Retiring Soon - open speculation

[dcdfan]

Btw, Triple EEE is tagged with "Retiring Soon".

for about 6 months now...

[tacsniper]

Btw, Triple EEE is tagged with "Retiring Soon".

I think its been tagged with that for the last few months. At one point the limit was bumped up to 5 for a period.

Edited July 17, 2015 by tacsniper

[No More Monkeys]

So I emailed TRU about the JW Polybags and I got a response the line is being discontinued? Can this explain why 75920 is already "Sold Out" at LEGO Shop at Home. Why we are seeing 20% off and why some Americans are reporting some JW sets on clearance in their local WM? Can this be real? I personally don't believe it is, as this is printing mad money for Lego. At the end of the day, it all depends on what contracts they have with whoever produced JW. You think Lego will at least have the license the produce/sell till Christmas.

shocking...

[dcdfan]

So I emailed TRU about the JW Polybags and I got a response the line is being discontinued? Can this explain why 75920 is already "Sold Out" at LEGO Shop at Home. Why we are seeing 20% off and why some Americans are reporting some JW sets on clearance in their local WM? Can this be real? I personally don't believe it is, as this is printing mad money for Lego. At the end of the day, it all depends on what contracts they have with whoever produced JW. You think Lego will at least have the license the produce/sell till Christmas.

Can anyone recall another license that ended so soon...? glancing at the past licensed lines, I see nothing close (other than The Lone Ranger). So, I don't buy it...

[tacsniper]

Just something to chew on as well... Walmart.ca have not received any stock lately. They've been sold out of most sets for the last 2-3 weeks. Only T.Rex is left available in limited stock.

Could big chain stores being conservative in ordering and factoring shelf space for xmas? Planning a lot of shelf space for Star Wars products near the end of fall and Winter?

Edited July 17, 2015 by tacsniper

[Foxhound]

I think its been tagged with that for the last few months. At one point the limit was bumped up to 5 for a period.

It is retired in Germany for nearly 6 months and its price on ebay.de is at ~200-210€, while its fully available at Lego.us. Pretty remarkable.

[Alpinemaps]

Can anyone recall another license that ended so soon...? glancing at the past licensed lines, I see nothing close (other than The Lone Ranger). So, I don't buy it...

I agree with you.  Going to use your post to launch into a rant, dcdfan (this isn't directed at you).  I'm getting a little tired of the "it's sold out, it's over!" on sets that are 3 months old.

Seems like I'm seeing it everywhere on the site.  Sets are sold out, they're going to be gone - even though they're at their initial launch.  People are already talking about some of the Star Wars sets (like the Snowspeeder), on their way out, because it's sold out, or a retailer has it on sale/clearance, the new Star Wars movie is coming, etc.

Let's be honest for a minute - how much time do you think Lego puts into set development?  They plan *way* into the future.  The designer of the new Batmobile for the Batman v Superman movie set was talking about this at Comic Con. He'd had started development at least 6 months ago.  And this is a set that won't be out until January.  So, there's a good year involved in the cycle from development to hitting the shelves.  Lego is not going to stop a product on the shelf 2-3 months after it shows up.

For everyone that thinks that's what is happening here - can you proof it?  Can you show me where that's happened in the past?

There's only TWO sets I can think of in the last couple of years that were available for a very short time - Arctic Supply Plane and Zombies.

We've all figured there is a production issue with the ASP.  I'm going to guess that some part failed, on large scale production, to meet quality standards.  Zombies - there's one piece that's especially rare in that set - the bride's hair.  That hair style is available in other sets; but that hair color is not.  I'm going to guess that it left us early, again, for production / quality control issues.

Other than that, we just don't see sets or entire product lines only last 3-6 months.  It just doesn't seem to happen.  So much speculation, but it never seems to pan out.

Lego is not going to pull all of the recently released Star Wars sets to have room for the TFA sets.  They're complimentary to one another.  Why only have TFA sets on the shelf when you can also have Snowspeeders and other sets?  I walk in for a new X-Wing, and I'll walk out with that plus a few other sets.

I'm not sure if all this talk about sets retiring 3 months after they hit the shelves is to scare new investors, because people are scared themselves, or a smokescreen.  I'm all about speculating, but let's be realistic with our speculation, and give some good examples, and not just widely assume that everything is already on the EOL list the moment it hits the street.

[hepcatpunk]

Jurassic sets are not retiring.  LEGO may not have foreseen the high demand--Jurassic Park 3 didn't exactly set the box office on fire, add to that it's been over a decade since we've had a Jurassic movie, so who really knew what this would do---so they may have under produced initially, but to think they're not going to make more seems extremely unlikely to me.

[exciter1]

I'm getting a little tired of the "it's sold out, it's over!" on sets that are 3 months old.

Is Wall-E retiring soon and marked right along side the Exo Suit?

[TLKC]

Is Wall-E retiring soon and marked right along side the Exo Suit?

it's retired already ;-)

[Battrax]

it's retired already ;-)

That explains why we have not seen it anywhere for sale!

[trekgate502]

One thing in LEGO is a true collector or hobbyist will always want something retired that they can't get anymore.  That is why some of these sets keep going up so high.  I recently built EEE. What did i do the day after I completed it?  I looked up all the older maersk ships to see if there were any others i wanted.  So when that new DS comes out and someone builds that they will look at previous models and 10188 will be what most will want.  

I'm not a big DS fan and have made that clear before.  Been getting them in for years  on my loads and always sold them. Just not one i wanted to build up.  However if there is opportunity to make money on something I will gladly buy.  

Brother raven, ninjutsu of the fine art of SQFLL, bastian of all things anti Death Star has seen the light of the DS.  I feel at peace.

looks like Grevious' Wheel Bike (75040) has gone call to check at LEGO Shop at Home.  Now its a small set so that does not mean it will definitely go to sold out, but it is on sale just about everywhere at the moment so couldnt hurt to keep an eye on it, and grab some if you have a quota you want to hit.

thanks for the heads up

[tacsniper]

Adding to the TRU reply I got earlier today, a member on here from Australia posted this. What is the supply in stores in the USA?

This notice was posted in a FB group we have here in Australia. Relates to Target

 

[cladner]

 

For everyone that thinks that's what is happening here - can you proof it?  Can you show me where that's happened in the past?

There's only TWO sets I can think of in the last couple of years that were available for a very short time - Arctic Supply Plane and Zombies.

 

SW 75039 - V-wing came out in Feb 2014 and was done by November 2014.

75041- Vulture Droid - Feb 2014-Feb2015 just barely a year.

who cares about these dinky sets which will be remade again in 2017.

As far as JW early EOL goes, if they do retire early - super graavy.

I'm accumulating JW sets because they have potential to be dark horse for xmas winner.  JW bluray release will be in October-November & if they are not big this year, long term its a no brainer.  Dinosaurs+LEGO = $$$.  

 

My gut is telling me though Raptor Escape is done for whatever reason.  Any other set that goes and stays to SOLD OUT, that's a sign its over.  I'm not overthinking this one and letting the short availability head-fake allow me to miss out on that potential profit. and i still have another 74 days left on my receipts.

Edited July 18, 2015 by cladner

[GhostDad]

I just had to ship a EEE across the US for a friend who ran out of stock and it was profitable for him.  In the US you can still get the EEE for below MSRP from Lego when you factor in promos and rewards so I actually placed an order in the last couple of weeks.  Everything in life is not instant returns.

I just pulled this quote from a post in the Lego R2 D2 thread from September 2014.  

This set is available everywhere (except maybe Walmart.com) in the US - where Star Wars sets are normally sold out before the rest of the world because of high demand. So why do you guys / gals think it's retiring? Am I missing something? 

About the time mscheaf said that I was GPS locating R2's and acquiring them.  I would give anything (at close to msrp) to have back the 50 that I flipped for $40 margin each.  I have some but on them I regret the quick flip.

It has not even been a year and it has over doubled in the states.

Trek, I'm disappointed in you.  After all your professed love of R2, you flipped the poor guy 50 times for $40 profit each?  Let's have some consistency here!

On the bubble topic, I'll say two things:

1. The lego vs. house flipping comparison only works if most investors buy lego sets on credit.  The problem home buyers had in the late 2000's is that they couldn't make their mortgage payments, and some would-be investors suddenly found themselves unable to flip their homes for a profit.  As with margin debt and stocks, it's that slow bleed of interest payments that can turn a price plateau into a roller coaster headed down.  I never buy lego sets on credit (which is to say, I pay my credit card bills in full each month).  I assume that is the common practice here.

2. I think it is important to stay focused on what sets you're buying.  If you wouldn't consider a set, even for your personal collection (to build) before it approaches retirement, don't let an assumed imminent retirement change your mind.  Crap that's at or near EOL is still crap.  This rule has me avoiding 10236, for example.  It looks cool and I believe it will be gone by the end of the year, but ewok and Endor-themed sets have a terrible track record.  I think it's fair to compare EV, being a playset, to a set like Battle of Endor, which has been an underwhelming investment to say the least.

It is retired in Germany for nearly 6 months and its price on ebay.de is at ~200-210€, while its fully available at Lego.us. Pretty remarkable.

Maybe seeing that performance on eBay.de has American resellers buying, well, almost anything else instead...

[dcdfan]

Jeff just posted in the DD forum that 70164 is 40% off @ Amazon (also Target). This only came out 1 year ago but I think it's almost definitely going away. Another member posted a week ago(?) that three of the Ultra Agents weren't even going to be coming to Europe, I believe it was 70171, 70172 & 70173. I'm not saying there's money to be made, I'm just saying at the least these could become very rare...

[Alpinemaps]

SW 75039 - V-wing came out in Feb 2014 and was done by November 2014.

75041- Vulture Droid - Feb 2014-Feb2015 just barely a year.

who cares about these dinky sets which will be remade again in 2017.

As far as JW early EOL goes, if they do retire early - super graavy.

I'm accumulating JW sets because they have potential to be dark horse for xmas winner.  JW bluray release will be in October-November & if they are not big this year, long term its a no brainer.  Dinosaurs+LEGO = $$$.  

 

My gut is telling me though Raptor Escape is done for whatever reason.  Any other set that goes and stays to SOLD OUT, that's a sign its over.  I'm not overthinking this one and letting the short availability head-fake allow me to miss out on that potential profit. and i still have another 74 days left on my receipts.

My bad English in your quote of me aside (how embarrassing!), we've now got four sets that have followed this pattern.

That's still a very small number compared to the number of sets Lego as in active production at any time.  At least you provided some proof!

My take on JW - if they are going away sooner rather than later, then it's due to a production issue (IMO) not a desire to retire the line.

[jay4e]

SW 75039 - V-wing came out in Feb 2014 and was done by November 2014.

75041- Vulture Droid - Feb 2014-Feb2015 just barely a year.

who cares about these dinky sets which will be remade again in 2017.

As far as JW early EOL goes, if they do retire early - super graavy.

I'm accumulating JW sets because they have potential to be dark horse for xmas winner.  JW bluray release will be in October-November & if they are not big this year, long term its a no brainer.  Dinosaurs+LEGO = $$$.  

 

My gut is telling me though Raptor Escape is done for whatever reason.  Any other set that goes and stays to SOLD OUT, that's a sign its over.  I'm not overthinking this one and letting the short availability head-fake allow me to miss out on that potential profit. and i still have another 74 days left on my receipts.

My gut tells me that JW line has not gone EOL.  Though its likely production will not keep up with demand through the holiday season.  This would mean there is plenty of money to be made in the short term.

as for RE well yes my gut is telling me the same thing.  Its obvious LEGO has fulfilled their initial contract, and does not have to product more at this time.  It is possible there is a production requirement for the holiday season, however given that it is walmart and not TRU, that is likely to not flood the market.  Given that JW is a short run theme and RE is a walmart exclusive, there is no reason to believe LEGO could not just pull the plug at this point.  Their production capacity is finite, and unless they are under contract to produce more, and/or walmart is willing to pay a premium (im going to go with no on that one), then this set could likely be done.  I think all the precedence you need here is zombies. 

Edited July 20, 2015 by jay4e

[iahawks550]

Retailer shelf space is probably the biggest reason to retire the JW line early. Sure, Lego could keep the line around in house, or the big retailers may keep the line around for online sales, but shelf space is most definitely an issue. I think the fact Wal-Mart is having clearance nationwide on older SW sets is a sign. There may be a restock, but I don't think that's the case. 

[jay4e]

Retailer shelf space is probably the biggest reason to retire the JW line early. Sure, Lego could keep the line around in house, or the big retailers may keep the line around for online sales, but shelf space is most definitely an issue. I think the fact Wal-Mart is having clearance nationwide on older SW sets is a sign. There may be a restock, but I don't think that's the case. 

Fear the dreaded TRU "exclusive"...  I could see JW going that way.  They need something to fill up all the Chima and Galaxy Squad space...

[exciter1]

Fear the dreaded TRU "exclusive"...  I could see JW going that way.  They need something to fill up all the Chima and Galaxy Squad space...

They do have Scooby Doo coming along.

[trekgate502]

They do have Scooby Doo coming along.

Where are you, we've got some work to do

[thoroakenfelder]

SW 75039 - V-wing came out in Feb 2014 and was done by November 2014.

75041- Vulture Droid - Feb 2014-Feb2015 just barely a year.

who cares about these dinky sets which will be remade again in 2017.

These specific sets, I kind of doubt will be making a reappearance anytime soon. They weren't popular sets any of the times they were released. They're from the prequels. They had no hero figures packed in, and the V-Wing had almost no screen presence. That's probably why they gave them a last hurrah before moving on to Rebels/Ep. VII. Besides, I can still find some of these, even so long after retirement, and it's not like the secondary market prices reflect any increase in value, indicating no interest in the set.

"Anything Star Wars is gold" is a mentality that I have seen since the 90's, and in my youth caused me to ****** up anything I had seen at what I felt was a decent price. 20 years later, I still have stock of ROTJ era buttons and pop up combs, magazines, and other junk that are definitely not gold. Sure there will be enhanced interest in Star Wars in December, but there will also be a glut of new products on the shelves then too. new collectors and veteran collectors will probably be scrambling to complete their TFA collections.

Sure, some of the more popular sets will probably enjoy a bump as collectors realize that they missed it, and it's not evergreen, but printing money just because it says Star Wars is silly.

 

[cladner]

These specific sets, I kind of doubt will be making a reappearance anytime soon. They weren't popular sets any of the times they were released. They're from the prequels. They had no hero figures packed in, and the V-Wing had almost no screen presence. That's probably why they gave them a last hurrah before moving on to Rebels/Ep. VII. Besides, I can still find some of these, even so long after retirement, and it's not like the secondary market prices reflect any increase in value, indicating no interest in the set.

"Anything Star Wars is gold" is a mentality that I have seen since the 90's, and in my youth caused me to ****** up anything I had seen at what I felt was a decent price. 20 years later, I still have stock of ROTJ era buttons and pop up combs, magazines, and other junk that are definitely not gold. Sure there will be enhanced interest in Star Wars in December, but there will also be a glut of new products on the shelves then too. new collectors and veteran collectors will probably be scrambling to complete their TFA collections.

Sure, some of the more popular sets will probably enjoy a bump as collectors realize that they missed it, and it's not evergreen, but printing money just because it says Star Wars is silly.

 

if you read the post this was responding to it was providing an example of a LEGO set retiring with a year or less availability at shop or home.  both are investment turds @ msrp that had a short  life. 

 

There have been 3 V-wings in the last 9 years.

There have been 3 Vulture Droids in the last 10 years.

I think we'll see them again within 3 years even with the new films.  If not, then they may actually turn out to be ok investments as a new crop of completists is awakened this December.

Edited July 20, 2015 by cladner

[Sauromosis]

Lego has had major supply issues all year.