To continue an earlier thread, here are the sets listed on S@H as "Retiring Soon":

 

Friends - Stephanie's Cool Convertible, Olivia's Speedboat, Mia's Bedroom, Series 1 foil packs

Duplo - Train Starter Set, Doctor's Clinic, Emergency Helicopter

Creator - Apple Tree House

Lego Games - Ninjago, Pirate Plank

Chima Speedorz - CHI Battles, Ring of Fire, Target Practice, CHI Waterfall

Technic - Mini Container Truck

LOTR - Gandalf Arrives, Orc Forge

CMF - Series 9

Architecture - Sugnyemun

Marvel Super Heroes - Captain America's Avenging Cycle

Star Wars - Endor Rebel Trooper and Imperial Trooper Battle Pack, Planet Bespin & Twin Cloud Car, Planet Endor & AT-ST

 

Nothing earth-shattering.  Orc Forge surprises me the most.

Looks like there's more that are wrong than are right, so I'm definitely not drawing any conclusions or creating any theories based on that list.

That´s the point though. Things CAN change and this will also affect new launches.

Also, no mention of SOH.....

 

 

That was an intersting list. 

Mini Modulars, not to retire until Dec 2014. Went Jan 2014.

Horizon Express, Dec 2015. This went early this year cos I missed out.

Problem with buying early, is storage for me. My loft is getting full. And illogically I have not been buying sets until I think they are near retirement. So I only have 3 VW Camper cos it just keeps on going....

For space reasons I am concentrating on smaller sets, like Ecto, Wall E, Birds etc...

Does the possibility of a new Death Star in the movie mean anything for the current Lego star?

That was an intersting list. 

Mini Modulars, not to retire until Dec 2014. Went Jan 2014.

Horizon Express, Dec 2015. This went early this year cos I missed out.

Problem with buying early, is storage for me. My loft is getting full. And illogically I have not been buying sets until I think they are near retirement. So I only have 3 VW Camper cos it just keeps on going....

For space reasons I am concentrating on smaller sets, like Ecto, Wall E, Birds etc...

Since sets retire when last production is sold, it is always going to be an estimated date. If the horde crowds a set out in the last months it could go quicker or they may put it on sale if it goes slow like Exo.

I wonder if there is a maximum number of reprieves, PS, DS, TB and T1 all won an extra year but maybe not for the first time.

Since sets retire when last production is sold, it is always going to be an estimated date. If the horde crowds a set out in the last months it could go quicker or they may put it on sale if it goes slow like Exo.

I wonder if there is a maximum number of reprieves, PS, DS, TB and T1 all won an extra year but maybe not for the first time.

I suspect if it makes financial sense and there is manufacturing and licensing capacity then any set can be extended indefinitely (and likewise cut short if there are manufacturing or financial/licensing issues). Obviously TLG does not have unlimited manufacturing capacity so even solid performers (e.g. PS and DS) are going to be retired at some point after a very long life (the evidence suggests TLG has figured out the number of modulars they think is optimum in 2014 and we know a new DS playset is coming in 2016). T1 and TB that still sell well and are complimentary to upcoming releases in 2016 will more than likely stick around (I know people who have stockpiled these and PC will ignore the new creator boxes but it is what it is). 

The chart only backs what I have been saying, LEGO has changed the way they retire sets and now adjust to sales. The horde has been extending production runs. With some sets, it might get to a point where even the horde can't save them, but the game has changed. I would recommend buying sets earlier if you want them to retire faster. This will be hard for many of you to put your arms around, but it could help bring back more stable retirement dates.

The best way to have a set retire is for no one to buy it! We have also seen with Exo and RI how detrimental massive early hoarding can be.

Red 5 was slated for retirement in the list now and it´s pattern seemed to be slow at first and quick at the end. This list seems to have come from Europe so it may not reflect other market strategies.

I recently found this list, I think everyone should find it to be very helpful. It may only be correct a little more than half the time, but that should be good enough on which to base your future strategies. 

I recently found this list, I think everyone should find it to be very helpful. It may only be correct a little more than half the time, but that should be good enough on which to base your future strategies.

Mos Eisley

Good to hear from you was wondering if you were OK since not around much any more

Impressed to see the field work you have been doing !

Keep up the good work and do not get in danger trying to get this leaked information

Does the possibility of a new Death Star in the movie mean anything for the current Lego star?

When I visited Lego World Copenhagen in February I spoked to a SW designer who mentioned a new star was on it's way.

I recently found this list, I think everyone should find it to be very helpful. It may only be correct a little more than half the time, but that should be good enough on which to base your future strategies.

Great nicknames.

I guess a typographic error for 10241, before the releasing date?

I recently found this list, I think everyone should find it to be very helpful. It may only be correct a little more than half the time, but that should be good enough on which to base your future strategies.

I am more impressed by how straight and uniform those lines are

I recently found this list, I think everyone should find it to be very helpful. It may only be correct a little more than half the time, but that should be good enough on which to base your future strategies.

To awaken Mos Eisley, the other list must either be 100% legit or 100% BS...You decide.  

To awaken Mos Eisley, the other list must either be 100% legit or 100% BS...You decide.  

Other list?

The chart only backs what I have been saying, LEGO has changed the way they retire sets and now adjust to sales. The horde has been extending production runs. With some sets, it might get to a point where even the horde can't save them, but the game has changed. I would recommend buying sets earlier if you want them to retire faster. This will be hard for many of you to put your arms around, but it could help bring back more stable retirement dates.

It's funny hows this goes back and forth. Someone says the horde effects eol dates and others say the horde has no effect on Lego at all. It can't be both.

The one above this one on the prev.  page exciter 

The one above this one on the prev.  page exciter 

Oh, I thought Mos' is the definitive list.

It's funny hows this goes back and forth. Someone says the horde effects eol dates and others say the horde has no effect on Lego at all. It can't be both.

Sales affect EOL dates.  The horde just helps drive the sales up.  You saw the EU stock inventory data.  It wasn't like there was tens of thousands of one set in stock.  Hundreds maybe.  Do you think a couple of hundred (or most likely..a couple thousand) serious resellers could throw off sales data and give LEGO the impression that a set's production should continue?  I do.  I doubt The LEGO Group launched the 10188 back in June of 2008 and said, "Hey, let's produce this set for the next ~8 years while most other sets retire in 1-3 years."  Something must have convinced LEGO to continue production of the 10188 and now other sets.  LEGO wouldn't produce these sets for extended periods unless they were profitable.  There are lists and then there is THE LIST, but even that is not set in stone.

Sales affect EOL dates.  The horde just helps drive the sales up.  You saw the EU stock inventory data.  It wasn't like there was tens of thousands of one set in stock.  Hundreds maybe.  Do you think a couple of hundred (or most likely..a couple thousand) serious resellers could throw off sales data and give LEGO the impression that a set's production should continue?  I do.  I doubt The LEGO Group launched the 10188 back in June of 2008 and said, "Hey, let's produce this set for the next ~8 years while most other sets retire in 1-3 years."  Something must have convinced LEGO to continue production of the 10188 and now other sets.  LEGO wouldn't produce these sets for extended periods unless they were profitable.  There are lists and then there is THE LIST, but even that is not set in stone.

Oh I agree with you. It's just every time I bring that up I am told that resellers are such a small percentage of lego customers, they don't care about us, we are nothing to them, they would never make a decision based on resellers, yada yada yada. Pet Shop thread comes to mind....

Edited October 19, 201510 yr by MarxMarvelous

There are lists and then there is THE LIST, but even that is not set in stone.

And the proof...

Oh I agree with you. It's just every time I bring that up I am told that resellers are such a small percentage of lego customers, they don't care about us, we are nothing to them, they would never make a decision based on resellers, yada yada yada. Pet Shop thread comes to mind....

I think a lot of people tend to poo-poo that idea when it's suggested when it's referred to as the ONLY reason or the MAIN reason for a set's seemingly endless existence. So many people either think resellers have NO effect or the ONLY effect and without proof we speculate or state opinions (as Ed did) rather than reach definitive conclusions. Too many mischief makers around here.

"set" pun intended? 

And the proof...

 

I think a lot of people tend to poo-poo that idea when it's suggested when it's referred to as the ONLY reason or the MAIN reason for a set's seemingly endless existence. So many people either think resellers have NO effect or the ONLY effect and without proof we speculate or state opinions (as Ed did) rather than reach definitive conclusions. Too many mischief makers around here.

From Wikipedia..

Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor and in Latin lex parsimoniae, which means 'law of parsimony') is a problem-solving principle devised by William of Ockham (c. 1287–1347), who was an English Franciscan friar and scholastic philosopher and theologian.

The principle can be interpreted as:

Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

My hypothesis...If it sells...it stays.

 

I recently found this list, I think everyone should find it to be very helpful. It may only be correct a little more than half the time, but that should be good enough on which to base your future strategies.

Hey, that looks like an official Walmart staff training memo. Must be legit then.

The 10188 is missing from that list and the winter catalog...

The 10188 is missing from that list and the winter catalog...

Naturally. Those will never retire.