops. But since other investors have started to do the same or shops have changed their gameplan these opportunities have become very very rare. Most toy shops are completely cleaned out now. Those were some good times. Unfortunately it is history now. 

 

 

Yes, given enough time, most sets will hit positive territory.  Is that the best method to make money?  No, but there is hope for almost very set if you have the time and space to store them.

[Ciglione]

4 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Yes, given enough time, most sets will hit positive territory.  Is that the best method to make money?  No, but there is hope for almost very set if you have the time and space to store them.

And the money.

No matter what... I could never do what you do. Buying/hoarding sets and never sell any. Don't you need the occasional sale to boost up moral? And to free up some funds for other new sets?  

[pete411]

2 hours ago, conceptmachine said:

I'm just a buyer, I have no care to save, but I have this strange complex of ever paying over msrp for anything.  Never have and never will.  Makes no sense I know but I could care less about a sale.  Wife loves sales. I think it's funny when she jumps thru hoops to save 10% when it took her more money to find it than what she saved, but as long as it makes her feel better, I'm good with it.  I just work an extra 15 minutes at my day job and it pays for an exclusive.

As a collector, what are you going to do with 10 UCS Hellicarriers? Are you building a 1:1 scale MOC?

[Ed Mack]

28 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

And the money.

No matter what... I could never do what you do. Buying/hoarding sets and never sell any. Don't you need the occasional sale to boost up moral? And to free up some funds for other new sets?  

I just don't have the time to sell.  Anyway, my six year old son is giving new life to many of my sets....He's building them!

[exciter1]

12 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I just don't have the time to sell.  Anyway, my six year old son is giving new life to many of my sets....He's building them!

Sleep is overrated

[conceptmachine]

I don't know what I'll do with it...maybe eventually trade some for lego I don't have.  I'm a hoarder by incidence.  Didn't have squat growing up.   Now I collect stuff...mainly toys to give away or trade for stuff I don't have.  I came from the dumps...know all about it.  I'm not afraid to go back...in fact I feel a certain comfort knowing it's there for me.  Back when I had nothing...at least I knew for sure the people I met and cared,  actually really cared.  I walk around in grubbs,  everyone that passes by me would think I was homeless (except clean lol)  I prefer to live this way.

[jerryherb]

45 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Sleep is overrated

especially from now until xmas

[Ciglione]

12 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

I don't know what I'll do with it...maybe eventually trade some for lego I don't have.  I'm a hoarder by incidence.  Didn't have squat growing up.   Now I collect stuff...mainly toys to give away or trade for stuff I don't have.  I came from the dumps...know all about it.  I'm not afraid to go back...in fact I feel a certain comfort knowing it's there for me.  Back when I had nothing...at least I knew for sure the people I met and cared,  actually really cared.  I walk around in grubbs,  everyone that passes by me would think I was homeless (except clean lol)  I prefer to live this way.

So you are an OH?

[conceptmachine]

Sure ...or a HH

[exciter1]

75049 - Snowspeeder, limit 1 on Amazon

[Wazzapova]

Hi guys. If an item was featured on the last 4-5 Lego catalogs and suddenly isn't on the most recent catalog, does that mean it may retire soon? Are there metrics /history on this site that documents this? 

[marcandre]

9 minutes ago, Wazzapova said:

Hi guys. If an item was featured on the last 4-5 Lego catalogs and suddenly isn't on the most recent catalog, does that mean it may retire soon? Are there metrics /history on this site that documents this? 

Means nothing. SSD had a two page spread when it was already sold out. Death Star and Tower Bridge have been absent from dozens of catalogs and live on forever.