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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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 it doesn't mean that this thread is about "open fabrication". :)

 

 

"Fabrication" is a bit harsh.  There's been solid data and info this last week that point to a *possible* retirement of 60052 (and maybe 60051).

 

- 60052 (and 60051) are listed as "Sold Out" on SAH on every site except US/Canada.  

- Pictures and discussion of a new cargo train, 60098 have been published the last 2 days, including on respected blogs.  

- 60098 duplicates much of 60052, including similar rolling stock and inclusion of power functions, track, a cargo terminal, and accessories.  

- 60098 is clearly NOT an HE replacement, it's numbered in the City series.

- 60052 has been discounted world-wide the last 10 days

- at least one stock manager told a BP member that the discounts "were at the direction of the supplier"

- other BP members have talked with B&M managers, who've said 65002 "isn't coming back into stock if another train is released"

 

The above isn't "fabrication".  In fact, its an intriguing set of clues.  Which is why the retirement discussion has heated up.  Even our own Ed has chimed in saying this wouldn't be unprecedented.  Take all this for what its worth.  Personally, such discussion and facts are a reason this site is so awesome.  I've made some decisions on this whole matter and spent a bit of money to back it up; like all things here, it may or may not be correct and result in a payoff.

Edited by diablo2112
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I think you could broaden the definition to any train released so far (ignoring things like special or limited editions). They are kinda like City flagship models. Have always been much more persistent than regular City sets. I don't think that's precedented. But of course unprecedented things can happen.

 

 

I watched a show on History or Discovery or something to that effect a year or two ago on factories, they showed the process of designing and manufacturing a lego set.  The set they featured was a City Police Station and the Lego guy actually said it was the flagship set, they will always have a police station, and it gets an update every few years etc.  It was a very interesting show.  

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First of all:

WOW I'm sorry I completely missed the picture with the 60098 train. My bad. I only saw the "it's sold out on SaH ! it may be retiring !" posts.

For guys like me who have missed the picture: http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/4008-retiring-soon-open-speculation/page-243#entry420494

 

valenciaeric, on 14 Feb 2015 - 12:31 AM, said:

 

    Look at previous page of thread for details. I had my doubts too but I am open to all eventualities now.

 

Thanks I completely missed this picture.

 

Second:

 

I would be very very surprised if there were other $200 trains retired after 6 months.

http://brickset.com/sets/3677-1/Red-Cargo-Train

 

This #3677 red cargo train was a "special edition" train, lifespan about 6 months, and its number didn't fit with the other city sets from 2011 (#3676 is a 1989 set and #3678 is a 1982 set).

 

The #60051 and #60052 are listed with the other city sets (#60050 and #60053 are also 2014 sets) and that's why I couldn't imagine they would retire so soon, considering the 7938 and 7939 lifespan.

 

The #60098 also fits with the 2015 sets (#60057 and #60059).

 

Could the 60098 be the "real" replacement set for the 7939 ? And the 60052 set a "spin off" like the red cargo has been ?

 

I'm completly clueless... sorry again for my previous post.

 

The 60098 deserve its own topic: I can't be the only guy on this forum who missed this information ?

Edited by biniou
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Back to the new train once again: How about Lego is just introducing a third one to keep it alongside the two existing ones - and nothing will retire? I mean before the Mini Cooper came out many people thought they would NEVER EVER keep the VW and the Mini on the shelves at the same time. But they eventually did. So why sould there not be 3 trains at the same time? Maybe Lego have done customer research and found that buyers would be willing to buy more trains once they have started collecting, but since there are only 2 sets that's all LEGO can sell them. Maybe Horizon Express already was a step in that direction - testing how a third train would sell, while this one might have been a bit too specific (meaning expensive). So, my guess would be: the new train will be introduced and the two existing ones will be kept, too. Continuing with 3 train sets available from now on. Nothing retires. Occam's razor.

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I'd say there are some other sets that would cause even more chaos if retired now. Or do you have any specific evidence on the PR?

 

Nope, no evidence.. it's my favorite modular because I think it is the prettiest building TLG has ever produced. I think it will skyrocket after EOL, especially when it will be retired sooner than expected. Let's say.. sooner than PS or PC. I know it sounds not plausible, but we'll don't know how crazy things can get.

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Back to the new train once again: How about Lego is just introducing a third one to keep it alongside the two existing ones - and nothing will retire? I mean before the Mini Cooper came out many people thought they would NEVER EVER keep the VW and the Mini on the shelves at the same time. But they eventually did. So why sould there not be 3 trains at the same time? Maybe Lego have done customer research and found that buyers would be willing to buy more trains once they have started collecting, but since there are only 2 sets that's all LEGO can sell them. Maybe Horizon Express already was a step in that direction - testing how a third train would sell, while this one might have been a bit too specific (meaning expensive). So, my guess would be: the new train will be introduced and the two existing ones will be kept, too. Continuing with 3 train sets available from now on. Nothing retires. Occam's razor.

 

 

Many things can happen...

I could very well imagine 3 trains at the same time, not exactly unprecedented either. If trains are selling well (I'm under the impression that they are, but who knows), anything but more train sets would be unexpected. And why not release trains more in tune with contemporary City themes.

That "sold out" tag at EU LEGO Shop at Home really doesn't mean that much, happens all the time.

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This was posted in the Simpsons conversation earlier this morning and noted by jerryherb, but the limit for the Simpsons house at Lego shop at home has been reduced to 1:

I believe it was limit 5 the last time I checked a couple of weeks ago.

 

I thought the set came out last May, but it actually was released February 2014 in the US according to brickset so it has been out a year.  Anyone think this set will be gone, or no longer being produced, once the new Simpsons Kwik-E-Mart set is released?

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This was posted in the Simpsons conversation earlier this morning and noted by jerryherb, but the limit for the Simpsons house at Lego shop at home has been reduced to 1:

I believe it was limit 5 the last time I checked a couple of weeks ago.

I thought the set came out last May, but it actually was released February 2014 in the US according to brickset so it has been out a year. Anyone think this set will be gone, or no longer being produced, once the new Simpsons Kwik-E-Mart set is released?

Can someone confirm the limit change? Calling NMM...

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This was posted in the Simpsons conversation earlier this morning and noted by jerryherb, but the limit for the Simpsons house at Lego shop at home has been reduced to 1:

I believe it was limit 5 the last time I checked a couple of weeks ago.

 

I thought the set came out last May, but it actually was released February 2014 in the US according to brickset so it has been out a year.  Anyone think this set will be gone, or no longer being produced, once the new Simpsons Kwik-E-Mart set is released?

 

Europe still limit 5.

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