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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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I'd rather buy it from Lego!  But the Flying Dutchman myth is very, very old (dating back to the 18th century according to Wikipedia).  As long as it didn't include a Jack Sparrow character, I think anyone could legally make the set (or something like it; Lego probably owns all Ideas submissions).  It is easily the coolest Ideas submission I've seen on the site.  I hate to see dedicated AFOL's put in months on a project like that, come up with something truly awesome, and then see their creation die of neglect.

 

There was a website that had the actual sets (of submitted ideas) available for sale - Does anyone recall the site? Did they get shut down?

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I know for the UCS AT-AT, another crazy cool Ideas submission that was rejected in the review stage, there are folks selling the instructions.  I think you'd have to bricklink it, though, so it would be time-consuming.  It's just possible that Lego rejected that one because they intend to release their own UCS AT-AT.  Helicarrier offers a precedent for that situation.

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There was a website that had the actual sets (of submitted ideas) available for sale - Does anyone recall the site? Did they get shut down?

I know the one you're talking about yet cannot remember the actual site name. It was like LEGO Ideas adjacent and it doesn't help when there isn't a link to it on LEGO's main site or the Ideas one or at least one I can find.
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I'm noticing that the Ghostbusters Ecto-1 (21108) going up in price online (Ebay, Amazon), showing "Rare" in some online stores, and sold out in others.

 

Is this a set that is on the "Retiring Soon" radar?

 

Even if it isn't, IMO, it's a pretty cool set everyone should have anyway!  LOL

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I'm noticing that the Ghostbusters Ecto-1 (21108) going up in price online (Ebay, Amazon), showing "Rare" in some online stores, and sold out in others.

 

Is this a set that is on the "Retiring Soon" radar?

 

Even if it isn't, IMO, it's a pretty cool set everyone should have anyway!  LOL

 

Chapters/Indigo still have these in the brick & mortar stores around me .. by the dozens. People like to make up stories to help bring attention to their listings with "RARE" being one of the words eBay ought to outright ban in the listing titles.

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I know there has been a lot of discussion recently about PC possibly passing up PS into retirement first.

When I look for trend of sets that continue to hang around past the generic two-year run you find sets like T1, DS, PS, TB...all are considered pretty exceptional sets that are well-received and continue to produce well past speculated retirement projections. My obvious conclusion on this is that popularity=sales=extended set production life.

SO, for those who predict PC will be done this year, my question is why? I have built neither of these sets but if PC goes first then you would think that it does not sell as well as PS, but why not? Is it the stickers? Less detail? Less build entertainment? Nobody wants a corner? Not attractive?

Personally when it came to me not buying the TH it came down to price as well as aesthetics. I simply did not like the looks of it so I passed.

If sales plays a role in life extension, why would PC be suffering compared to PS, in your opinion?

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I know there has been a lot of discussion recently about PC possibly passing up PS into retirement first.

When I look for trend of sets that continue to hang around past the generic two-year run you find sets like T1, DS, PS, TB...all are considered pretty exceptional sets that are well-received and continue to produce well past speculated retirement projections. My obvious conclusion on this is that popularity=sales=extended set production life.

SO, for those who predict PC will be done this year, my question is why? I have built neither of these sets but if PC goes first then you would think that it does not sell as well as PS, but why not? Is it the stickers? Less detail? Less build entertainment? Nobody wants a corner? Not attractive?

Personally when it came to me not buying the TH it came down to price as well as aesthetics. I simply did not like the looks of it so I passed.

If sales plays a role in life extension, why would PC be suffering compared to PS, in your opinion?

 

Exactly this... Pet Shop is a better seller at the moment cause people expect it to be next to be chopped. So if your theory is right about PC being not such a good seller, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

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Exactly this... Pet Shop is a better seller at the moment cause people expect it to be next to be chopped. So if your theory is right about PC being not such a good seller, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

But on this assumption isn't every exclusive that's 'up next for the chop' a good seller?

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Production schedules are quite predictable if you look at the historical data. It has been a long time since I have seen the chart, but I believe Biniou has a nice graphic pasted in one of the threads of Modular time lines and retirement dates.

 

Nothing is concrete but the story makes sense... the Town Hall's price point placed it above the target audience's strike-price... thus, it sold slowly, thus it is the one modular to be slated for retirement out of turn. I would be very surprised if TLG ever produced another mod at this retail price again.

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But on this assumption isn't every exclusive that's 'up next for the chop' a good seller?

This is why I am curious about the quality of the PC. What would drive people from it, if anything? I likeled the arctic lemon Pet Shop and its many figurations. Maybe helps explain why they keep pumping those out.

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I think in about ten years, all the modulars will be MSRP $200.  Heck, if Lego follows the CMF pricing trend, the modulars could all be $300 in the next five years.  Lego's been reaching on price more and more.  Inflation is just about zero in their major markets (EU and US), but Lego set prices are heading up fast while price per piece falls.

 

Anyway, I don't think we'll ever know why TH got chopped.  Lego went right on producing the $200 ToO, $200 Simpsons House, $200 Red 5, the (ahem) $400 Death Star, and since TH left we've gotten the $200 Tumbler, $200 Slave 1, and $200 UCS Tie Fighter.  Are modular buyers especially stingy and unwilling to pay $200?  I somehow doubt it.  After all, they're now happy to pay $550 for TH on eBay.

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Anyway, I don't think we'll ever know why TH got chopped.  Lego went right on producing the $200 ToO, $200 Simpsons House, $200 Red 5, the (ahem) $400 Death Star, and since TH left we've gotten the $200 Tumbler, $200 Slave 1, and $200 UCS Tie Fighter.  Are modular buyers especially stingy and unwilling to pay $200?  I somehow doubt it.  After all, they're now happy to pay $550 for TH on eBay.

 

Everything you listed is licensed except the TH. I am not sure that's the answer, but I am reaching into my childhood experience of "one of these things does not belong here".

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