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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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Danish sense of humour; TH . HE and HH are now half price on EU shop! All still sold out of course.

European LEGO Shop at Home have the same stocks (a box shipped from germany can go in italy, france, etc.).

 

But discounts are not the same: sometimes a country gets a discount on a set whereas another country doesn't.

 

When a set, discounted in Germany (for example) is sold out and can't be ordered anymore by any other european country, all these countries has the "sold out" tag and also the discount which was applied in Germany (even if this set never got discounted in your country).

 

Recently I saw this on Santa's workshop:

- discount in some countries (in Germany for instance, but not in France)

- all sets are sold out (no stock anywhere)

- and then the discount is "virtually" applied in every european country, even in France (even if we never saw the discount)

 

Maybe it's an hint of an incoming retirement, who knows (do even LEGO knows ? not sure ^^ )

 

 

edit: but some sets are backordered and need another production run to fullfil orders. If there are 1,200 sets which are backordered and the minimum is 2,000 for a production run, I think that the 800 sets overproduced will be back on LEGO Shop at Home : that's maybe what happened to sets which made a reappearance for some weeks (yeah TMNT robot baxter, I'm looking at you).

Edited by biniou
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Guest TabbyBoy

Danish sense of humour; TH . HE and HH are now half price on EU shop! All still sold out of course.

 

I can't see this being legal (misleading) unless B&M shops have stock and will honour these deals.  If so, I expect stock to be gone instantly.  However, I'm keeping a close eye on the deals page in case stock suddenly appears.

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Yeah LEGO just went nuts to throw out the trash nobody wanted. Seeing a DUPLO set on the first exclusive page is depressive though. At least I know that awesome stuff is coming this year. 

What I like is that modulars seem to be constantly out of stock now. It signals a high demand for these sets. I don't think people are hoarding PR, it should be true demand. And this means our stashed retired stuff will rise nicely.

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Yeah LEGO just went nuts to throw out the trash nobody wanted. Seeing a DUPLO set on the first exclusive page is depressive though. At least I know that awesome stuff is coming this year. 

What I like is that modulars seem to be constantly out of stock now. It signals a high demand for these sets. I don't think people are hoarding PR, it should be true demand. And this means our stashed retired stuff will rise nicely.

 

This is an excellent point.  It all boils down to supply and demand.  As more and more people discover Lego (again, in the case of AFOL), I personally think the modulars will be the focal point of many collectors.  Even highly-hoarded sets like FB and PS will eventually see nice appreciation and low stocks.  Give each modular a few years from EOL, and I think many will follow the path of GC.

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A lot of debate on whether PS is going soon or not... IMO, you're playing with fire if you aren't acquiring now. If it doesn't go soon, get more: MODS = $$; if it DOES go sooner then expected than you'll see % returns like we have with the TH because so few hoarded it.

 

With modulars being so valuable an investment asset- I would argue the safest play in Lego investing- why bother risking it?

Edited by Cross
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A lot of debate on whether PS is going soon or not... IMO, you're playing with fire if you aren't acquiring now. If it doesn't go soon, get more: MODS = $$; if it DOES go sooner then expected than you'll see % returns like we have with the TH because so few hoarded it.

 

With modulars being so valuable an investment asset- I would argue the safest play in Lego investing- why bother risking it?

 

I agree.  No need to second guess this purchase.  Pull the trigger.

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A lot of debate on whether PS is going soon or not... IMO, you're playing with fire if you aren't acquiring now. If it doesn't go soon, get more: MODS = $$; if it DOES go sooner then expected than you'll see % returns like we have with the TH because so few hoarded it.

 

With modulars being so valuable an investment asset- I would argue the safest play in Lego investing- why bother risking it?

This is a sure thing. Lego is in a pickle.  They have to continue the modular theme to complete the block. The sets still have to be similar size and price.  The only thing they can do is keep them all going for a real long time which won't happen, or bring back the original 3, which also won't happen.  All of these sets have gone up without question. 

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Thank you for helping me make up my mind. I was debating on either getting this set or the red five X-Wing fighter set. I kind of wanted to wait until the double VIP points were available but I don't want to risk missing out.

 

Good call... and not directed specifically at you, but I'm seeing a lot of people saying they want to wait for double points, but are afraid set X or Y will retire. Just think of it this way, double VIP on a $159 set lands you an additional $7.95 to redeem. Sure, it adds up, but why risk it over 8 bucks? If you're waiting for double points to load up on a set that you don't feel is retiring soon... by all means, great call to be patient. But if you're worried, it's really not that much gained by waiting. Just the way I see it anyhow.

Edited by P_R_Rice
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Good call... and not directed specifically at you, but I'm seeing a lot of people saying they want to wait for double points, but are afraid set X or Y will retire. Just think of it this way, double VIP on a $159 set lands you an additional $7.95 to redeem. Sure, it adds up, but why risk it over 8 bucks? If you're waiting for double points to load up on a set that you don't feel is retiring soon... by all means, great call to be patient. But if you're worried, it's really not that much gained by waiting. Just the way I see it anyhow.

I think a lot of people are riding the edge of their ever expanding "budgets" and need things like double VIP to justify expanding it a little further.

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I'm about two seconds away from taking ten grand from stock/bond I have and use it for more lego.

Come on Nick 10 Grand,that chicken Feed $20 Grand and you can get Red 5, Sea Cows, Tower of Orthanic, Pet Shops, Cinema Palaces,Ewok Villages and a few others. I will be going to the Lego Store Friday to load up on most of these. Ed

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I'm about two seconds away from taking ten grand from stock/bond I have and use it for more lego.

Weren't you just saying how much you liked the post about no financial constraints and opportunity cost being bs? Why do you need to take the money from one investment to fund another? you just liked it because it was a nice fantasy?

Edited by dmc
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Open speculation is that you guys in the U.S have it so good at the moment to buy lego. With our Aussie dollar sinking to an all time low some are rethinking of the cost to buy online (postage is a killer here on top of our shitty dollar). If you have the opportunity grab it.  I certainly would have loaded upon the ToO, and to buy retail over a store counter some retailers are getting greedy as they know of our position. 

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Come on Nick 10 Grand,that chicken Feed $20 Grand and you can get Red 5, Sea Cows, Tower of Orthanic, Pet Shops, Cinema Palaces,Ewok Villages and a few others. I will be going to the Lego Store Friday to load up on most of these. Ed

call me if you wanna ride down together as I'm free Friday morning and afternoon.

And great now everyone knows my real name. :)...... Or do they?!?!

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When ordering these exclusives that were mentioned from LEGO Shop at Home or Amazon, is it better to order in single orders rather than multiples? I want the least amount of damage to the Lego boxes. I know when ordering single sets through LEGO Shop at Home you can take advantage of the promos. I'm thinking of ordering two Pet Shops from LEGO Shop at Home but don't know if I should order together or separate......thoughts?

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