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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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SOH has to be the toughest decision for me.

  

I mean for $80 more, I can get a DS or 2 Tumbler, or 2 Slave, or 2 Simpsons.

The gamble here is that it goes early.  

or 2 PS, 2 PC and save $20

or 2 PR, 2 DO...

only up side is, probably because of the same reasons not as many people stocking up SOH

volume-wise, 2 older modulars take up similar space, 2 newer ones take up less than SOH

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I think SOH is retiring sooner no more production.

I think you will be able to get one for a long time as I think what is in the channel will last a long time,.

I do not have data just a belief.

If Lego stopped production today could you still get one for another year? Maybe that is the timing dilemma for me.

I'd rather have more of others flip some and buy some next year of this one but not sure how long it will last.

On the EEE I think I better have what I want within 30 days or less... All speculation on my part.

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I think SOH is retiring sooner no more production.

I think you will be able to get one for a long time as I think what is in the channel will last a long time,.

I do not have data just a belief.

If Lego stopped production today could you still get one for another year? Maybe that is the timing dilemma for me.

I'd rather have more of others flip some and buy some next year of this one but not sure how long it will last.

On the EEE I think I better have what I want within 30 days or less... All speculation on my part.

depends on the en masse horde. and the big $$$...

 

if they go after a set even with constant supply they will "poof" them within a week from all retailers including LEGO Shop at Home

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I think SOH is retiring sooner no more production.

I think you will be able to get one for a long time as I think what is in the channel will last a long time,.

I do not have data just a belief.

If Lego stopped production today could you still get one for another year? Maybe that is the timing dilemma for me.

I'd rather have more of others flip some and buy some next year of this one but not sure how long it will last.

On the EEE I think I better have what I want within 30 days or less... All speculation on my part.

 

What happened to the Red 5 panic bus you were driving?

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Just seems to me that hoarder or not, the SOH is a tough sell to me for investing purposes.  

 

Let's just say if you got it at retail of $320, plus tax...that's around $340 investment now.   

 

Then it goes EOL and jumps to $500 quickly.  After all fees you could be left with $420.  So after a year of holding, you could have made a whopping $80 per and taken up a lot of space if you have multiple of them. 

 

If you got 2 PS or 2 PC's let's say at $160 (taxes), then they EOL.  The modulars always seem to jump a lot more quicker.  So after a year if they jumped to $300-350 like the fire brigade has, after fees you are profiting $80 per x 2.  So for the same price you can make $160 profit to the SOH $80.  

 

If you keep multiplying that because you buy many of them, it increases.  Maybe in 4 years the SOH becomes a $1,000 set, but if they modulars do as well, it's a no brainer to me. 

Am I right on this logic, it sounds right in my head.  haha.   

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Just seems to me that hoarder or not, the SOH is a tough sell to me for investing purposes.  

 

Let's just say if you got it at retail of $320, plus tax...that's around $340 investment now.   

 

Then it goes EOL and jumps to $500 quickly.  After all fees you could be left with $420.  So after a year of holding, you could have made a whopping $80 per and taken up a lot of space if you have multiple of them. 

 

If you got 2 PS or 2 PC's let's say at $160 (taxes), then they EOL.  The modulars always seem to jump a lot more quicker.  So after a year if they jumped to $300-350 like the fire brigade has, after fees you are profiting $80 per x 2.  So for the same price you can make $160 profit to the SOH $80.  

 

If you keep multiplying that because you buy many of them, it increases.  Maybe in 4 years the SOH becomes a $1,000 set, but if they modulars do as well, it's a no brainer to me. 

Am I right on this logic, it sounds right in my head.  haha.   

 

 

Or, for the same price, you could have bought 7 sets of Series 1 Mixels, and sold them at $120 per, leaving you with about about $280 profit, and only needing about the space of one SOH.

 

Just sayin'....

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^ Even better!! LOL.  I just missed out on the S1 though but have lots of S2 stacked up.   But yup, lots of options to make for better investments than huge expensive sets.  Seems like an awful lot of space and work and time to get the return on a large set than 2 smaller ones, or 63 mixels. haha

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Just seems to me that hoarder or not, the SOH is a tough sell to me for investing purposes.  

 

Let's just say if you got it at retail of $320, plus tax...that's around $340 investment now.   

 

Then it goes EOL and jumps to $500 quickly.  After all fees you could be left with $420.  So after a year of holding, you could have made a whopping $80 per and taken up a lot of space if you have multiple of them. 

 

If you got 2 PS or 2 PC's let's say at $160 (taxes), then they EOL.  The modulars always seem to jump a lot more quicker.  So after a year if they jumped to $300-350 like the fire brigade has, after fees you are profiting $80 per x 2.  So for the same price you can make $160 profit to the SOH $80.  

 

If you keep multiplying that because you buy many of them, it increases.  Maybe in 4 years the SOH becomes a $1,000 set, but if they modulars do as well, it's a no brainer to me. 

Am I right on this logic, it sounds right in my head.  haha.   

 

Sounds logic what you are saying. But if many think alike it may rise even further above $1000. Who knows. For diversification it is not bad to have this one. Also modulars are hoarded more and more. Will the growth on these sets remain as they always did?

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Just seems to me that hoarder or not, the SOH is a tough sell to me for investing purposes.  

 

Let's just say if you got it at retail of $320, plus tax...that's around $340 investment now.   

 

Then it goes EOL and jumps to $500 quickly.  After all fees you could be left with $420.  So after a year of holding, you could have made a whopping $80 per and taken up a lot of space if you have multiple of them. 

 

If you got 2 PS or 2 PC's let's say at $160 (taxes), then they EOL.  The modulars always seem to jump a lot more quicker.  So after a year if they jumped to $300-350 like the fire brigade has, after fees you are profiting $80 per x 2.  So for the same price you can make $160 profit to the SOH $80.  

 

If you keep multiplying that because you buy many of them, it increases.  Maybe in 4 years the SOH becomes a $1,000 set, but if they modulars do as well, it's a no brainer to me. 

Am I right on this logic, it sounds right in my head.  haha.   

From my sales history your logic is sound.

 

$150-200 sets sell very well even after retirement or even while doing the dance.  Even with a modest bump of 75-100 a collector can still buy the set for $225-300.

 

$300+  sets are a big chunk of change and even if it sees a good bump of $125-150 and goes to $450ish  you don't always have the volume of buyers at that level.

 

To put it in perspective as a whole, R2, ToO, AA, HH, TH  (all 160-200 range) have sold faster and in way higher quantity than a $400 SSD does for $700.  

 

You just loose a big amount of customer base with that much cash to spend once you hit $500+ aftermarket sets.  

 

They can still be good sets but you do have to figure your investing budget out a little more on these larger sets and plan longer hold times and larger chunks of real estate in storage.  

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Sounds logic what you are saying. But if many think alike it may rise even further above $1000. Who knows. For diversification it is not bad to have this one. Also modulars are hoarded more and more. Will the growth on these sets remain as they always did?

Oh I agree, it could rise above $1,000.  May take 4 years but I def see that.  And since the first 3 modulars are all at or above $1,000 after 4 years of EOL and climbing, even if they newer modulars hovered at $800 after 4 years, I'd rather that x8 than 4 Opera Houses.  

Plus I'm taking into account that Modulars will be easier to get return sooner than later, which will then allow for more reinvesting.  

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EEE has only been out a year.  Is there something that is making you think that?  I don't have any and I was trying to aquire some others first before this one since I thought I had time.

 

You do not have time anymore these days. Lately it is more about choices. Which sets do I see as good investments and buy my quantities. I have given up on trying to buy them all. Almost impossible for me.

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You do not have time anymore these days. Lately it is more about choices. Which sets do I see as good investments and buy my quantities. I have given up on trying to buy them all. Almost impossible for me.

Very true, kind of have to go with your instincts and attack which sets you think are best for you.

 

Sets do not last long when the questions about EOL start popping up.  You have to be ahead of that point in what numbers you want or you will come up short.

 

Red 5 is a very good example.  Its been on my list for awhile and usually have time to build them up and that set is gone locally.  So for the most part obtaining the numbers I like to attain to spread the sales out over the years is gone for me on that product.

 

 Sure it could come back, but if it does now that its on everyone's radar,  limits will be more in place then if the set was not hot.

 

Before ToO was hot I could pretty much buy at will locally.  Then it goes out for awhile and when it comes back its a 1 per usually.  Another reason to get some stock early.  

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You do not have time anymore these days. Lately it is more about choices. Which sets do I see as good investments and buy my quantities. I have given up on trying to buy them all. Almost impossible for me.

You are right.  I can't buy them all either.  I still wish I would have bought at least one HH but I didn't have the funds at the time.  I am still slowly making my choices right now.  I had $1200 to spend and so far I have bought a WMV, T1, and a ToO.  I am getting two Pet Shop's next and I wanted to get some EEE's but I'll have to see.  I was going to buy a Red Five along with my ToO purchase this past weekend but all the boxes they had were creased and did not look mint.

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IMHO, SOH is done in terms of production (B.F. sale) and all that is left is surplus stock. I totally agree that when sets get to 500 the number of people that are willing to buy one diminishes exponentially - also it is not a modular so the "completist" element are also not interested.

 

On the other hand, these same reasons make it a low hoard set so there will be opportunities to make money on it. I

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