Retiring Soon - open speculation

[mudcatsfan]

On 10/31/2015, 12:45:44, fossilrock said:

If you take advantage of the promos today, if you buy a cantina and a snow speeder that's 99.98 (pretax), which lands one the free ROTS Poster, and a train promo.  The poster will sell for 15.00, and you should get 20 for the train, plus the 2xVIP discount.  

At that point, you're looking at a buy in of 55.00 (pretax) for a snow speeder and a cantina, if you deduct all the sales items you'll have when you sell them, plus the 2xVIP.  That's a better deal than all the other sites right now.  It's just how you play the game.

15 for the poster seems way off based on completed sales of all the others. This thing probably nets you a few bucks after fees and shipping once they hit eBay in any volume. 

[exciter1]

56 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

15 for the poster seems way off based on completed sales of all the others. This thing probably nets you a few bucks after fees and shipping once they hit eBay in any volume. 

Very exaggerated...

[fossilrock]

35 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Very exaggerated...

Give or take a few bucks. One sold for 12.99 the other day on ebay.  I just blew out a train the other day for 24.00 through amazon.  Point remains that this was a better deal than buying through amazon at 55.99 as the buy in.  When you deduct the promos and VIP points, you'll still be better ahead.  So, not so exaggerated, when you factor in those things. 

[Guest]

I bought the posters I missed for 5 each on eBay

[fossilrock]

There's some nice recent sale prices here:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-SWCA-STAR-WARS-CELEBRATION-DISNEY-LEGO-EPISODE-V-EMPIRE-STRIKE-BACK-POSTER-/321885166713?hash=item4af1d9dc79:g:nYYAAOSwymxVN8-Z

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-Episode-I-Phantom-Menace-Promo-Teaser-Poster-NEW-/221890901539?hash=item33a9ba7623:g:M18AAOSw37tV~fpc

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-Poster-Episode-IV-A-New-Hope-NEW-RARE-Great-X-mas-Gift-/121788128146?hash=item1c5b235b92:g:O8IAAOSwYHxWHzej

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-Movie-Posters-A-New-Hope-The-Empire-Strikes-Back-Return-of-Jedi-/181773933620?hash=item2a52921c34:m:mG3yfoI749jiLMOkpopFb6A


Regardless, I don't regret picking up a cantina/snowspeeder combo and getting a ROTS poster/train/2xvip for it.  Another good purchase was the Tydirium.  Each purchase landed 10.00 in VIP, 20.00 on a train if I blow it out right now, and if I wait till movie hysteria, i'll blow out a complete set of posters for 75.  Then i'll sell the cantina and snow speeder sometime next year.  Regardless, don't see why people so hung up on the poster.  Those sell well too, judging from ebay sales.  And I rarely see any of them selling for 5.00.

[fossilrock]

Dol Guldur Battle went to Sold Out today.  There's still a few of these out in the wild, but it's another set whose time seems to be passing.

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Dol-Guldur-Battle-79014?fromListing=listing

[pickleboy]

24 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Dol Guldur Battle went to Sold Out today.  There's still a few of these out in the wild, but it's another set whose time seems to be passing.

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Dol-Guldur-Battle-79014?fromListing=listing

BUUUT....it's only "orange" sold out!!!   :)

[Bold-Arrow]

SW advent sold out Lego , oos Amazon . Calling this one as done . 

[cladner]

EMERALD EXPRESS might be finito.

Emerald Express

• Item: 31015
•  
•  
• Ages:6-12
•  
• VIP Points: 4
• Pieces:56
•  
• Sold Out

Build the 3-in-1 LEGO® Creator Emerald Express with chunky wheels, funnel, light, cattle bars, driver’s cab and windows!

Price $4.99

[exciter1]

45 minutes ago, cladner said:

EMERALD EXPRESS might be finito.

Emerald Express

• Item: 31015
•  
•  
• Ages:6-12
•  
• VIP Points: 4
• Pieces:56
•  
• Sold Out

Build the 3-in-1 LEGO® Creator Emerald Express with chunky wheels, funnel, light, cattle bars, driver’s cab and windows!

Price $4.99

Yeah! I hope this one appreciates nicely and will be $50 for a set of 3 soon.

[Freewilly]

I wonder if Lego has become smarter. Until now there is still not much movement on the retired set front for exclusives. I know it's still early November but last years there where stronger signs.

Have Lego learned from the past and do not retire any major sets before Christmas? From Lego point of view I Always found it unbelieveable to retire sets in November & December instead of January & February.

[Val-E]

If they put them all to Toos they can´t very well retire them, can they? Perhaps the idea is to push the best sellers out for Xmas and bring back the slower moving premium sets in the New Year.

[asharerin]

25 minutes ago, Freewilly said:

I wonder if Lego has become smarter. Until now there is still not much movement on the retired set front for exclusives. I know it's still early November but last years there where stronger signs.

Have Lego learned from the past and do not retire any major sets before Christmas? From Lego point of view I Always found it unbelieveable to retire sets in November & December instead of January & February.

For sure. In the past they used an end of shelf life model where they would produce right up until items were retired and put on sale on a specific date. During those times they had alot of stock on sale and they relied on resellers heavily to clean up the huge amounts of excess stock. During this time resellers had a great relationship with the lego store managers and got early access to sales and got to spend alot of money in the store. You could also call lego customer service and buy every remaining set in their stores (Green Grocer for example)  across the country and have them shipped to you. 

Then about 3 years ago they changed to an end production date model where they had a specific date in advance where they would end production and that product would remain on shelves until it was sold out. This would help them be able to move stock at RRRP rather than massive amounts to resellers at 50% off. This is when they started the end of discounts on exclusives, and the banning of resellers both online and instore. With this model stock rarely lasted into the holiday shopping season for the retiring sets (FB, GE, SSD, TH, HH etc). 

This year the model changed again to "sets on demand". They want stock available to customers so there is no end production date planned in advance on the exclusives. They are doing more frequent smaller runs and as long as licensing is not an issue sets are continuing to be made as long as there is demand. I am expecting all of the retiring exclusives to be in production through the holidays and given to retailers and if there is any excess they should reappear on LEGO Shop at Home. This means you will see some sets listed as "sold out" or "retired" on LEGO Shop at Home but still being restocked at Amazon, Target, Walmart etc on a weekly basis, and the in some cases "sold out" or "retired" tags being changed back to "available now" on LEGO Shop at Home. 

Sets will retire, just not in the usual patterns we have seen in the past 3 years, and I am sure in 3 years or so  it will all change again as ecommerce  and consumer habits continue to evolve very quickly. I believe TLG has figured out the horse has already bolted as far as the secondary market is concerned so now they are all about capturing as much value as they can rather than trying a balancing act. Just MO.

[Ciglione]

7 minutes ago, asharerin said:

For sure. In the past they used an end of shelf life model where they would produce right up until items were retired and put on sale on a specific date. During those times they had alot of stock on sale and they relied on resellers heavily to clean up the huge amounts of excess stock. During this time resellers had a great relationship with the lego store managers and got early access to sales and got to spend alot of money in the store. You could also call lego customer service and buy every remaining set in their stores (Green Grocer for example)  across the country and have them shipped to you. 

Then about 3 years ago they changed to an end production date model where they had a specific date in advance where they would end production and that product would remain on shelves until it was sold out. This would help them be able to move stock at RRRP rather than massive amounts to resellers at 50% off. This is when they started the end of discounts on exclusives, and the banning of resellers both online and instore. With this model stock rarely lasted into the holiday shopping season for the retiring sets (FB, GE, SSD, TH, HH etc). 

This year the model changed again to "sets on demand". They want stock available to customers so there is no end production date planned in advance on the exclusives. They are doing more frequent smaller runs and as long as licensing is not an issue sets are continuing to be made as long as there is demand. I am expecting all of the retiring exclusives to be in production through the holidays and given to retailers and if there is any excess they should reappear on LEGO Shop at Home. This means you will see some sets listed as "sold out" or "retired" on LEGO Shop at Home but still being restocked at Amazon, Target, Walmart etc on a weekly basis, and the in some cases "sold out" or "retired" tags being changed back to "available now" on LEGO Shop at Home. 

Sets will retire, just not in the usual patterns we have seen in the past 3 years, and I am sure in 3 years or so  it will all change again as ecommerce  and consumer habits continue to evolve very quickly. I believe TLG has figured out the horse has already bolted as far as the secondary market is concerned so now they are all about capturing as much value as they can rather than trying a balancing act. Just MO.

I think you nailed it.

[Grynn]

That's one hell of an appealing assessment, more or less what I've been thinking, trying to make sense of it all.

Just curious, do you base these statements on any special insight or is it just apparent enough for you to offer as an explanation for the evolution of the retirement process?

[Val-E]

75038 Jedi, 60002 Fire tender and 42008 service truck are out to 30 days at EU Shop - all sets I have down to  retire this year.

Edited November 7, 2015 by valenciaeric

[MarleyMoose]

7 hours ago, exciter1 said:

Yeah! I hope this one appreciates nicely and will be $50 for a set of 3 soon.

Nice. I have 17 I got for $3.50ea.

[Val-E]

42020 twin rotor helicopter also sold out at US Shop. Another expected EOL set.

[Val-E]

42009 also creeps quietly into SOLD OUT mode on a Sunday at US shop. Interesting for us Europeans to monitor how it sells in other places over the next month or so.

[Val-E]

60075 demolition also sold out. Seems this will be a hidden gem as it has been out for less than a year.

[cladner]

6 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

42020 twin rotor helicopter also sold out at US Shop. Another expected EOL set.

this has been down for the count for a couple of days.  i wouldn't buy this set for investing for more than 3 cents per prick.  i got a stash of last years equivalent set "red rotors" at 50% off .  total value trap.  great deal except no one wants it even at msrp.

 

33 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

60075 demolition also sold out. Seems this will be a hidden gem as it has been out for less than a year.

another shock indeed.  why kill this one?  looking at all the new Fire and Police sets coming out next year, we're due for a city mass extinction event - why not get rid of the old fire station and police stations?

City advent calendar is now sold out at shop at home.

Edited November 8, 2015 by cladner

[biking_tiger]

1 hour ago, cladner said:

this has been down for the count for a couple of days.  i wouldn't buy this set for investing for more than 3 cents per prick.  i got a stash of last years equivalent set "red rotors" at 50% off .  total value trap.  great deal except no one wants it even at msrp.

 

another shock indeed.  why kill this one?  looking at all the new Fire and Police sets coming out next year, we're due for a city mass extinction event - why not get rid of the old fire station and police stations?

City advent calendar is now sold out at shop at home.

60075 might be going, going gone with a short lifespan, but it doesn't really pop for me. It was waaaaay overpriced at $49.99 for 311 pieces of City pedestrian-ness. I'll be happy for anyone who scoops them up now and makes a buck, but I'll pass. 

[redcell]

2 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

60075 demolition also sold out. Seems this will be a hidden gem as it has been out for less than a year.

It's currently available at Walmart in the US for $37.50 (25% off).  It's an easy buy in my book...excavators have always done well for me.

[conceptmachine]

You figure Lego would start to drop some sets soon, there is just too much for them to handle.  From the outlook, behind for the holidays.  I think they know it makes sense to drop the less profitable/desirable sets and keep up with the ones that are selling like hotcakes.  Chances are they let a lot of them go permanently, but then  get back to smaller lot sizes of the large sets...making sure they fill the orders of nearly all that want one.  Leaving the investors with loads of them to pan off for marginal returns, over a long haul.  They are starting to perfect their system.  They would rather rake in that dough, than have someone else.  I don't think anyone here can blame them for that...

[redcell]

15 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

You figure Lego would start to drop some sets soon, there is just too much for them to handle.  From the outlook, behind for the holidays.  I think they know it makes sense to drop the less profitable/desirable sets and keep up with the ones that are selling like hotcakes.  Chances are they let a lot of them go permanently, but then  get back to smaller lot sizes of the large sets...making sure they fill the orders of nearly all that want one.  Leaving the investors with loads of them to pan off for marginal returns, over a long haul.  They are starting to perfect their system.  They would rather rake in that dough, than have someone else.  I don't think anyone here can blame them for that...

I think you are mis-reading the situation.  This is the time of year when TLG does a major overhaul of its product lineup and retires a lot of sets.  Typically this has little to do with the velocity of sales for a given set and everything to do with the time that the set has been on the market.  There are obviously exceptions to this, but it generally holds true.  Also, TLG has already perfected their system and it has little to do with the market that everyone here feeds off of.  TLG makes their money by constantly refreshing their product lineup and moving the sets that they're selling on the primary market in large volume.  TLG routinely kills off sets that could continue to be profitable (as evidenced by the money that we all make selling them on the secondary market) because it can sell larger quantities of the sets that are coming in behind them and, thus, realize a greater aggregate profit than it would if it continued trying to milk the existing sets.  There are obviously exceptions to this, but it also generally holds true.