Val-E Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Anyway I am not going to get into an argument about what is or was the norm. Company policies change all the time and the people that don 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diablo2112 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 (edited) I would like to add what I consider this very important piece of data: # of unique Lego sets introduced by year 2015: 381(announced to date) 2014: 719 2013: 675 2012: 689 2011: 593 2010: 514 2009: 472 2008: 429 To a discerning investor, this is pretty important info. Lego has some flexibility in infrastructure, and automation has made it easier to produce a larger variety of sets, but there's a limit to this efficiency without large, additional capital investment. Prior precedent for EOL may or may not be followed in the future. To me, its clear that increasing set numbers from TLG mean that we may see shorter product lifespans for some of their introductions from the last few years. I think a careful study of sets from 2012-2014 which have a large number of unique parts, large boxes (note: last 2 modulars are in smaller box sizes), and relatively slow sales may reveal candidates for EOL that aren't necessarily on the radar at the moment. As always, YMMV. Edited February 2, 2015 by diablo2112 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redcell Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 When did two years become the standard eol date? Try to answer that without using Town Hall as an example. Historically, two years has been the typical timeframe for the length of time that sets have been on the market. Now, is this true for every set? No. Is this lifespan exactly 2 years such that sets are only available for a 24-month period? No. Are there sets that were available for a much shorter period of time? Yes (e.***., 3222 and Mace Windu's Jedi Starfighter). Are there sets that were available for a much longer period of time? Yes (e.***., DS and FB). However, if you look back over time, you will find that most sets are on sale for around 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 When did two years become the standard eol date? Try to answer that without using Town Hall as an example. Not sure if you're serious or just making a fool of us but take a look at http://brickset.com/ and then type a theme (city, technic, friends, star wars...), then choose a year (2011, 2012...) and look at the availibility of sets listed. Some retire after some few months, some after 5 years. But most of the sets retire after 2 years / 2 years and a half. I hope you'll understand that I'll no bother to list 90% of the sets listed as a proof. There is nothing new under the sun. Do not try to prove that I'm wrong by using the death star as an example. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlek9b Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Newbie question...does a set go eol in all countries around same time? Does lego ever retire to Europe and manufacture new line to US or opposite? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hxckid88 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Newbie question...does a set go eol in all countries around same time? Does lego ever retire to Europe and manufacture new line to US or opposite? No. Not even close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 (edited) Newbie question...does a set go eol in all countries around same time? Does lego ever retire to Europe and manufacture new line to US or opposite? No. Note that I'm talking about the availability on LEGO Shop at Home, not the official "retired" tag (which seems to no more exist in some countries, here we just have a "this item is unknown" now...). It's quite rare that there are more than a year difference (but it can happen, see the 9450: http://brickset.com/sets/9450-1/Epic-Dragon-Battle ). Also note that not available on LEGO Shop at Home do not mean it will not be available for one more year (or more) on retailers shop... Most of the time, when a set is sold out in EU or in USA, it's going to retire very soon across the pond (sometimes the same month, or 2 months later). But there are exceptions (see above the 9450 set). Note: I see that you're in the USA, so if you want to invest in a set which is no more available on the european LEGO Shop at Home and still is in the USA, do not wait. Edited February 2, 2015 by biniou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinP Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Pretty typical for most common retail sets, I think. Being a bit of a statistics geek, I would like to see some measures of central tendency for EOL based on theme, size, and availability. Maybe that's a good snow day project. Dang it. I have a snow day today... From my understanding, most sets less than $100 retire in two years, but larger sets like exclusives retire after three or more years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 10233, 10225, 10228 2 to 2.5 years seems to be pretty standard. If it sells well it gets another run, if not it goes. This is correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vexxet Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 AA and EEE ??? I believe Lego let the standards go. No more logic in them. Haunted house as well? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tballw32 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 What about something like the Pet Shop That has been around since 2011? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 AA and EEE ??? I believe Lego let the standards go. No more logic in them. Logic is that sets the sell stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quacs Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Logic is that sets the sell stay. On the flip side, assuming TLG maintains a large line-up of exclusive we should always see a few great sets that don't sell to TLG's expectation (AA, TH), and vanish quickly. If they start to reduce the number of Exclusives/Hard to Find sets, you could see those few "under the radar" Exclusives vanish too. Not saying they will, but it's interesting food for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Logic is that sets the sell stay. Bye bye Red 5! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miami Bomb Squad Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 (edited) Ok, Lets speculate. Based on all the speculation logic & non-logic, the SOH should be gone by Oct. Can you image if this goes before the TB? 2 years anniversary in Sept Space hogger $320,.... thats a lot of coins. Poor seller....please don't ask for proof, steve. Edited February 2, 2015 by Miami Bomb Squad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quacs Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ok, Lets speculate. Based on all the speculation logic & non-logic, the SOH should be gone by Oct. Can you image if this goes before the TB? 2 years anniversary in Sept Space hogger $320,.... thats a lot of coins. Poor seller....please don't ask for proof, steve. IMO, if this goes before TB, it will be another TH - immediate rapid growth to 1.5x-2x MSRP within a few months. That said, it could still be around for another year or two. Who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grynn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ok, Lets speculate. Based on all the speculation logic & non-logic, the SOH should be gone by Oct. Can you image if this goes before the TB? 2 years anniversary in Sept Space hogger $320,.... thats a lot of coins. Poor seller....please don't ask for proof, steve. Or a lot sooner as people figure this out and deplete current low stock levels, triggering early EOL signs, triggering horde focus, etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 (edited) Can you image if this goes before the TB? No... just because they are in the same category (huge advanced models for AFOLs) and it's 2010 vs 2013... If I'm wrong, so it'll be another Town Hall. edit: I've checked my pockets and do not see any delorean... '> Edited February 2, 2015 by biniou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Just for the fun of it.... Can we collect the seal codes of the SOH? I am suspicious they are early 2014. Pure speculation for now from my side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think SOH goes first and while I like it better than TB I think it is a very slow seller in the US Just personal opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legodelorean Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think SOH goes first and while I like it better than TB I think it is a very slow seller in the US Just personal opinion. It's that $300+ price tag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cissi Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think SOH goes first and while I like it better than TB I think it is a very slow seller in the US Just personal opinion. It's such a big set to stock up... (sigh) But it's a beautiful/elegant display when finished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Just for the fun of it.... Can we collect the seal codes of the SOH? I am suspicious they are early 2014. Pure speculation for now from my side. Wish you would have asked this question yesterday. There were about 8 of these sets on the floor at Legoland California yesterday. I could have checked them quickly. As soon as I get back there, I'll check. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grynn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Just for the fun of it.... Can we collect the seal codes of the SOH? I am suspicious they are early 2014. Pure speculation for now from my side. 99% sure I saw 3XR4 a month or two ago.... but not many of them. I may have an update later tonight if no one beats me to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miami Bomb Squad Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 SOH has to be the toughest decision for me. I mean for $80 more, I can get a DS or 2 Tumbler, or 2 Slave, or 2 Simpsons. The gamble here is that it goes early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.