Retiring Soon - open speculation

[chinothegeeko]

Interesting... where do you find these graphs? Under the buy tab?

Here

 

http://brickset.com/article/13908/shop-lego-com-data-for-france-and-germany-now-available

Edited April 2, 2015 by chinothegeeko

[biking_tiger]

Yeah, that info in the US would really allow QFLL to bilk the uninformed public.

[asharerin]

Unfortunately does not look to be accurate. 10220 is showing zero stock but is available now limit 5 in europe. Only several 10188 lol? Back to the drawing board.

[chinothegeeko]

From German Tab:

 

Simpsons House http://brickset.com/sets/71006-1/The-Simpsons-House

Pet Shop http://brickset.com/sets/10218-1/Pet-Shop

Palace Cinema http://brickset.com/sets/10232-1/Palace-Cinema

Red 5 X-wing http://brickset.com/sets/10240-1/Red-Five-X-wing-Starfighter

 

Oh well, it does help to see what is selling and what isn't though. 

Edited April 2, 2015 by chinothegeeko

[Val-E]

Exactly, when someone here challenges whether something will be retired because it is not selling, now there is concrete evidence. I imagine the data stream is not real time so it will take a while to synch with web availability. Pretty sure lego will take the data down before long - it gives the big sharks too much insider information.

[redcell]

Does anyone know what the stock numbers in the graphs represent?  Are they in the thousands or single digits?  I am surprised to see such low stock levels of all of the sets that I've looked at.

[asharerin]

Exactly, when someone here challenges whether something will be retired because it is not selling, now there is concrete evidence. I imagine the data stream is not real time so it will take a while to synch with web availability. Pretty sure lego will take the data down before long - it gives the big sharks too much insider information.

 

The graphs show stock levels, not sales. If a set sells 100 units per day but they restock 99 units per day most people will infer only 1 is selling per day according to the graphs. I imagine it will be just another tool for TLG to manipulate sales.

[Val-E]

I would imagine they are single digits as this is what is available for sale on the lego web to the general public (not what has actually been produced or is being distributed to retailers). I think more time is needed to observe trends and see if the data is coherent or not by cross referencing the peaks of stock availability with seal codes.

 

I have already seen some very surprising data so I am not sure if I trust it much,

[Sprocket77]

They're single digits, either that or they have about 4m Exo Suits left.

 

If the numbers are accurate then I'm not so sure about some of the retirement speculation. Take the TOO, the graph shows it's moved 400 units in the last three weeks, even accounting for double VIP, they're pretty good sales in just two markets for such an expensive set, would annualise out to approx.

[Sprocket77]

The graphs show stock levels, not sales. If a set sells 100 units per day but they restock 99 units per day most people will infer only 1 is selling per day according to the graphs. I imagine it will be just another tool for TLG to manipulate sales.

 

I think you can pretty much identify the restock points with the more expensive, low volume sets. Look at the R5, it's pretty safe to say they were restocked on the 20th March with about 160 units.

[Yinchuan]

Who needs actual data? I subscribe to unfounded, crackpot theries instead!

[Sprocket77]

Who needs actual data? I subscribe to unfounded, crackpot theries instead!

 

Lot to be said for a good crackpot theory.

[Ed Mack]

Huw did a nice job with this data, but with any sort of information like this, it has some use, but it is not a game changer.  If you piece all of it together you can estimate  what is a good seller or not, but in no way does that tell you if more production runs are planned, which is the most important information one can obtain in the reselling world.  

[10230]

It will be interesting to see these graphs over the course of a year. If they last for that long.

[lazuli16]

you guys can keep your graphs...i'll stick to divination through chicken bones.  

[Sprocket77]

The info is only really going to have any significance on the LEGO Shop at Home exclusives too. Something that's freely available and possibly discounted in regular toy stores is less likely to be bought direct from Lego, so their sales will appear slower.

[exciter1]

I see this getting shutdown.

[fossilrock]

I wouldn't be shocked if that's the end of the Tower of Orthanc.  We'll see... but, my guess is it's gone.

[Ed Mack]

I see this getting shutdown.

Probably at some point.  LEGO likes to keep its information to itself.  This was probably a slip up by those affiliates.  

[inversion]

Tracking all of this stuff into a database would be good for retrospect analysis to determine some policies. Restock frequency, at which stock levels do they restock, behaviour before retirement etc. Lots of possible information here for the good statistician. I say almost too much if we can build a database at least for a year. This type of data is really good.

 

Ed is right. LEGO is giving away too much info if they allow us to do this.

Edited April 2, 2015 by inversion

[Yinchuan]

I see this getting shutdown.

Did the chicken bones tell you that?

[exciter1]

Did the chicken bones tell you that?

It was the clucker.

[lazuli16]

It was the clucker.

The turkey from last night?

[mudcatsfan]

Classic intentional misinformation campaign.

 

Allow the enemy to THINK they've broken your code.

 

ramp the TOO levels down to zero, show no no reorders, then.........UNLEASH THE HOUNDS.

 

Crank production and have anyone that ordered more than one TOO in those months dragged from their mother's house and beaten with a bag of duplo.

 

-taken from lego insider anti-reseller memo further detail [REDACTED]

[fossilrock]

I do think the LOTR ToO is done though.  With Jurassic World coming in May/June, and Scooby Doo later on in the year... LOTR/Hobbit has to be on the way out..  I bet if there is a production run on ToO, it's a small one.  Just from what i've seen online at the various retail outlets, the theme seems to be on life support at this point, and I expect it to be gone by summer, even if that graph showed a steady decrease in inventory with steady sales.