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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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i'm not sure why the sudden change of heart of the tower bridge. in the other thread about what sets could reach 5x RRP, many were saying how the tower bridge could be one of the next $2,000 sets. including myself. i love the TB. it's plenty iconic. it looks amazing on display and it has tons of pieces for a great price. what's not to love. so what if it's been out a long time. some people on here are stocking up, others are passing. if it just suddenly goes, then what...

$700 prediction is extremely conservative IMO. i love this set, i'm sticking to that and i think it will do great. pass on it all you want. i'll take em.

this set deserves more love.

Great set. Great value. Honestly, not as iconic as the Eiffel Tower or Taj Mahal in the world outside the UK, but iconic enough to be an excellent investment. Problem with it ever reaching the levels of the previously mentioned sets is production levels and rarity. Way too many hoarded. Not rare at all.
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In which set should i invest? Pet Shop or Tower of Orthanc or...?

Can only achieve one. Thanx for ur reply:)

I invested in ToO so please go for the pet shop.

Kindest regards.

 

(edit: just kidding of course. Invest in what you like, both are ok)

Edited by biniou
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Hi Everyone,

 

Strange that I was on the Lego shop and I saw that the 6860 set was marked down to $55.98 and then showing a sold out status on their site.  It doesn't show a hard to find or retiring soon.  Is this usual for a set that has had a long life like this, or is it just a way of Lego clearing out their stock.

 

I guess it may be me being hopeful since I always was a fan of the batcave before the 6860 set replaced it.  What do you guys think?

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In which set should i invest? Pet Shop or Tower of Orthanc or...?

Can only achieve one. Thanx for ur reply:)

 

I invested in ToO so please go for the pet shop.

Kindest regards.

 

(edit: just kidding of course. Invest in what you like, both are ok)

 

I agree to what biniou says.

 

Both have potential and have their pros and cons.

 

Looking at PS you have a set which is part of a successful lineup of sets (the modulars).

Once it's sold out it will gain... don't know how much though... (that's the big con...)

 

On the other hand you have ToO which is a real nice set and especially LOTR Fans might want it someday.

I really like LOTR LEGO and The Hobbit LEGO as well, but to me it does not seem that the lineup is as successful as the modulars lineup. But still this set is unique.

 

The only question will be if you think that there will be more people who would buy LEGO for quite some money that already own other modulars and want the PS in their LEGO Neighbourhood or if you think that LOTR Fans (not all of them will be into LEGO...) or other LEGO collectors would prefer to have ToO.

Another critical question is: Which one will go EOL first?

 

Other sets that might be worth a look: TB (Tower Bridge), Ewok Village (EV), X-Wing UCS... personally I don't have any others on my wish list right now.

If by any chance I have some money left the next few months and there's still some left I will probably get me another ToO and another EV. (Because I already have as many PS/X-Wing/TB as I want to have... not because I think ToO or EV are an superior investment (I only add this so that you do not think "oh he's getting another ToO or EV... probably I should go for them too and not for PS (or else))).

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So far, the Technic world has been chaos free and this set was only launched in August 2013 so it still has legs. At the earliest, retiral in the summer and the normal course of events is it goes at the end of the year and gets the oficial tag in Jan/Feb 2016. Anything different would be a major surprise.

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I think the EOL of every set is always in the end of year. Only exceptions are:

a) some sets are sold out 2-3 months before expected EOL, so the stocks are cleared and TLG doesnt produce further wave (since it plans to EOL) - but this happen  nearly the end of year - in December, November, maximum in October (see the situation with TH, HH, etc).

B) it is a special set from limited production or seasonal set, and people buy more sets than expected (41999, Ideas, winter set with temporary retiring status during the year).

Am I right? Do you remember some unusual EOLs during the year?

Based on this logic there is no need to panic with 42009 and buy it till the autumn. Otherwise such sets are just taking the place in my storage and blocking my money for longer time.

Another good reason for waiting till October is that during this month is the most valuable period for buying - i can get double points + holiday bonus set. During the year I can get either double points without any polybag / bonus set or with a worthless bonus set (April) or just normal points with some interesting polybag (for example on May 4th).

The only exception, when I buy the sets during the year, is an extra discount for them, or if there is a real risk that they will disappear till the autumn from my local store.

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You are in a different market than the US, but in this market your statement is not accurate. Retirements happen throughout the year. In fact I am wondering what actually retired in nov/dec of any significance. I cannot think of anything. SSD was in the early third quarter , so not the end of of the year.

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You are in a different market than the US, but in this market your statement is not accurate. Retirements happen throughout the year. In fact I am wondering what actually retired in nov/dec of any significance. I cannot think of anything. SSD was in the early third quarter , so not the end of of the year.

 

 

that depends on what you mean by "Retired".  

 

1. if you mean lego likely stopped making them then there are quite a few that may have gone in nov/dec, though it is still too early to be sure.

2. if you mean are no long available at retail, then no I cant think of any thing big.

3. if you mean lego tagged them as officially retired, well, um has anything "retired" since SSD?

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that depends on what you mean by "Retired".  

 

1. if you mean lego likely stopped making them then there are quite a few that may have gone in nov/dec, though it is still too early to be sure.

2. if you mean are no long available at retail, then no I cant think of any thing big.

3. if you mean lego tagged them as officially retired, well, um has anything "retired" since SSD?

By retired I mean "Retired" via lego.  Until then it is still speculation.  When it says "retired product" that means via the manufacturing company (LEGO) it means retired.  Not hard or requiring of interpretation skills.

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Falling water on it's way out right?

 

It's not discounted the way the other retiring sets are on SAH, but signs seem to indicate that it is. It's gone from Sold Out to Delivery in 30 days to Call to Check Avail, and the only (Stateside) retailer that has them is B&******. So... Certainly appears to be.

 

The lack of a discount IS slightly concerning, given Empire and Sydney both got discounts. But who knows.

Edited by Achilles
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I know it's not a highly talked about line here, but the master builder academy sets seem to be done for. 2 of the 5 in the series are on the official 'retiring soon' page. All 5 of them have been out of stock on LEGO Shop at Home for some time. I bought the entire collection for my kid this past year. They might not be the best dollar per brick value, but they're nicely done sets. I also picked up a couple in the wild (Barnes and Noble is the only place I could find them) to keep for investment. I have a feeling these could be a sleeper, especially in the non-US areas where these weren't ever available.

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