Veegs Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think for several sets you are right. But the question is are you telling me to not order the stack of Red Five's I am getting ready to order? Define stack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Define stack. It is not like the emazers stack of things but it is a lot of $ for me. I am thinking of ordering 10 to go with the 2 I have. If I then see it start to do the bounce I may get a a few more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inversion Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It is not like the emazers stack of things but it is a lot of $ for me. I am thinking of ordering 10 to go with the 2 I have. If I then see it start to do the bounce I may get a a few more. If you want to think a little professionally consider the other type of sets you already have and think about your investments as a portfolio. How much share in monetary value do you want to allocate in it for X-Wings? How much do you want to spread the risk (job of a varied portfolio)? It's no use to think about investments in isolation. The number of R5s you want to purchase should be related to the quantity you own from other sets. You don't want a skewed portfolio optimally. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If you want to think a little professionally consider the other type of sets you already have and think about your investments as a portfolio. How much share in monetary value do you want to allocate in it for X-Wings? How much do you want to spread the risk (job of a varied portfolio)? It's no use to think about investments in isolation. The number of R5s you want to purchase should be related to the quantity you own from other sets. You don't want a skewed portfolio optimally. Thanks inversion great advice. As Spock said in mirror mirror I shall consider it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redghostx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Thanks inversion great advice. As Spock said in mirror mirror I shall consider it.,Offer Inversion A piece of the action instead. Ex Astris, Scientia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
makr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If you want to think a little professionally consider the other type of sets you already have and think about your investments as a portfolio. How much share in monetary value do you want to allocate in it for X-Wings? How much do you want to spread the risk (job of a varied portfolio)? It's no use to think about investments in isolation. The number of R5s you want to purchase should be related to the quantity you own from other sets. You don't want a skewed portfolio optimally. I don't think having a broad portfolio should be seen as general advice but rather as something for a specific purpose. Having a broader portfolio reduces risk, but at the cost of reducing maximal gains. Personally, since I don't depend on my LEGO money, I rather focus on those things I got a good feeling about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't think having a broad portfolio should be seen as general advice but rather as something for a specific purpose. Having a broader portfolio reduces risk, but at the cost of reducing maximal gains. Personally, since I don't depend on my LEGO money, I rather focus on those things I got a good feeling about. ...or avoiding maximal loss. It goes both ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
makr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 ...or avoiding maximal loss. It goes both ways. Sure, that's what risk means. When playing roulette, you can put all your money on one number, or spread it all over the table. While that's pure luck, it's different if you can make some educated guesses about the performance of these numbers, as in LEGO investing. The objective shouldn't just be how to avoid risk, but rather if it's worth the risk. Depending on one's goals of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sure, that's what risk means. When playing roulette, you can put all your money on one number, or spread it all over the table. While that's pure luck, it's different if you can make some educated guesses about the performance of these numbers, as in LEGO investing. The objective shouldn't just be how to avoid risk, but rather if it's worth the risk. Depending on one's goals of course. You'll have no argument from me--that wasn't my point, and I'm sorry if I came across as argumentative. It's that there are some here who suggest "If I would have just gone all in on X set, I would have beaten the average." How did you know X set would be the one until it became the one? Rear view mirror economics means nothing. There are some general guidelines to any set's EOL performance, but some surprise for the good or ill of the investment. When supply and demand meet the perfect set... nirvana. A diversified portfolio doesn't necessarily mean a broad portfolio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inversion Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't think having a broad portfolio should be seen as general advice but rather as something for a specific purpose. Having a broader portfolio reduces risk, but at the cost of reducing maximal gains. Personally, since I don't depend on my LEGO money, I rather focus on those things I got a good feeling about. You got this totally wrong. Investors care about expected returns, not maximal gains. On the contrary, they prefer smaller variance with the same expected returns if possible. What an efficient portfolio roughly does is eliminating a part of the variance while retaining the same expected returns. So it avoids unnecessary risk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Inversion, you make my brain happy. Thanks for sharing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You got this totally wrong. Investors care about expected returns, not maximal gains. On the contrary, they prefer smaller variance with the same expected returns if possible. What an efficient portfolio roughly does is eliminating a part of the variance while retaining the same expected returns. So it avoids unnecessary risk. Makromizer is an investor, yes? And he is telling you what he cares about. So it is impossible for him to be "totally wrong." And whether he uses the terms "maximal gains" or "expected returns," you can see what he's getting at, yes? So, how about trying to be pleasant once in a while, Inversion? I know lately this forum serves as a chance for a few individuals to give themselves, "I am right. You are wrong," and "I have a lot of money" ego boosts. lately, but, boy it is tiring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hxckid88 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I put all my faith in mark Cuban and the fantasy lego investing game. Invest in one thing. Don't diversify. Wanna trade ur whole lego collection for nothing but town halls...... I do. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mscheaf Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I put all my faith in mark Cuban and the fantasy lego investing game. Invest in one thing. Don't diversify. Wanna trade ur whole lego collection for nothing but town halls...... I do. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app Yes. Hindsight. Did you want to trade your entire collection for Town Halls in August? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hxckid88 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yes. Hindsight. Did you want to trade your entire collection for Town Halls in August? nope. Hindsight is 20/20. But I have adjusted how I invest and always will since I've started. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mscheaf Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 nope. Hindsight is 20/20. But I have adjusted how I invest and always will since I've started. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app True that. Adapt or die. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 (edited) For every one Mark Cuban, there's plenty of bankrupt would-bes. I'm not criticizing your religion (you did say "put your faith" in him), but LEGO isn't like other investments. All TLG has to do to kill your "all in" is rehash the set you're "all in" about. Why are folks lukewarm about the Red Five? It's not the only X-wing UCS made. Maybe another is around the corner. What if they build a new TH, the 1892 version? Diversification is a way to adapt to a changing environment. It's worked for this planet for several billion years and through multiple mass extinctions. Edited January 23, 2015 by biking_tiger 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM123 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 FYI: Research Institute is back @ Lego LEGO Shop at Home Europe. Couldn't find the proper topic (CUUSOO, RI), so I will post it here. Buy some if you like. Still sold out in the US though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hxckid88 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 For every one Mark Cuban, there's plenty of bankrupt would-bes. I'm not criticizing your religion (you did say "put your faith" in him), but LEGO isn't like other investments. All TLG has to do to kill your "all in" is rehash the set you're "all in" about. Why are folks lukewarm about the Red Five? It's not the only X-wing UCS made. Maybe another is around the corner. What if they build a new TH, the 1892 version? Diversification is a way to adapt to a changing environment. It's worked for this planet for several billion years and through multiple mass extinctions. I agree. Nice religion comment. But that's why I have more tower bridges then every ucs star wars set combined. But I am practicing what I preach. I guarentee, yes guarendamntee that all my tower bridges will be a better pick in two years then any and all Chima and Ninjango that people are grabbing up at target for even 50% off. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I agree. Nice religion comment. But that's why I have more tower bridges then every ucs star wars set combined. But I am practicing what I preach. I guarentee, yes guarendamntee that all my tower bridges will be a better pick in two years then any and all Chima and Ninjango that people are grabbing up at target for even 50% off. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app I fully disagree with your Chima and Ninjago statement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hxckid88 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I fully disagree with your Chima and Ninjago statement. A 50% off mech dragon will never everrrrrr make you the money that a full retail tb will. Save this. We can revisit later. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mscheaf Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I agree. Nice religion comment. But that's why I have more tower bridges then every ucs star wars set combined. But I am practicing what I preach. I guarentee, yes guarendamntee that all my tower bridges will be a better pick in two years then any and all Chima and Ninjango that people are grabbing up at target for even 50% off. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app What a bold prediction lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inversion Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Makromizer is an investor, yes? And he is telling you what he cares about. So it is impossible for him to be "totally wrong." And whether he uses the terms "maximal gains" or "expected returns," you can see what he's getting at, yes? So, how about trying to be pleasant once in a while, Inversion? I know lately this forum serves as a chance for a few individuals to give themselves, "I am right. You are wrong," and "I have a lot of money" ego boosts. lately, but, boy it is tiring. I am posting here only to help people make more money and dissolve confusion about optimal investing strategies. And because I like LEGO. Also it is possible to be totally wrong, it's mathematics. Maximal gains has nothing to do with expected returns and I did not misunderstand anything. My style may be sometimes blunt which is a result of a mix involving exhaustion, personality and maybe a little intent. I don't like to be wishy-washy, but I also don't state things I am not sure of. I could spare my time writing these posts, the only reason I do this because I like to help. Lots of people here clearly don't think like investors while playing around with large amounts of money and it's best to eliminate harmful misconceptions as clearly as possible. Whether it's LEGO, houses, paintings, etc. investing is the same with its own mathematics. You do better if you are aware of it and can turn it to your advantage. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 (edited) A 50% off mech dragon will never everrrrrr make you the money that a full retail tb will. Save this. We can revisit later. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app First off, I am not going to buy Mech Dragons and I hate parting out, and were I picking between the two, I would rather go the TB route, but I just want to illustrate something in hopes that maybe we can start embracing the idea that different things can work for different people. Let's say that someone who does part out sets can make $5 on a 50% off Mech Dragon within 2 months. Mech Dragon Beginning value: 45 Ending value: 50 Number of periods: 2 months CAGR (%) = 88.17% per year Will you be able to get $850 after shipping and fees for Tower Bridge in two years? That's what you'd have to do to beat that rate of return. Again, I'd rather buy TB at retail myself, but it's not so crazy to think that an individual who was willing to do the work of parting out sets could actually do as well or better with their strategy. Edited January 23, 2015 by dmc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mos_Eisley Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 TB will not be anywhere near $850 in two years. You can save that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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