bricketycricket Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 But there will be another death star, that i'm convinced of. They'll have other options. If one thing Lego has proven is they remake lines and the DS is one set that makes lego money, so they'll make a bigger and better one. There's always going to be a new crop of kids as long as there is a functional society. So they'll just retweek and reinvent the old sets and make them new again. Heck, the new MF, and new X-wing aren't that vastly different from the previous ones. Only the boxes are shinier, the colors are modified slightly, and the minifigures are different. So i'm definitely not going to hop on the "there will never be another set like this again" bandwagon. There probably will be. Those are non-exclusives though. Remakes of exclusives are very rare, and the ones that have occurred seem to be for the purpose of updating to modern building techniques. (Sandcrawler is an example of this) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redghostx Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Judge Gredd? "He knew you would say that" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrbigz8657 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Even by conservative numbers, the person who sold the GE to you for $280 cleared $60 profit on a $150 investment in less than 12 months after it was available for msrp.So 40% CAGR on your investment isn't good enough? I'll take that anytime for what, maybe a half hour of work at most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenb99 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 One thing in LEGO is a true collector or hobbyist will always want something retired that they can't get anymore. That is why some of these sets keep going up so high. I recently built EEE. What did i do the day after I completed it? I looked up all the older maersk ships to see if there were any others i wanted. So when that new DS comes out and someone builds that they will look at previous models and 10188 will be what most will want. I'm not a big DS fan and have made that clear before. Been getting them in for years on my loads and always sold them. Just not one i wanted to build up. However if there is opportunity to make money on something I will gladly buy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyman Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Huge restock of red five for Europe per brickset. This ain't going anytime soon just yet. Restock of TB too. Back up to 700 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacsniper Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Huge restock of red five for Europe per brickset. This ain't going anytime soon just yet. Restock of TB too. Back up to 700 units. Where is the DS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyman Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Its around 300 units. It's had a steep decline in stock but these are going to resellers mainly. Smyths toys also has plenty in stock. I'm not touching this one just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildemar Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Where is the DS Careful what you wish for: DS got a small restock of about 50 units (yesterday: 284 --> today: 331). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxhound Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Tumbler was also restocked. PS is still at ~1.700 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jules_K Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Was there a restock on the EV as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildemar Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Was there a restock on the EV as well?Nope, 418 left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redcell Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 The events that have transpired over the last few weeks, and especially the last few days has spooked me (maybe a better term is shellshocked me) from investing further in many many sets, especially exclusives. I'm now convinced to quit investing in them, and just collect what my son and I like. That might offend some, actually probably many, but it's just my perception, and I have that right to be spooked. It's my money. I've already lived through the tech bubble working in IT, and rode the ship through the housing bubble living in the northern rockies. So sorry, but I probably will laugh hysterically when it does come back and the reseller snatchers go on another invasion. It just proves what i'm perceiving. It doesn't sound like you have the guts to really make money doing this or the perspective to analyze the market properly. Laugh your ass off all you want at all the foolish resellers...I'll just keep laughing all the way to the bank. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM123 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 It doesn't sound like you have the guts to really make money doing this or the perspective to analyze the market properly. Laugh your ass off all you want at all the foolish resellers...I'll just keep laughing all the way to the bank.There is indeed still plenty of money to be made with good market analysis and the right buying strategy. I laugh my ass off when people are frustrated about getting a 1% interest rate hahaha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 The signs I am getting is that in the first weeks after retirement of an exclusive some awake end-consumers will buy it just over RRP. But mostly resellers who missed the boat or who did not reach their quota will buy from you. Till a certain pricepoint where they think it is the max. And then sales slow down. And we are all waiting for that rich kid that really wants that old retired set. And is willing to pay a premium. They are still out there. Yes! But please remember. Most of these rich kids started investing on their own. So they already have some copies stashed away. The true only end-consumer, does it really still exist? Who are they? Certainly not the the greeks! They will be happy to be able to survive the next coming years. Or maybe other ordinary people who's wealth is declining? Let us please all agree that it is becoming harder and harder. Competition is growing. I also do not believe in a fatal bubble. But this cannot go on like this. People (including me) will get burned one day. When? Maybe faster than we think. We will see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 2 separate people that are pretty reliable on cheapassgamer and reddit have posted about it. One of them says that DS will have a restock and is going to the end of the year. Both are pretty certain that Ewok Village is done. The reddit person said that Ewok Village is being replaced by something similar, which could allude to the Hoth set that was brought up in the last few days. Again, I am not saying this is fact, just what others have posted. Ewok Village has been on the EOL bubble for awhile now, so that is no big surprise to people who pay attention. As for a restock of the 10188, just like every other set near retirement, you might see it come in and out of stock. But everyday that passes with it being Sold Out, the less chance you have of that. I think LEGO is clearing out old inventory for these new STAR WARS movies. There is going to be so much hype, LEGO wants to have their inventory ready to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 But there will be another death star, that i'm convinced of. They'll have other options. If one thing Lego has proven is they remake lines and the DS is one set that makes lego money, so they'll make a bigger and better one. There's always going to be a new crop of kids as long as there is a functional society. So they'll just retweek and reinvent the old sets and make them new again. Heck, the new MF, and new X-wing aren't that vastly different from the previous ones. Only the boxes are shinier, the colors are modified slightly, and the minifigures are different. So i'm definitely not going to hop on the "there will never be another set like this again" bandwagon. There probably will be. I've been reading your posts and I'm sure there are many that feel the same way. My advice to you is to enjoy the LEGO brick. Buy a set to build and one to save long term. Don't try to flip. Sleep at night. One day, these sets in the back of your closet (and even the ones you built) will be worth quite a bit. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I've been reading your posts and I'm sure there are many that feel the same way. My advice to you is to enjoy the LEGO brick. Buy a set to build and one to save long term. Don't try to flip. Sleep at night. One day, these sets in the back of your closet (and even the ones you built) will be worth quite a bit.This! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 (edited) Yeah, I know. .. everyone is laughing to the bank. NOW!But, for perspective the same thing was said back in 2006 with realtors. Back then the line was similar "yeah, this is easy money, just buy it and sell it at this "overinflated price", and your money will double in 5 years". My wife worked in real estate, and we knew it was going to be bad. So, we didn't buy that line at that time either, and when the bubble burst so many of our friends and neighbors went down. A few years ago when the market was rock bottom and interest rates were good was the time to reinvest, and we did. Now the market is going back up again. Sometimes it's good to constantly reanalyze the market. I just think over the next few years the lego after market is going to do a recorrect. Ed is right…and yes, I do sleep at night. I just think it's going to get to the point, where resellers are just holding and storing too much stock of large lego sets that may land them a few bucks as the market goes through a correction. Edited July 17, 2015 by fossilrock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 TLG knows what it is doing, and flooding the market with exclusives just because they can isn't it. There's a lot of chest-thumping and one-upsmanship on this site when it comes to buying and the size of one's... um, storage unit, but investors need to have a thick skin. I read the same stuff and think, "how am I ever going to sell this stuff?" Then R2D2 goes and more than doubles in less than 12 months. People said the same about that set being over hoarded.The market is fine, it's just that no one is getting rich overnight. I'm okay with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Yeah, I know. .. everyone is laughing to the bank. NOW!But, for perspective the same thing was said back in 2006 with realtors. Back then the line was similar "yeah, this is easy money, just buy it and sell it at this "overinflated price", and your money will double in 5 years". My wife worked in real estate, and we knew it was going to be bad. So, we didn't buy that line at that time either, and when the bubble burst so many of our friends and neighbors went down. A few years ago when the market was rock bottom and interest rates were good was the time to reinvest, and we did. Now the market is going back up again. Sometimes it's good to constantly reanalyze the market. I just think over the next few years the lego after market is going to do a recorrect. Ed is right…and yes, I do sleep at night. I just think it's going to get to the point, where resellers are just holding and storing too much stock of large lego sets that may land them a few bucks as the market goes through a correction. Ed said for you. He did not say for everyone. There is risk. you have a valid view to contribute but in my opinion your opinion has been made well known and I wish you would contribute something else. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Ok... just to ease my mind I made an analysis of the quantity of sales of some retired exclusives (NISB) from Ebay Germany. I looked at how many copies were sold in July 2015 so far. We have had 16 days this month so far. And I know July is not the best month to look at. But it can give an idea. Also do not forget there were some sales that were quite economic.I will let you guys and gals make your own conclusion. 3 x 10224 TH4 x 10228 HH8 x 10225 R25 x 10221 SSD7 x 10211 GE9 x 10241 EEE2 x 10937 AA5 x 10197 FB1 x 10226 SC2 x 10227 B-Wing7 x 10233 HE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Ok... just to ease my mind I made an analysis of the quantity of sales of some retired exclusives (NISB) from Ebay Germany. I looked at how many copies were sold in July 2015 so far. We have had 16 days this month so far. And I know July is not the best month to look at. But it can give an idea. Also do not forget there were some sales that were quite economic.I will let you guys and gals make your own conclusion. 3 x 10224 TH4 x 10228 HH8 x 10225 R25 x 10221 SSD7 x 10211 GE9 x 10241 EEE2 x 10937 AA5 x 10197 FB1 x 10226 SC2 x 10227 B-Wing7 x 10233 HE I draw this I had no idea horizon express is doing so well I should not have quick flipped all of mine and seeing that many EEE makes me think I should get a few more seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 (edited) You already said it: July. By TLG's own numbers, 60% of sales take place in December. (Inside Lego.) Edited July 17, 2015 by biking_tiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redcell Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Yeah, I know. .. everyone is laughing to the bank. NOW!But, for perspective the same thing was said back in 2006 with realtors. Back then the line was similar "yeah, this is easy money, just buy it and sell it at this "overinflated price", and your money will double in 5 years". My wife worked in real estate, and we knew it was going to be bad. So, we didn't buy that line at that time either, and when the bubble burst so many of our friends and neighbors went down. A few years ago when the market was rock bottom and interest rates were good was the time to reinvest, and we did. Now the market is going back up again. Sometimes it's good to constantly reanalyze the market. I just think over the next few years the lego after market is going to do a recorrect. Ed is right…and yes, I do sleep at night. I just think it's going to get to the point, where resellers are just holding and storing too much stock of large lego sets that may land them a few bucks as the market goes through a correction. The real estate market circa 2006 is not an apt comparison to the Lego resale market. The real estate market crashed largely because the price increases were fueled by cheap debt which was fueled by demand for mortgages which was fueled by investor demand for "safe" securities with high yields. Once the front side of the market (i.e., the mortgage payments) were unable to sustain the back end of the market (i.e., the securitized debt obligations), the whole thing crashed. Obviously there were many other factors that came into play, but that crash was driven by factors that simply aren't at play in the Lego market. For most Lego sets, the secondary market price appreciation is driven purely by supply and demand. As the supply shrinks, consumer demand drives the prices up. Eventually, the demand slackens and prices plateau or fall slightly, but the prices are fundamentally driven by consumer demand and until that disappears, the market will continue to roll. This is not to say that margins will stay as high as they have been historically...we've already seen margins tighten significantly and that is a trend that will continue as more people become involved in reselling, but the only way that a recorrection would happen is if consumer demand for Lego dried up over night and I have seen absolutely nothing to indicate that is any type of threat at the moment. Maybe if TLG decides to come out with a line of Nazi or confederate flag sets, that could happen, but, otherwise, it's hard to see the consumer market turning violently against Lego. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 (edited) I draw this I had no idea horizon express is doing so well I should not have quick flipped all of mine and seeing that many EEE makes me think I should get a few more seriously.Yeah... but when you analyse the sales prices as well... average sale price for 10233 HE is 137 euro. Which is not shockingly high. That is why they are sold in that quantity. I may presume. What if the average asking price would be 200 euro. Would it sell in those quantities as well?EEE is doing well/better cause it was a lego exclusive. Could not be bought at other retailers. Thus more scarce. Not overly hoarded. Edited July 17, 2015 by Ciglione Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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