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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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Hasn't anybody thought about the idea that maybe Lego won't retire anything anymore for quite a while? 

We had rumours about several sets retiring since January. But they are all still alive and kicking. For example: PS, R5, PC, DS, ToO, etc.

If Lego stops retiring the big exclusives our craft might die within a few years. That would be a soft-kill of investors.

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Hasn't anybody thought about the idea that maybe Lego won't retire anything anymore for quite a while? 

We had rumours about several sets retiring since January. But they are all still alive and kicking. For example: PS, R5, PC, DS, ToO, etc.

If Lego stops retiring the big exclusives our craft might die within a few years. That would be a soft-kill of investors.

No it wouldn't. They would simply have to change tactics.

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We should just ignore any possible signs of retirement and buy whatever we want. Sold out everywhere? Who cares, that happened before. Limit raised or dropped at S&H? That means nothing. TOOS? That happened all the time with other sets. Production codes from more than a year ago? We can't be really sure what those codes mean. They're pointless anyway. If you like any set as an investment, buy some. Period. 

​This is the closest to the current truth. These signs are almost sure to happen when sets retire, but they also regularly happen on their own. New and old sets together. Then what do we know when they happen? Big fat nothing. When its TOOS for 2 months then I may think about retirement but otherwise we don't know. The only indicator we have is sets' age, however even then we can only tell that newer sets won't be retired if they don't outright stink. 

Therefore best strategy currently is buying sets you like and are not new. 

Anyway I firmly believe that what we tend to see is because of production schedules and optimizing for demand.

Edited by inversion
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Hasn't anybody thought about the idea that maybe Lego won't retire anything anymore for quite a while? 

We had rumours about several sets retiring since January. But they are all still alive and kicking. For example: PS, R5, PC, DS, ToO, etc.

If Lego stops retiring the big exclusives our craft might die within a few years. That would be a soft-kill of investors.

I disagree that current indications "aren't any different" from last year.  As time goes on the greater the chance for a set to retire.  And if lego didn't retire stock, the shelves would get filled with old stock, and new stock would almost become pointless.  A lot of those sets you listed were also easier to get in January.  It's a different story today, because every single one is now OOS 30 days on the lego site, and becoming more scarce elsewhere.   There definitely are indicator patterns at play if you pay attention long enough.

You want to know how I usually determine if something is near retirement?  If it's completely gone from most of the big retailers (and their online stores), and only is left in places like TRU (at bumped up retail prices), or outlying B&Ns.  Just from the recent retirement list that was announcement, it pretty much proved this is usually the case.  That rule pretty much excludes large scale exclusives, but even still you can find them on occasion.  A set might have stopped production last year, but might take a year to a year and a half to sell out of retail.  It wouldn't be wrong to speculate that this may have already occurred with all of those sets you listed and that what's left in retail stores is it for the set.  Then the next big "retirement update" on the site will show that it in fact was going out to pasture as everyone presumed, which might not happen again until next year.  But, i'm willing to bet almost all those sets you just listed will be on the next retirement list. 

Edited by fossilrock
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Seems like PS, R5, and ToO are the ones closest to retirement.  They all seem like good choices, but I would rank them PS, R5, ToO.  Anybody else? 

​I've seen PS & PC with 15R5 dates, that's really recent. I haven't seen the others since around 05R5. Anyone else have more recent #'s on R5 or ToO?

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Seems like PS, R5, and ToO are the ones closest to retirement.  They all seem like good choices, but I would rank them PS, R5, ToO.  Anybody else? 

Given that LOTR is over and SW is about to be born again and all leaked details and characters are signs point to not sucking, I'd rank that list Red 5, Red 5,Red5.  Ok, not quite that extreme but I don't think you want to be caught under your goal on Red 5 and seems like the set that will pop the quickest and has been hardest to come by of late - at least round these parts.  I've decided Red 5 is even a set worth getting banned over so I have 3 on back order at the moment.

Don't underestimate the power of the force awakening in a crop of new 1%er SW kid fans and the synergy resulting with their nostalgic parents/grandparents to blow vast wads of cash on sold out or very hard to find UCS SW-themed LEGO sets.  Would be nice to have a few bonus Red5s stashed just in case, we get a year with GDP of 4-5% and some wage inflation.

 

Once Red 5 is really past the F5 stage of panic, and listed as SOLD OUT , & darrin gets done buying all the low hanging fruit, this set will be just like all the rest of the recent wave of retired UCS SW sets.  

 

cash-Money.thumb.jpg.087efe959b810442715.  

Of course you could go the contrarian route and corner the market on ToO and still have the same happy ending .

Everyone wins with these sets.  Just some will win more than others.

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Ferris Wheel is TOOS will ship in 30 days at LEGO Shop at Home. It's not available at any other retailer. Has a limit 1. EOL?

​Its fascinated how bad Lego company estimates the demand for new exclusive sets - again and again are such sets TOOS soon after starting their sale. How is it possible? If this happen 10 times, then I would increase the opening production extremly....

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​Its fascinated how bad Lego company estimates the demand for new exclusive sets - again and again are such sets TOOS soon after starting their sale. How is it possible? If this happen 10 times, then I would increase the opening production extremly....

​They went all in on Kwik E Marts!  There´ll be stock of that left after the show has been cancelled.

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