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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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Other places besides BP ?

 

2 separate people that are pretty reliable on cheapassgamer and reddit have posted about it. One of them says that DS will have a restock and is going to the end of the year. Both are pretty certain that Ewok Village is done. The reddit person said that Ewok Village is being replaced by something similar, which could allude to the Hoth set that was brought up in the last few days. Again, I am not saying this is fact, just what others have posted.

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2 separate people that are pretty reliable on cheapassgamer and reddit have posted about it. One of them says that DS will have a restock and is going to the end of the year. Both are pretty certain that Ewok Village is done. The reddit person said that Ewok Village is being replaced by something similar, which could allude to the Hoth set that was brought up in the last few days. Again, I am not saying this is fact, just what others have posted.

Good enough for me in for 2.

Just teasing I was going to buy 2 more anyways...

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Red 5 was supposed to be done.. but each time it comes in stock, they are snatched up at light speed, and lego sales reps must be like "hhehehe we can milk this one for another round..fire up the production line and let's oversaturate the reseller market one last time.".  Then it's wiped out, and they are like "woah, send them another line of crack, they'll just lap it up".  Tower of Orthanc just came back again..  Pet Shop continues to rise from the dead.   I'm sure EV will have multiple restocks again, because there's always going to be another invasion of the reseller snatchers to wipe them up, and then they can fire up the next round.  I'm going to laugh my butt off if DS comes back for another round...  Isn't there a commercial out there?  Something about knowing when to say when.

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Guest brickcrazyhouse

Does anyone know where the ignore member feature is since the upgrade? 

lick on your name (in the top right corner of the top of a the page) for the drop down and then under settings 4th option down

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Red 5 was supposed to be done.. but each time it comes in stock, they are snatched up at light speed, and lego sales reps must be like "hhehehe we can milk this one for another round..fire up the production line and let's oversaturate the reseller market one last time.".  Then it's wiped out, and they are like "woah, send them another line of crack, they'll just lap it up".  Tower of Orthanc just came back again..  Pet Shop continues to rise from the dead.   I'm sure EV will have multiple restocks again, because there's always going to be another invasion of the reseller snatchers to wipe them up, and then they can fire up the next round.  I'm going to laugh my butt off if DS comes back for another round...  Isn't there a commercial out there?  Something about knowing when to say when.

Seriously dude? Come on... While I love the phrase :"reseller snatchers" can we refrain from "laughing our butts off" if DS comes back in stock?

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Seriously dude? Come on... While I love the phrase :"reseller snatchers" can we refrain from "laughing our butts off" if DS comes back in stock?

The events that have transpired over the last few weeks, and especially the last few days has spooked me (maybe a better term is shellshocked me) from investing further in many many sets, especially exclusives.  I'm now convinced to quit investing in them, and just collect what my son and I like.  That might offend some, actually probably many, but it's just my perception, and I have that right to be spooked.  It's my money.  I've already lived through the tech bubble working in IT, and rode the ship through the housing bubble living in the northern rockies.  So sorry, but I probably will laugh hysterically when it does come back and the reseller snatchers go on another invasion.  It just proves what i'm perceiving.  

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The events that have transpired over the last few weeks, and especially the last few days has spooked me (maybe a better term is shellshocked me) from investing further in many many sets, especially exclusives.  I'm now convinced to quit investing in them, and just collect what my son and I like.  That might offend some, actually probably many, but it's just my perception, and I have that right to be spooked.  It's my money.  I've already lived through the tech bubble working in IT, and rode the ship through the housing bubble living in the northern rockies.  So sorry, but I probably will laugh hysterically when it does come back and the reseller snatchers go on another invasion.  It just proves what i'm perceiving.  

So, you are part of a community that provides info and a forum, but call the other people in the community "snatchers" and hope that they get screwed basically. It is one thing to worry and another to be rude.

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I think there's some truth to what he's saying. The horde is acting, well... more horde-ish. My feeling is that we'll all have to work harder for our money. I don't think there'll be a giant bubble implosion, but the returns will be smaller and smaller. Those five sets of exclusive "X" will be harder and harder to sell. I was recently in the market for a GE and made a few best offers on ebay. After I had purchased one for $280 shipped, I had two sellers that had rejected me send offers of $265 and $270. It's getting harder folks and if you don't have the stomach or funds for it, it's best that you get out. Buying a ton a exclusives and sitting on them is not going to work very much longer with this many folks in the game. But, is there money to be made? Most definitely. 

Edited by pete411
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The events that have transpired over the last few weeks, and especially the last few days has spooked me (maybe a better term is shellshocked me) from investing further in many many sets, especially exclusives.  I'm now convinced to quit investing in them, and just collect what my son and I like.  That might offend some, actually probably many, but it's just my perception, and I have that right to be spooked.  It's my money.  I've already lived through the tech bubble working in IT, and rode the ship through the housing bubble living in the northern rockies.  So sorry, but I probably will laugh hysterically when it does come back and the reseller snatchers go on another invasion.  It just proves what i'm perceiving.  

Alrighty... let's turn this around. Nobody's saying you can't be spooked... What has spooked you? I frankly don't get it? Are you suggesting that resellers snatching last runs of a set means the market will be flooded? Or that you're not willing to wait for the time required to make a profit? Too risky for you?

As for investing in what you like, I think you'd find it offends very few people. It's a strategy used by MANY people here myself included. I like LEGO, I invest in it!!

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So, you are part of a community that provides info and a forum, but call the other people in the community "snatchers" and hope that they get screwed basically. It is one thing to worry and another to be rude.

I don't want to see people get screwed, but the writing is on the wall if you pay attention to statistics.  That's all i'm saying. 
 

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I think there's some truth to what he's saying. The horde is acting, well... more horde-ish. My feeling is that we'll all have to work harder for our money. I don't think there'll be a giant bubble implosion, but the returns will be smaller and smaller. Those five sets of exclusive "X" will be harder and harder to sell. I was recently in the market for a GE and made a few best offers on ebay. After I had purchased one for $280 shipped, I had two sellers that had rejected me send offers of $265 and $270. It's getting harder folks and if you don't have the stomach or funds for it, it's best that you get out. Buying a ton a exclusives and sitting on them is not going to work very much longer with this many folks in the game. Is there money to be made? Most definitely. 

Even by conservative numbers, the person who sold the GE to you for $280 cleared $60 profit on a $150 investment in less than 12 months after it was available for msrp.

So 40% CAGR on your investment isn't good enough?  

 

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Alrighty... let's turn this around. Nobody's saying you can't be spooked... What has spooked you? I frankly don't get it? Are you suggesting that resellers snatching last runs of a set means the market will be flooded? Or that you're not willing to wait for the time required to make a profit? Too risky for you?

As for investing in what you like, I think you'd find it offends very few people. It's a strategy used by MANY people here myself included. I like LEGO, I invest in it!!

The problem is that a majority of sets at the end of life are just moving straight into the hands of resellers for investment.  When you look at a thread, and anytime pet shop comes in and you have 30 people all saying "in for my 2" and they wipe them out within a day, and then the next day it comes on again, and they wipe those out, and that is repeated 100s of times, and over thousands of sets, it's going to set a precedence later on.  Lego's sales reps aren't stupid.  They are playing the resellers like a fiddle.  They are going to ride this wave, and make more money.  Why wouldn't they?  They don't lose if you are sitting on 10 boxes of something they sold you.  They made their money and moved on.  

When you look at how high the supply is for many sets that are horded, I don't think the demand is there when you weigh the stats on this site.  Sorry, I think prices are hyperinflated by resellers..

I'm all for waiting.  In fact, most of the exclusives I have invested in, i'm more than likely holding on to them for a decade or more.  Many of them I only have an extra copy or two.. .so i'm not losing much.  But, id be foolish to keep buying extras.  That's what i'm saying.  And if the market collapses, and i'm left with a load of plastic bricks, we'll I guess I can build a big plastic mobile storage shed out of it.

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Even by conservative numbers, the person who sold the GE to you for $280 cleared $60 profit on a $150 investment in less than 12 months after it was available for msrp.

So 40% CAGR on your investment isn't good enough?  

 

That's a fine return. I don't think the return on PS will be the same though in the same time period.

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People foregI don't want to see people get screwed, but the writing is on the wall if you pay attention to statistics.  That's all i'm saying. 
 

One thing that cannot be understated is how people react when something retires an is "gone" for good. Just because "re-sellers" are buying the Death Star now, does not keep someone that isn't into LEGO now from being into down the road and wanting to get the Death Star. At that point, they won't have any options but to buy from "re-sellers." It is all speculation at this point.

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Sorry, I think prices are hyperinflated by resellers..


Personally I think that's why so many of them are winners... Consumers get pissed, but they want-want-want so they buy at the inflated prices. LEGO likes having high secondary prices because it validates their MSRP. eBay and Amazon (and Brick Classifieds :)) like it for obvious reasons giving a global platform to sell the goods.

Are the profits what they used to be? Doesn't seem like it... are the profits still very good? Yup.

I understand where you're coming from, but I respectfully disagree that it's too risky. If the DS really retires this month or in December .. it'll prove that only diamonds last forever... nope, that's wrong too. Live Star will eventually be the Death Star and then the Money Star.

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One thing that cannot be understated is how people react when something retires an is "gone" for good. Just because "re-sellers" are buying the Death Star now, does not keep someone that isn't into LEGO now from being into down the road and wanting to get the Death Star. At that point, they won't have any options but to buy from "re-sellers." It is all speculation at this point.

But there will be another death star, that i'm convinced of.  They'll have other options.  If one thing Lego has proven is they remake lines and the DS is one set that makes lego money, so they'll make a bigger and better one.  There's always going to be a new crop of kids as long as there is a functional society.  So they'll just retweek and reinvent the old sets and make them new again.  Heck, the new MF, and new X-wing aren't that vastly different from the previous ones.  Only the boxes are shinier, the colors are modified slightly, and the minifigures are different.  So i'm definitely not going to hop on the "there will never be another set like this again" bandwagon. There probably will be. 
 

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