Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Cross]

I feel like I'm in the "Land of Confusion".

Soooooo far off topic, but...

 

My wife/daughter are out watching Big Hero 6 tonight. I bought Disney's "Tarzan" at TRU while buying my 20 Rocket Raccoon's last Friday. My son and I are watching it as I type this, and Phil Collins did the ENTIRE soundtrack. Outstanding.

[TheOrcKing]

Plastic Kylie Minogue? Done.

I feel like I'm in the "Land of Confusion".

Nice. :good:

[biniou]

SOP

 

"SOP" ???

I can't figure for sure what it is.

 

(could it be the Sydney Opera ****ouse ?)

Edited November 25, 2014 by biniou

[cambridge02138]

"SOP" ???

I can't figure what it is.

Sydney Opera House

[beatpoppa]

Also, think about the appeal of the set; it doesn't take much to appreciate the aesthetic beauty of the Tower Bridge, Taj Mahal, etc. Imagine Lego putting out a Seven Wonders of the World set, Roman Colliseum, etc.- with true universal appeal. Big pieces and prices would not stall many from purchasing, were they serious admirers of those relics (of which there are many). The SOP isn't at that level.

 

Like the TH, the more elusive the set disappearing, the more lowly the QTY stocked by fellow investors, the more iconic the set (regardless of its artistic monotony from one collector's perspective), the greater the likelihood of post-EOL appreciation. This set will always have an interested audience to some degree.

I buy Tower Bridge over it every time I have choice for all the reason you enumerated but will reconsider my position going forward.

Excellent post.

[mudcatsfan]

Noticed something interesting and thought i'd share it.

 

Town hall looks like the BIG winner lately over the likes of say, Grand Emporium since Town Hall is $330 on Amazon and GE is just 250, but remember that GE cost 50 less. 

 

I ran a quick calculation over 4 of the recently disappeared sets, against a $3200 investment (i corrected for the investment differences after profits) and the Town Hall is actually only 4th best of the bunch. In fact, its only beating out R2D2, and many folks aren't even convinced that one is done.

 

Haunted House is currently king based on Amazon prices as of right now. 

 

                                     Cost Qty   Spent       Price             Total

Grand Emporium   $  150      21   $  3,150    $  250      $  5,250 +50 = $5,300

Town Hall               $  200      16   $  3,200    $  330     $  5,280        =  $5,280

R2D2                      $  180      18   $  3,240    $  280     $  5,040 -40 =  $5,000

Haunted House      $  180      18   $  3,240    $  365     $  6,570  -40 =  $6,530

SSD                        $  400       8    $  3,200    $  785     $  6,280        =  $6,280

Edited November 25, 2014 by mudcatsfan

[exciter1]

Noticed something interesting and thought i'd share it.

 

Town hall looks like the BIG winner lately over the likes of say, Grand Emporium since Town Hall is $330 on Amazon and GE is just 250, but remember that GE cost 50 less. 

 

I ran a quick calculation over 4 of the recently disappeared sets, against a $3200 investment (i corrected for the investment differences after profits) and the Town Hall is actually only 4th best of the bunch. In fact, its only beating out R2D2, and many folks aren't even convinced that one is done.

 

Haunted House is currently king based on Amazon prices as of right now. 

 

                                     Cost Qty   Spent       Price             Total

Grand Emporium   $  150      21   $  3,150    $  250      $  5,250 +50 = $5,300

Town Hall               $  200      16   $  3,200    $  330     $  5,280        =  $5,280

R2D2                      $  180      18   $  3,240    $  280     $  5,040 -40 =  $5,000

Haunted House      $  180      18   $  3,240    $  365     $  6,570  -40 =  $6,530

SSD                        $  400       8    $  3,200    $  785     $  6,280        =  $6,280

 

6 months from now, it's hard to tell what those numbers will look like.

[lego rules]

I think townhall will close down that margin significantly over the next year.  R2 is very early, wait until people start to relise it is actually done.  I can still get these in Lego stores, actually bought another 2 yesterday.

Edited November 25, 2014 by lego rules

[legone]

Town Hall and R2D2 went out of stock more recently, so the comparison is not fair.

 

A year or two from now, nobody knows. For example, the market for Town Halls will be much larger than that for Haunted House, assuming they will have roughly the same price. Not to mention Town Hall is less hoarded. Veterans have been reminding us about Haunted House for close to a year before OOS, while Town Hall caught everybody off guard.

[cladner]

75019 AT-TE sold out at LEGO Shop at Home

also a lot of stuff that was retiring soon is now call to check availability including Mandalorian Speeder which i have waaaay too many of from the stop and shop clearance.

also 75001 battle pack is call for availability.

 

there are some others too.

 

also minecraft the village and the nethers are sold out at shop at home.

Edited November 29, 2014 by cladner

[odysea11]

Olivia's House is officially sold out at LEGO Shop at Home. Could it be that this set has finally ridden off into the sunset? If so, that was a quiet departure which could ultimately be a good thing.

Or......it could be back pretty soon. Not really sure these days.

[cladner]

Olivia's House is officially sold out at LEGO Shop at Home. Could it be that this set has finally ridden off into the sunset? If so, that was a quiet departure which could ultimately be a good thing.

Or......it could be back pretty soon. Not really sure these days.

i'd say it went out in a blaze of glory with walmart cutting the price to $39 less than a week before it is sold out at shop at home.  a cagr dream situation.

[zskid00]

Is it just me or does it seem that LEGO is going to retire 30% of their current lineup with so many sets in sold out status the last couple weeks?  I will admit that I wasn't following the Shop at Home inventory nearly this closely the last couple years, so I'm not sure if it went down the same way, but there looks to be a lot of sold out items with no future availability posted.

[Young_Gun21]

Is it just me or does it seem that LEGO is going to retire 30% of their current lineup with so many sets in sold out status the last couple weeks? I will admit that I wasn't following the Shop at Home inventory nearly this closely the last couple years, so I'm not sure if it went down the same way, but there looks to be a lot of sold out items with no future availability posted.

This might seem like a lot but they have been pumping out the new sets like crazy. Next year they already have plans for a lot more sets. I think they are just weeding out some of the older sets. I think they also are trying a new technique when doing these retirements as well. This all is fulfilling Ed's prophecy of CHAOS.

[sroster]

[littlepuppi]

I think they maybe realised they had too many sets and were maybe struggling with the associated management of such a large catalog... With that in mind and with a view to maybe making it hard for resellers to pile in too heavily I wonder if they just stopped production of a certain sets literally around the same day...

[JRandall]

Is the Kingdoms Joust on it's way out?  Limit of 2 at S&**** and very few available anywhere else, OOS at Walmart, higher prices at Amazon and Ebay.

[Veegs]

Is the Kingdoms Joust on it's way out?  Limit of 2 at S&**** and very few available anywhere else, OOS at Walmart, higher prices at Amazon and Ebay.

 

I'd say yes...sold out in EU. The fact that it didn't sell out on Cyber Monday 20% off plus promos should warn you away, though. If I had to guess, it will get maybe a 30% reduction for Boxing Day.

 

Quite a few retailers have this in stock in CAN, too (at $149 MSRP) so even when it disappears from S&**** there will still be quite a bit of stock to get through.

[belljohn]

Well, I was hoping for some good BOGO from Target this week to pick up some more long term holds/Christmas 2015 stuff.  Now I feel like it is time to make a move on a few key sets that seem to be sold out at Lego (I am assuming this is good EOL indicator).  I am pretty much done picking up 2013 Friends sets but looking to add more Sail Barges (18 month run if gone), Batcaves, and Family Houses.  I think the Falcon is risky since a new one is most likely coming out.  I am selling mine this Christmas.  Might be the wrong choice though.

 

Any other sets with Lego supply issues to key on?

 

All of these are "Sold Out" on Lego USA.

 

Hard to find Sets:

21105, 21106 - Minecraft

7965 -- Falcon

 

Easier to find sets:

41005-41008 Friends sets

31012 - Family House

 

Available:

21103 -DeLoreon (sold out at Target)

75020 - Sail Barge

6860 - Batcave

79008 - LotR Pirate Ship (Call to check availability)

71000 - Arctic Batman (Call to check availability)

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Here's a list of recently sold out >

[Spanky]

I think they maybe realised they had too many sets and were maybe struggling with the associated management of such a large catalog... With that in mind and with a view to maybe making it hard for resellers to pile in too heavily I wonder if they just stopped production of a certain sets literally around the same day...

 

I'm a little suspicious that TLG has decided to increase profit margins across the board. Raising prices on existing sets would have been more obvious than retiring a bunch of old sets and introducing new sets with 10% more profit in them.

[belljohn]

TabbyBoy, thanks for your list.  Unexpected Gathering is good to know as the consensus best Hobbit set.  R2D2 and AA are interesting too since there is so much speculation about them.  What about Jabba's Sail Barge and the other Minecraft models 21105, 21106?

[Locutus001]

I don't see (many) more sets going EOL this year.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

TabbyBoy, thanks for your list.  Unexpected Gathering is good to know as the consensus best Hobbit set.  R2D2 and AA are interesting too since there is so much speculation about them.  What about Jabba's Sail Barge and the other Minecraft models 21105, 21106?

 

The Sail Barge is available to order, 10max.  21105/6 are also sold out but, below

[JRandall]

I'm a little suspicious that TLG has decided to increase profit margins across the board. Raising prices on existing sets would have been more obvious than retiring a bunch of old sets and introducing new sets with 10% more profit in them.

This is definitely the situation.  If you look at all the new sets and the licenses to boot you have increased prices on every set.  They can produce sets with fewer pieces moving forward and increase the prices 10% because people are paying, especially on titles like Minecraft and Super Heroes.