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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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Is there a US inventory checker?

No there is not.

I am sorry, but where are these numbers from? From SAH? Is there an offcial database with number of sets available? Is it a whole number of sets in SAH in whole Europe?

What does it mean "sold XY" - number of sets sold this day?

 

It appears you missed this post by Jeff...

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/14599-eu-inventory-report/#comment-477273

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The occurences of the last weeks can mean two things. 

Either nothing will retire this year. Or alot of sets will retire at the same time (end of the year).

Looks like Lego is stalling EOL of their crown sets as long as possible. For whatever reason.

So better be prepared and reach your minimum quotas before that happens. So when it does happen you can chillax. 

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Now, this is purely speculatation, but I have approached my international business and markets and competition lecturers at Uni (work pays me to do a degree), but after giving them a run down on the situation (SW Ep 7) and they made the point that it would make sense from a business perspective to start throwing out massive restocks now in an effort to focus on the new SW sets that will be their flagship in an effort to focus their attention on those.

 

As to what is retiring, who knows. I think it will be here today gone tomorrow kind of affair.

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Now, this is purely speculatation, but I have approached my international business and markets and competition lecturers at Uni (work pays me to do a degree), but after giving them a run down on the situation (SW Ep 7) and they made the point that it would make sense from a business perspective to start throwing out massive restocks now in an effort to focus on the new SW sets that will be their flagship in an effort to focus their attention on those.

 

As to what is retiring, who knows. I think it will be here today gone tomorrow kind of affair.

Not really sure what point you're trying to make there. I think you need some punctuation for it to make more sense, (not having a go, just trying to work out what you mean).

Oh and going to lecturers for real life business advice, hah :)

 

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Not really sure what point you're trying to make there. I think you need some punctuation for it to make more sense, (not having a go, just trying to work out what you mean).

Oh and going to lecturers for real life business advice, hah :)

 

Yeah sorry, I was typing on my phone as the battery was dying. Point in a nutshell is that, we think that LEGO is flooding the market with sets now to shift their focus to their upcoming Star Wars line.
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Now, this is purely speculatation, but I have approached my international business and markets and competition lecturers at Uni (work pays me to do a degree), but after giving them a run down on the situation (SW Ep 7) and they made the point that it would make sense from a business perspective to start throwing out massive restocks now in an effort to focus on the new SW sets that will be their flagship in an effort to focus their attention on those.

 

As to what is retiring, who knows. I think it will be here today gone tomorrow kind of affair.

I think I understand what you mean... and it makes sense.

My understanding: Lego is are very busy at the moment producing batches of the current sets so they will last until Xmas at the least. So when all stock levels are in the green they can focus mainly on the new Ep.7 Star Wars sets which will be the flagship for the coming holidays. Except maybe for some unexpected shortages. They want to avoid situations like last Xmas where shops were totally depleted from Lego. They need to keep the retailers happy. Cause this situation was very bad for Lego.  

Sorry, I'll rewrite and clarify when I have more than 2% battery. Check back soon, just finished chatting to the lecturers and had to write it down before I forgot :)

 

 

You forgot to add:

"SO Check back soon, just finished chatting to the lecturers and had to write it down before I forgot :) ".

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I think I understand what you mean... and it makes sense.

My understanding: Lego is are very busy at the moment producing batches of the current sets so they will last until Xmas at the least. So when all stock levels are in the green they can focus mainly on the new Ep.7 Star Wars sets which will be the flagship for the coming holidays. Except maybe for some unexpected shortages. They want to avoid situations like last Xmas where shops were totally depleted from Lego. They need to keep the retailers happy. Cause this situation was very bad for Lego.  

You forgot to add:

"SO Check back soon, just finished chatting to the lecturers and had to write it down before I forgot :) ".

Haha, yes thank you. It's perfectly constructed as to what I was trying to relay.

When I'm excitable, my expressions are far from any recognisable language :) 

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As to what is retiring, who knows. I think it will be here today gone tomorrow kind of affair.

That's pretty much how it always works and there are always people who look around before and say "this set is everywhere, I have nothing to worry about," but end up afterwards saying "where the heck have they all gone."
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I think I understand what you mean... and it makes sense.

My understanding: Lego is are very busy at the moment producing batches of the current sets so they will last until Xmas at the least. So when all stock levels are in the green they can focus mainly on the new Ep.7 Star Wars sets which will be the flagship for the coming holidays. Except maybe for some unexpected shortages. They want to avoid situations like last Xmas where shops were totally depleted from Lego. They need to keep the retailers happy. Cause this situation was very bad for Lego.  

You forgot to add:

"SO Check back soon, just finished chatting to the lecturers and had to write it down before I forgot :) ".

I'm on my laptop now and am able to hopefully shed some light on my ramblings.

1. Spoke to my lecturers (2x professors, one in Markets and Competition and the other International Business).

2. Gave them a quick overview of the antics that LEGO has been pumping out.

3. The conclusions that Cigilone has came to, "apparently" LEGO is trying to create enough stock to tie them over until the end of the year. This will allow them to slow down production on non-SW ep7 sets and shift their focus and energy into flooding the market with the SW line. 

4. (My thoughts) Are we pissing off LEGO by constantly depleting their "reserve" stocks, thus potentially creating a shortage of non-SW related sets towards the end of the year (If point 3 is correct)?

 

Hopefully that makes more sense, if not, I'm going to run away!

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Makes total sense. I read #4 as: TLG is responding to a changing and somewhat unpredictable marketplace. They have to keep lots of irons in the fire (sorry, maybe just an American expression)--many different sets/lines in production--to satiate their growing market/consumers, but doing so creates production and logistics problems. 

Thanks for sharing! 

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All this I can perfectly aline with my previous statement. That either nothing will retire for the coming period or suddenly many sets will retire at once. Due to Lego not being able to keep up with demand. Thus forcing them making decisions on sets to retire. Maybe even unexpected early retirements. Who knows? 

From what I've heared since last year is that Lego is having production issues. The hoard is not making it any easier for Lego to make plans when they jump on every sold out or OoS sets. Also the run on the JW sets lately is making things more complicated.

Edited by Ciglione
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All this I can perfectly aline with my previous statement. That either nothing will retire for the coming period or suddenly many sets will retire at once. Due to Lego not being able to keep up with demand. Thus forcing them making decisions on sets to retire. Maybe even unexpected early retirements. Who knows? 

From what I've heared since last year is that Lego is having production issues. The hoard is not making it any easier for Lego to make plans when they jump on every sold out or OoS sets. Also the run on the JW sets lately is making things more complicated.

I'm thinking retirement is pretty much set several months in advance. Maybe years--as soon as a set is produced, TLG has a sense of its lifespan.  Knowing how LEGO operates (i.e., the quality of their business model), I'm pretty sure they do have projected production lifespans upon launch. They study the sales data and trends. A set is effectively "retired" long before we purchase the last box. Seal codes give us some clue, but we have little ideas about the size of production runs, etc. Even the EU stock tracker has proven somewhat mysterious and oddly inconsistent.

Just a guess like everyone else's, but I agree it becomes complicated when a set's sales jumps like Red 5 did early this year. All of a sudden, a set has altered its sales path and doesn't provide a clear trend. I think Red 5 was likely on track for retirement this spring, but resellers smelled blood and really messed with the data. Just a hunch based on the looooong backorder time (close to three months for one of my orders). 

Either way, its fun to speculate. :) 

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All this I can perfectly aline with my previous statement. That either nothing will retire for the coming period or suddenly many sets will retire at once. Due to Lego not being able to keep up with demand. Thus forcing them making decisions on sets to retire. Maybe even unexpected early retirements. Who knows? 

From what I've heared since last year is that Lego is having production issues. The hoard is not making it any easier for Lego to make plans when they jump on every sold out or OoS sets. Also the run on the JW sets lately is making things more complicated.

Why would you think that nothing would retire?  TLG is absolutely going to retire sets sometime between now and 12/31.  That is a certainty.  What those sets will be is a question, but there is no chance that we will make it to 1/1/16 without any sets retiring.

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